Trendspotting: Investing in eTail's Future

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If you’re reading this, you may be one of those people attached to their computer around the clock. In which case, you may be surprised to learn that, in real world terms, online retailing is still in its infancy, even if the baby is on some serious growth hormones. US online sales are expected to total $173 billion in 2010, compared with $134 billion in 2009, according to Forrester Research. That would be an annual growth of about 29%. So, last year’s total represented about 7% of all US retail sales. With that kind of potential, the Web is the focus for creative ideas of the kind that could exist only on the Web, ranging from the eminently practical to the fairly wacky, and coming from both established players and entrepreneurs. Right now, there are at least three areas of real creative energy in e-tailing: 

Who’s got the edge? Right now, it looks like a battle of the titans of ecommerce: Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY), each of which has its own strengths right now. And there are interesting newcomers in this space -- some of which have already been gobbled up by the big guys. Meanwhile, traditional retailers are dancing as fast as they can to catch up. Here’s a look at what’s happening now. Shopping "Events" The innovation here has originated mostly from start-ups. The early successes are high-fashion sites with a mostly female membership base. Sites like Gilt, RueLaLa, Net-a-Porter, and HauteLook made their names with “private sales” for “members only,” although signing up is a snap. Featured merchandise changes often, and email alerts notify members of new stuff, often in the form of a “flash sale” with a deadline.See Up-and-Coming Retailers: Gilt Groupe.Now, e-tailers of other kinds of merchandise are offering their own twists on the “flash sale” concept. An example is Woot.com, a site that offers just one good deal on a product every day, posted at midnight Texas time and available for 24 hours or until it sells out. Cute gimmick, eh? Estimates are that it grossed $71.6 million last year, and it’s now expanding from its gadget-heavy origins into wine, toys, and other products. And last week, Amazon announced it had bought Woot.com at an undisclosed price rumored to be about $110 million. The founders of Woot, who seem to specialize in cheeky copy, announced “More details forthcoming after we pick our eyeballs up off the floor.” For its part, eBay is browsing its own humongous base of existing content to create a Daily Deals site of items that are deeply discounted and offer free shipping, with email updates for more deals. Anything at all could turn up here. At last glance, the site was offering a Flying Screaming Pig Slingshot for $5.85 and a 500GB USB drive for $59.99. These are only a couple of the latest additions. Others are wilder, and scarier. Like auction site QuiBids.com, in which big-ticket items go for pennies to the lucky winner, but all competitors pay to enter bids until the clock runs out. As alluring and even addictive as these sites are, they’re all in the business of inventory clearance -- working with manufacturers or retailers to empty shelves by offering deep discounts. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. Mobile Shopping Remember just a couple of years ago when millions of people were putting their names on a national “do not call” list? Well, now they’re signing up for lists, at least if they’re delivered as text messages on their smartphones about flash sales.

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