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Writing in the New York Times in November 2003, Austan Goolsbee, then a professor at the University of Chicago, flamboyantly accused the government of "cooking" the books regarding unemployment.
"The situation has grown so dire," he said, "that we can't even tell whether the job market is recovering. The time has come to correct the official unemployment statistics to account for those left out."
Professor Goolsbee is now a top economic advisor to President Obama. Would he admit that the official jobless of 9.5% grossly underestimates the pain of job losses in America and do something to correct the situation?
Findings in recent IBD/TIPP polls suggest that now would be a good time to undertake such a project.
According to Labor Department data, the civilian labor force in June totaled 153.7 million people, 14.6 million (9.5%) of whom were unemployed. But in the latest IBD/TIPP poll conducted last week, 28.6% of respondents said at least one member of their household is unemployed and looking for work. This number for June was 27.8% and for May 28%.
When we project our household job-seekers rate and calculate the share of Americans who are unemployed and looking for work, we get a job-seeker rate of 24.1% for July for a total of 37 million Americans vs. the government's aforementioned 14.6 million.
The difference between our crude job-seeker rate of 24.1% and the Labor Department's jobless rate of 9.5% is night and day. The difference between our job-seekers (37 million) and Labor's unemployed (14.6 million) is a staggering 22.4 million. How does one account for 22 million people? Which is the reality?
To come up with its monthly jobless rate, the Labor Department surveys some 60,000 households. But the popular unemployment measure that results, dubbed U-3, is not a good indicator, because the department counts as "unemployed" only those who report actively looking for work in the past four weeks.
Some 8.6 million Americans responding to a tight job market have taken part-time jobs, though they'd like to be working full-time. In calculating U-3, the government counts these "underemployed" people as "employed," which helps reduce the unemployment rate.
Another 6.5 million individuals in the government survey say they want a job, but they are counted as not being part of the labor force ("persons not in the labor force but who currently want a job"). This category includes 2.6 million who are marginally attached persons. Of these passive job-seekers, some have other obligations but would take a job if offered.
Hysteria: A federal report indicates that the runaway Toyota problem was mainly driver error, not a manufacturing or design issue. So when do the official government and media apologies begin? Toyota is now thought of as the company that makes cars that suddenly and unintentionally ...
Stimulus: The White House now claims that its various stimulus and bailout efforts have "saved or created" 2.5 million to 3.6 million jobs. If so, they must have been created not in the United States, but in Fantasyland. We hate to be negative, but the claims made by the administration's top ...
Mideast: Years of a growing nuclear threat plus recent developments are converging to signify that the time for waiting is over. Either the United States, or the Israelis backed by the U.S., must act against Iran. 'To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose," the Book of ...
As the BP oil spill grew and spread and sullied beaches and habitats, the Obama administration dithered for weeks, then rejected Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal's request to build sand and rock berms to keep the goo out. Dredge-and-fill might damage the environment, it imperiously ruled — as ...
When politicians on Capitol Hill start to forecast the demise of once-sacrosanct middle-class tax cuts, the budget situation must be dire. Steny Hoyer surprised many when he issued the opening salvo in what will be a war over expiring middle-class tax cuts. Mr. Hoyer noted, "We need to have a ...
Posted By: Osamas_Pajamas(310) on 7/15/2010 | 1:08 AM ET
To survive the 2010 election the Democrats need a broadcast narrative propagated by the Democrat-captured media, to the effect that the Barak Hushpuppy OhBummer regime has saved or created millions of jobs --- and how would we verify that assertion? And further --- that the economy is improving and that salvation-by-OhBummer and the OhBummer Wrecking Crew is just around the corner --- right after the 2010 election... Can ya dig it?
Posted By: InCincy(1120) on 7/14/2010 | 9:56 PM ET
Think about it, more covearge on oily birds than epidemic unemployment. One should never waste a crisis (do diostract from another that is far worse). More covearge on a few Toyotas than unemployment and I wager that more people have committed suicide due to teh economy tahn were killed in the cars. With every word I whisper, you'll go deeper and deeper into sleep. With every breathe you take you'll.................
Posted By: acierno(1795) on 7/14/2010 | 8:57 PM ET
goolsbee is nothing more then a mouthpiece for obama, obama and his poloicies have driven the unemployment rate up to the levels of a depression. when americans look around they know what they see and its not pretty and will probably get worst. they are not fooled by statements from the media or obamas henchmen.
Posted By: kwg1(295) on 7/14/2010 | 7:58 PM ET
It has been said that you can make statistics say anything you want them to say! Here is a website which brings reality to these mauled statistics we now get from our government which are always trimmed to say what they want us to believe. As the past CEO of Godfathers Pizza Herman Cain said: "They Think You're Stupid" Here is the site: http://www.shadowstats.com/
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