Second Quarter Earnings Season Beat Rate

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lt may seem like earnings season has been going on forever now, but we're actually just about a third of the way through.  Through yesterday, 662 US companies had reported earnings since the reporting period began with Alcoa's release on July 12th.  From today through the end of earnings season (Wal-Mart's report date on 8/17), 1,518 companies will report.  Tomorrow and next Thursday will be the biggest earnings days, with 250 and 275 companies reporting, respectively.

Below we highlight the percentage of US companies that have beaten earnings estimates as the days have passed this earnings season.  At the start of last week, the beat rate was 73%, and it has trickled slightly lower to its current level of 71.1%.  This season's beat rate is currently 9 percentage points higher than the average of 62% since 1998.

S&P 500 stocks have been beating earnings estimates at a much higher rate.  Through yesterday, 78.8% of S&P 500 companies had beaten expectations.  Interestingly, the high beat rate for the S&P 500 hasn't translated into better stock performance.  The average one-day change for all stocks on their report days has been +0.55% this season.  For S&P 500 stocks, the average one-day change in reaction to earnings has been -0.34%.

 

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