Why It Still Feels Like a Recession

Are you one of the many Americans who thinks the recession isn’t over? Alan Greenspan feels your pain.

Most Americans believe the downturn is ongoing. A recent Bloomberg National Poll, for example, found that 71 percent of Americans believe the United States is still in a recession. A recent Quinnipiac University poll had similar results.

America’s gross domestic product, however, has been growing for a year, and many other economic indicators have also turned upward. As a result, most economists I’ve spoken with believe the recession technically ended sometime last summer. (We’ll know for sure when the official Business Cycle Dating Committee rules.)

Now historically, consumers seem to be the last ones to recognize a shift in the overall economy, either positive or negative. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that public opinion now lags the change in economic growth.

But there may be something different about the current recovery that makes it especially hard for laypeople to recognize it as such: persistent joblessness. Prajakta Bhide at Roubini Global Economics last week noted that the near double-digit unemployment rates explain why “the rest of this year is probably still going to feel like a recession," and it seems that other economists are likewise helping legitimize Americans’ insistence that the downturn, in some ways, continues.

On “Meet the Press” on Sunday, for example, Alan Greenspan explained why it might be hard for some people to accept that the economy has turned around:

MR. ALAN GREENSPAN:  …I think we’re in a pause in a recovery, a modest recovery.  But a pause in the modest recovery feels like quasi recession.  Our problem, basically, is that we have a very distorted economy in the sense that there has been a significant recovery in a limited area of the economy amongst high-income individuals who have just had $800 billion added to their 401(k)s and are spending it and are carrying what consumption there is.  Large banks, who are doing much better, and large corporations, whom you point out and the — and everyone’s pointing out, are in excellent shape.  The rest of the economy, small business, small banks, and a very significant amount of the labor force, which is in tragic unemployment, long-term unemployment, that is pulling the economy apart.  The average of those two is what we are looking at, but they are fundamentally two separate types of economy.

In other words, many Americans believe they’re still in a recession because they are indeed still facing recessionlike conditions; the turmoil isn’t just in their heads. Perhaps Europe isn’t the only place confronting the challenge of a two-speed economy.

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Catherine Rampell is the economics editor at nytimes.com.

David Leonhardt writes the Economic Scene column, which appears in The Times on Wednesdays.

Motoko Rich is an economics reporter for The New York Times.

Sewell Chan writes about economic issues from Washington D.C.

Jack Ewing writes about European economics and business from Frankfurt.

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Economics doesn’t have to be complicated. It is the study of our lives "” our jobs, our homes, our families and the little decisions we face every day. Here at Economix, David Leonhardt, Catherine Rampell and other contributors will analyze the news and use economics as a framework for thinking about the world. We welcome feedback, at economix@nytimes.com.

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How the Government Dealt With Past Recessions

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A map of unemployment rates across the United States, now through January.

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Apture allows readers to dig deeper into a subject without ever leaving the blog post. When you click on any link marked by the icons , , or , you will be able to view video, reference materials, images and other related media. Please e-mail your feedback and thoughts on this feature to apture@nyt.com.

An accounting of the government’s rescue package.

Three economists explain what worked and what didn't.

A map of unemployment rates across the United States, now through January.

Faces, numbers and stories from behind the downturn.

A series about the surge in consumer debt and the lenders who made it possible.

A series exploring the origins of the financial crisis, from Washington to Wall Street.

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