The worst labor market in 60 years has yet to show signs of revival, even amid widespread predictions by economists that the recession ended a year ago. America's unemployment rate remained at a steep 9.5 percent in the July jobs report released Aug. 6, and the government's broader measure that combines unemployment and underemployment is even higher at 16.5 percent.
That's bad news for the job prospects of most workers, from blue-collar employees looking to earn a paycheck at a retail store or on a factory floor to white-collar managers seeking a spot in a cubicle or an office. But the unemployment numbers seem positively dire for teenagers. The jobless rate for teenagers 16 to 19 years old was 26.1 percent in July, up from around 15 percent before the recession struck.
The employment-population ratio—the ratio of the number of people employed to the total working-age population—is a broader measure of labor market health. The teen employment-population rate has fallen by about 20 percentage points over the past decade to 25.6 percent, according to a July report by scholars at Northeastern University's Center for Labor Market Studies. In The Nation's Youth Labor Market, 2000-2010: The Descent into the Depression, the authors say that record-low post-World War II employment rates for teens have been set continuously from 2007 on. Of course, these figures include teens that have chosen school over work.
Still, the cold numbers seem best captured by the anguished lyrics from The Who's rock anthem Baba O'Riley:
Don't cry Don't raise your eye It's only teenage wasteland
Of course, it's hardly surprising that teens have had a tough time finding work. Who hasn't? And teens by definition don't have many skills to offer wary employers. They're at the bottom of the hiring hierarchy. This time around, the downturn was so deep that teens have lost out to older workers with experience and skill willing to take an entry-level job so long as it comes with a paycheck. They may be losing out to newer immigrants, too, who tend to be under 30.
The hike in the hourly minimum wage from $5.15 in 2007 to $7.25 in 2009 may have hurt a bit. Yet much economic research into the impact of an increase in the minimum wage on employment shows it has little effect. The health of the economy is a far bigger factor. Amid a fiscal squeeze, the government has cut back on federally funded summer jobs.
Still, the decline in youth employment is so precipitous that it's raising alarm bells. Does the low employment rate for the nation's 16- to 19-year-olds signal that America is creating a lost generation? It looks like the answer is no…and yes.
No, because for a majority of youngsters the decline in teenage unemployment reflects a long-term trend toward increased investment in schooling. Specifically, enrollment rates are at record levels with more than 70 percent of recent high school graduates going to college, up roughly 25 percent since 1985. More than half of those ages 16 to 19 were enrolled in summer school sometime in June through August 2009. That's close to three times higher than 20 years earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Affluent parents are willing to pay for extracurricular activities that may enhance a college résumé, such as community service. And, of course, kids need time to be kids. "Youngsters from middle- and upper-income households are working less and schooling more before college," says Anthony Carnevale, director of the Georgetown University Center on Education & the Workforce. "It's an investment in human capital."
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