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Time to fact check the Democratic leadership's claims on job growth, given the smoke bombs being set off in this debate as the midterm elections loom.
First, the data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued a press release on the new unemployment numbers showing U.S. employers cut 54,000 jobs in August.
The unemployment rate, calculated using a separate household survey, edged up to 9.6% from 9.5% as more job seekers entered the labor force, versus the peak of 10.1% in October 2009. July payrolls were revised to a loss of 54,000 from an original estimate of a 131,000 drop.
Private-sector companies added 67,000 jobs, following an upwardly revised 107,000 gain in July. Manufacturers shed 27,000 jobs, after adding 34,000 the previous month.
Economists now attribute a chunk of the decline in the jobless rate to 9.6% versus 10.1% in October ’09 to the 1.4 million people who left labor force since May. Add in 1.4 million people, and the jobless rate zooms higher to 10.3%, says Miller Tabak strategist Dan Greenhaus.
Deutsche Bank also says the private sector created a net total of 689,000 jobs since November 2009, the point when the jobs picture turned positive. That 689,000 is anemic compared to the 8.5 million private jobs lost in the downturn, Deutsche says, noting too that monthly private sector job creation is trending down.
Now to fact checking the claims—Fox News analyst James Farrell has a go at it:
“We will have job growth of 250,000 to 500,000 a month.”
- Claim: In an April 23, 2010 fundraiser, Vice President Joseph Biden stated "Well, I'm here to tell you some time in the next couple of months we're going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month."
FBN Fact check: What today's BLS employment release stated: "Total nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (-54,000) in August."
Automotive workers worked through the "summer shutdown":
- Claim: In the July 2010 report titled "Rebuilding the Auto Industry," the administration claimed that "2010 is on track to be the strongest year of job growth in the auto industry since 1999.” To highlight the job growth, the report highlighted "the recent experience of the big three automakers" of "Working through the Summer Shutdown: Nine of GM’s eleven manufacturing and assembly plants, including Hamtramck, skipped the customary summer plant shutdown to meet growing consumer demand."
FBN Fact check: The latest employment release from the BLS indicates that automotive job numbers were inflated in July because workers did not "work through the Summer shutdown" – instead the timing of the "Summer shutdown" was adjusted to fall in August: "A decline in motor vehicles and parts (-22,000) offset a gain of similar magnitude in July as the industry departed somewhat from its usual layoff and recall pattern for annual retooling."
Health care jobs will boom after Obamacare is signed:
- Claim: On February 25, 2010, in discussing Obamacare, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stated: "So this bill is not only about the health security of America. It's about jobs. In its life it will create four million jobs -- 400,000 jobs almost immediately; jobs, again, in the health care industry, but in the entrepreneurial world as well."
FBN Fact check: What today's BLS employment release stated: "Thus far in 2010, the health care industry has added an average of 20,000 jobs per month, about in line with the average monthly job growth in 2009."
Construction employment will increase during the "Summer of Recovery"
- Claim: In the report touting the start of the "Summer of Recovery," Vice President Biden wrote: "As summer construction season kicks into high gear, commitments made late last year to infrastructure investments will transition from committed dollars into tangible action—thousands of projects will break ground and thousands more will increase activity and hiring."
FBN Fact check: What today's BLS employment release indicates: That claim might have been true, if Chicago construction workers had not gone on strike and delayed state and local construction projects to secure a 3.25% pay increase each year for the next three years (which the union workers said was necessitated by the rising costs of their health insurance premiums – the same rising premiums that Obamacare was supposed to drive down): "Construction employment was up (+19,000) in August. This change partially reflected the return to payrolls of 10,000 workers who were on strike in July."
Elizabeth MacDonald is the stocks editor for Fox Business Network. She is recognized as one of the top prize-winning business journalists in the country, and has received 14 awards, including the top prize in business journalism, the Gerald Loeb Award for Distinguished Business Journalism, and the Newswomen's Club of New York Front Page Award for Excellence in Investigative Journalism.
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