After Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's speeches, press conferences, and interviews in New York City last week, it's obvious the Iranian president lives in a parallel universe. This has been difficult for many in the West to grasp. The Western reflex to believe that there are "universal truths" is irrepressible.
Read more Ohio Swings Back Rob Portman's association with Bush isn't hurting him at all. BY Fred Barnes October 4, 2010, Vol. 16, No. 03Youngstown, Ohio
Read more It's the Policies, Stupid Economic uncertainty hurts. BY Irwin M. Stelzer document.write(''); Morning Examiner: Privatize libraries? We still have libraries? Morning Examiner: Privatize libraries? We still have libraries? Evidence points to left-wing activist as source of Boehner affair rumor Local Tea Party group may have uncovered massive vote fraud in Texas Local Tea Party group may have uncovered massive vote fraud in Texas more Monday,September 27, 2010 Wonk Love College branding (and not the fraternity initiation kind either). BY Victorino Matus "Lady al Qaeda" and KSM BY John McCormack It's the Policies, Stupid Economic uncertainty hurts. BY Irwin M. Stelzer Happy Hour Links BY John McCormack The GOP's Plan to Insure People with Pre-Existing Conditions Confusion on the right. BY John McCormack Monday, September 27, 2010 It's the Policies, Stupid Economic uncertainty hurts. BY Irwin M. Stelzer September 25, 2010 12:00 AM $(document).ready(function() { fontResizer('14px','16px','18px'); }); SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: unescape(encodeURIComponent('It\'s the Policies, Stupid')), url: unescape(encodeURIComponent('http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/its-policies-stupid')) }, {button:true} );It's the policies, stupid. That should be the guiding light for everyone trying to figure out the course of the U.S. economy for the rest of the year. As things now stand, in the absence of any dramatic policy shift, the economy should continue on its present path"”slow growth, a bit of job creation but not enough to move the unemployment rate more than a tenth of a percentage point or two, a sluggish although perhaps more stable housing sector, and a stock market trying to decide if the world is coming to an end or we are on the brink of a new golden age.
Unfortunately for forecasters, it is impossible to predict whether new policies will be put in place. And, if they are, how long it will take for the shift to make itself felt outside of the world of politics"”in the real world in which consumers patrol the aisles of Wal-Marts, investors look for opportunities, and workers look for jobs.
We do know that the Federal Reserve Board is seriously thinking about launching the good ship QE2, the current euphemism for printing money. Which says something about the speed with which the economic outlook changes. It seems like only yesterday that the Fed was considering tightening by shrinking its balance sheet, Fedspeak for not renewing or replacing some of the loans it had outstanding. Now, new data have the Fed's monetary policy gurus worried that the price level might just turn down, producing a deflation of the sort that has bedeviled Japan for decades. Of course no central banker dare mention the D word: the Fed prefers, "Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the [Monetary Policy] Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability."
document.write('');If we know anything about what drives Fed policy it is that its fear of deflation exceeds its fear of inflation"”the former being thought much more difficult to reverse. Perhaps, but only perhaps. Politicians whom the Fed must keep happy love inflation, since it initially produces a feel-good factor, gives them cheap money with which to repay debts they have run up appeasing various constituencies, and (they believe) creates jobs. The once fiercely held independence of central bankers from politics is dead, or at least in intensive care, a victim of the onslaught of the recession that the experts say ended this past June after 18 months, two months longer than the recessions of 1973-75 and 1981-82. So central bankers might just be tempted to pander to inflation-loving pols.
For now the Fed is prepared to "provide additional accommodation if needed," leaving inflation worries for another day. Translation: We have our finger on the "start" button of the printing presses, but are stalling so we can decide if such signs as the decline in the corporate debt-default rate to pre-crisis levels, an unexpected increase in capital goods orders, and the August increases in the construction of new homes and in retail sales, will enable the QE2 to remain in port.
If the Fed pushes the button, it will increase the money supply by buying Treasury bonds. That should keep interest rates down, and depress the dollar. Indeed, the very possibility of the launch of QE2 already has the dollar heading south. Which under ordinary circumstances would be good news for exporters, and drive up the price of imports, helping to reduce the trade deficit. But both the Chinese regime and the Japanese government (the latter to the tune of a $23 billion purchase of dollars with more to come) are intervening in currency markets to make sure that the yuan and the yen, respectively, do not rise so much relative to the dollar as to cut into the flow of exports to America.
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/* */Youngstown, Ohio
It's the policies, stupid. That should be the guiding light for everyone trying to figure out the course of the U.S. economy for the rest of the year. As things now stand, in the absence of any dramatic policy shift, the economy should continue on its present path"”slow growth, a bit of job creation but not enough to move the unemployment rate more than a tenth of a percentage point or two, a sluggish although perhaps more stable housing sector, and a stock market trying to decide if the world is coming to an end or we are on the brink of a new golden age.
Unfortunately for forecasters, it is impossible to predict whether new policies will be put in place. And, if they are, how long it will take for the shift to make itself felt outside of the world of politics"”in the real world in which consumers patrol the aisles of Wal-Marts, investors look for opportunities, and workers look for jobs.
We do know that the Federal Reserve Board is seriously thinking about launching the good ship QE2, the current euphemism for printing money. Which says something about the speed with which the economic outlook changes. It seems like only yesterday that the Fed was considering tightening by shrinking its balance sheet, Fedspeak for not renewing or replacing some of the loans it had outstanding. Now, new data have the Fed's monetary policy gurus worried that the price level might just turn down, producing a deflation of the sort that has bedeviled Japan for decades. Of course no central banker dare mention the D word: the Fed prefers, "Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the [Monetary Policy] Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability."
If we know anything about what drives Fed policy it is that its fear of deflation exceeds its fear of inflation"”the former being thought much more difficult to reverse. Perhaps, but only perhaps. Politicians whom the Fed must keep happy love inflation, since it initially produces a feel-good factor, gives them cheap money with which to repay debts they have run up appeasing various constituencies, and (they believe) creates jobs. The once fiercely held independence of central bankers from politics is dead, or at least in intensive care, a victim of the onslaught of the recession that the experts say ended this past June after 18 months, two months longer than the recessions of 1973-75 and 1981-82. So central bankers might just be tempted to pander to inflation-loving pols.
For now the Fed is prepared to "provide additional accommodation if needed," leaving inflation worries for another day. Translation: We have our finger on the "start" button of the printing presses, but are stalling so we can decide if such signs as the decline in the corporate debt-default rate to pre-crisis levels, an unexpected increase in capital goods orders, and the August increases in the construction of new homes and in retail sales, will enable the QE2 to remain in port.
If the Fed pushes the button, it will increase the money supply by buying Treasury bonds. That should keep interest rates down, and depress the dollar. Indeed, the very possibility of the launch of QE2 already has the dollar heading south. Which under ordinary circumstances would be good news for exporters, and drive up the price of imports, helping to reduce the trade deficit. But both the Chinese regime and the Japanese government (the latter to the tune of a $23 billion purchase of dollars with more to come) are intervening in currency markets to make sure that the yuan and the yen, respectively, do not rise so much relative to the dollar as to cut into the flow of exports to America.
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