It's Time for Some Cold, Hard Truths

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It is beleaguering. Beyond belief. Let me give you some examples of the struggle. Apple (AAPL). Before the tablet came out, when the company first revealed the name of it, the iPad, the catcalls were incredible. Amazing, even. "What was this superfluous device, something no one needed because we had smartphones and netbooks? Why did we need this gizmo? Who would possibly get it?" Now, less than a few months later, the possibility of selling 40 million iPads -- that's right, 40 million -- may be in the cards if the company can simply make them to meet worldwide demand. Where are all of the people who laughed at the device? Where are all the snickerers who told us that the hype was a good reason to sell the stock? How can they get away with it? And yet they did. Exhibit B: Also Apple. Not that long ago there was an issue with the iPhone 4's antenna. The media and the shorts were everywhere saying that this antenna was the iPhone killer. When Steve Jobs refuted it directly, people dismissed him. We were all supposed to see this dramatic decline in sales. What did I do? I urged you to buy deep-in-the-money calls here. I came on TV, after hours of hearing what a disaster this was for Apple, and I said that it wasn't even an issue. A nonissue. I was greeted as if I were from Mars. Where are the people who said this? Where are those who called me out or mocked me? What happened to them? How can they get away with it? And yet they did. Now, let's go conservative. Not that long ago, when Verizon (VZ) was in the mid-$20s, I said that this company could raise the dividend many times and that it has humongous cash flow and was well run, and that FiOS would be terrific. I was inundated with people who told me the balance sheet was in tatters, that it was all lies, that I was drinking the Kool-Aid. I was right: The dividend keeps going up, and as the retiring CFO, John Killian, said on my show last night, the cash flow is exploding from all of the wireless business, which he says is in the early innings. How did the critics get away with it? And yet they did. Or just take IBM (IBM). Universal outcry that it was a terrible quarter. I said it was totally on plan, and I was greeted with that same level of skepticism and contempt. Now the stock is about to take out the level it was at before the quarter. $10 billion buyback. How did the critics get away with it? They are still doing it! DuPont (DD) may be down today and Caterpillar (CAT) may have been down when they reported, but I highlighted them as accidental high yielders that were buys when almost everyone despised them. I stuck my neck out 50% ago on Eaton (ETN) saying that its dividend was safe. Eaton and DuPont have since boosted their dividends and I expect the same from CAT. Where are the people who said the patent cliff would be too high for DuPont, or said that Eaton had overpaid for some European business, or that CAT would be a casualty of China or U.S. infrastructure or European weakness? Crickets. Or how about the euro? When the Germans and the French decided no more short-selling when the euro was at $1.18 against the dollar, when the IMF came in to save Greece, it was a terrific time to buy ... just when the press pronounced the euro dead and the pundits decided that the IMF was a paper tiger. 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