Remember me
"Help, I need somebody. Help, not just anybody. Help, you know I need someone. Heeeelp!â? --The Beatles We don't "do" acrimony in these parts. It's always been our contention that we could get our message across without resorting to the vitriolic banter that has seemingly consumed society. We have, however, called it as we saw it, even when the message wasn't particularly pleasant or the folks being discussed were standing atop a pedestal. Old school Minyans will remember our raised eyebrows when discussing the legacy of Alan Greenspan (as he was hailed as an economic maestro), the immunity of Franklin Raines (before Fannie Mae was a pariah), and the solvency of financial institutions. Heck, we humbly offered we would enter a "prolonged period of socioeconomic malaise entirely more depressing than a recession" in 2006 when it wasn't in our economic interest to do so. As bearish as we were when the storm formed on the horizon, our intention is to position ourselves accordingly as we edge through this process. We often muse that The Great Depression was a construct of optimism and in order to get through this, we needed to go through it. While the Depression was an era rather than an event, 75% of the population still worked, kids went to school, and powerful franchises such as Disney (DIS), Washington Post (WPO), Texas Instruments (TXN), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), and Tyson Foods (TSN) were birthed. The one-in-five Americans currently underemployed will roll their eyes at that statement -- perhaps with good reason -- but history will repeat itself with time and, yes, price. The trick to this trade is the rules of engagement that are shifting on the fly. We saw it with the ad hoc drugs administered by policymakers in 2008 and as we sit in the Eye of the Financial Storm, the delicate state of credibility -- fingered in 2007 as the issue at hand for the markets at large -- hangs in the balance. This morning, Bloomberg ran a story that the Fed is asking dealers to estimate the size and impact of their debt purchases. With interest rates near zero -- and recent auctions attracting a negative yield -- this is akin to a puppeteer asking his audience for advice on how to pull the strings... as the curtain is about to lift! One could argue we need all hands on deck to identify the proper "fix" if there is one, and the chefs that brewed the toxic stew are best equipped to measure ingredients that will make it more palatable. The risk, of course, is the collective psychology. While free markets can be manipulated guided through fiscal and monetary directives, we know all too well that free will, be them sellers or bears, can never be caged. Random Thoughts
R.P.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
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