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By Robert Rubin
Published: November 1 2010 22:25 | Last updated: November 1 2010 22:25
After the worst economic downturn in 80 years, which continues to cause immense hardship, the prospects for the US economy are the most complex and uncertain in my adult lifetime, creating a difficult decision-making environment for policymakers and markets. There are realistic chances of a healthy recovery in the shorter term. However, we face enormous headwinds: high unemployment and low job growth; both a decline in fiscal demand and unsustainably high federal deficits; excess capacity; business uncertainty; weak consumer financial conditions; and much else.
So, the probabilities are much greater that growth will be slow and bumpy, and unemployment high, for an extended period. A double dip, however, seems relatively unlikely, because jobs and investment show some growth, and exports are strong.
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