Note:There is no Investment Strategy for XXXX. The most recent Investment Strategy from XXXX is available below.
Note: There is no Investment Strategy for November 15. The most recent Investment Strategy from November 8 is available below.
â??It was always the ubiquitous they, those indefinable conspirators who would inevitably force the market to go the opposite way you were playing it. They were the rumormongers who forced stock and commodity prices to fluctuate wildly regardless of the economic climate. They were the ones who toyed with the military-industrial complex of the fifties and sixties and then with the oil powers of the seventies. They profited from those long lines of gas-hungry cars and the shortages of everything from aluminum to wheat. They were the brains, the real insiders with all the money to manipulate the markets to make more. They were the immovable forces that gave you that lonely feeling that you were up against it, the ones that always profited by your mistakes. They were the ones who used pit gossip to create doubts about your stature as a shrewd trader. They were the enemy; heartless, calculating, always on the offensive, forever elusive. They were everything you werenâ??t. Paul had become obsessed with the they factor to the point where he would rationalize away his own trading blunders. They, of course, were always around to take the blame for his poor judgment. Damn, were they cunning. Sometimes they would suck you into the market by letting you win first; then, like a shifty hustler, they would wipe you out. They would always see you as just a small-time Charlie Potatoes, a Fast Eddie Felson squeezed between Minnesota Fats and Willie Mosconi in a game of cutthroat nine ball. It always worked. You could never learn your lesson. They knew just how greedy you were and that small profits would never satisfy you. And just when you were raking it in, inevitably they would lower the boom.â?
. . . The New Gatsbys, by Bob Tamarkin
Obviously Iâ??m back in the country after a 10-day hiatus from watching the markets. So what have they done to the markets in my absence? Well, the â??buying stampedeâ? that began on September 1st is still intact since the D-J Industrial Average (DJIA/11203.55) has yet to decline for more than three consecutive sessions before resuming its upward onslaught. Recall that â??buying stampedesâ? typically last 17 to 25 sessions with only one- to three-session pauses and/or pullbacks before exhausting themselves. Itâ??s true that some have extended for as many as 30 sessions, but it is rare to have one go for more than 30 days. In fact, I can count on one hand the stampedes that have lasted for more than 35 sessions. That day-count sequence, when combined with the short-term overbought condition of late October, is why I turned cautious (but not bearish) before the mid-term elections. Clearly that stance was wrong-footed, yet in these markets it is better to â??lose face and save skin.â? Interestingly, the overbought condition that existed at the beginning of November has been corrected by the ~4% pullback in the DJIA, as can be seen in the chart of the McClellan Oscillator (overbought and oversold indicator) on page 3. Said pullback also saw the DJIA successfully test its 50-day moving average (currently at 11009). Moreover, I have learned the hard way it is tough to turn the equity markets down between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
That jubilant seasonality becomes especially true in mid-term election years, for as the good folks at Bespoke Investment Group note, â??The S&P 500â??s performance following mid-term elections is quite positive. One year after election day, the S&P 500 averages a gain of 15.8% with positive returns every year (since 1946)!â? Bespoke goes on to comment about comparisons between now and the 1994 stock market environment. While many people remember the stock market rallying right after the 1994 mid-term elections, the rally didnâ??t actually begin until mid-December. A more apt comparison might be 1966 when the Democrats lost 48 seats in the House, and three seats in the Senate, leaving the DJIA range-bound between 780 and 824 into year-end before embarking on a rally that would lift the senior index 26.7% from its pre-election low (744.32) in October of 1966 into its September 1967 high (943.08).
Speaking of seasonality, while our energy analysts have been correct in their negativity on natural gas, history shows that NATGAS tends to make a price low in the September/October time frame. And despite both supply and demand dynamics currently skewed bearishly, NATGAS appears to have bottomed last month around $3.21 per MCF and currently changes hands at $4.16 basis the December 2010 futures contract. Moreover, I have to ask the question, â??What do they know that we donâ??t know?â? Plainly this is a reference to CNOOC (Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation), which entered into a billion dollar deal with Chesapeake Energy (CHK/$22.64/Market Perform) on its Eagle Ford Shale project. While Eagle Ford contains oil, it is largely a natural gas play. As well, what does Chevron (CVX/$83.94/Outperform) know that caused it to purchase Atlas Energy (ATLS/$43.58/Not Covered) last week, which is another largely natural gas company. Of course both of these deals follow last yearâ??s Exxon Mobil (XOM/$70.54/Market Perform) $25 billion takeover of NATGAS producer XTO Energy. Obviously over the long-term some industry heavyweights believe natural gas is a viable investment. Still, in the intermediate-term our energy analysts are likely right in their negative stance. However, in the short-term NATGAS prices look higher to me (please see the second chart on page 3); and itâ??s worth mentioning that of the more than 100 markets I Monitor on a weekly basis NATGAS was the largest gainer last week with a 4.8% rally (basis the Henry Hub spot price). That near-term bullish view of natural gas also â??footsâ? with my forecast of a colder than anticipated winter due to the strengthening La Nina weather pattern and the large amounts of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. That combination has played havoc with the Hadley Cell Winds, causing the â??tropicsâ? to expand (see previous reports for details). For these reasons I would continue to overweight energy stocks in portfolios.
As for the economy, while I was traveling exports out of Long Beach surged 14.4%, the NAHBâ??s housing starts were revised upward for July and August (and increased slightly in September), the NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism rose, Manufacturing Industrial Production improved and is growing at an +8.2% annualized rate, the Fedâ??s Senior Loan Officer Survey indicated banks have eased their lending standards, the U.S Trade Balance narrowed, retail sales rose 1.2% (and are up 7.7% year-over-year, reinforcing my belief the Christmas â??selling seasonâ? will be stronger than most expect), and the Philadelphia Fed Index jumped to 22.5 in November versus +1.0 in October. All of this suggests real GDP for 3Q10 is on track to be revised upwardly to approximately 2.7%. While thatâ??s not great, itâ??s not bad either! The â??badâ? remains employment; and while that looks to be at â??steady stateâ? rate, private sector job growth is not strong enough to lower our unemployment rate. Hereâ??s the problem, in my opinion. The first two-thirds of this decade saw production employment decline by approximately 2.4 million jobs. Most of those displaced workers found jobs in the construction industry. However, in 2007 the construction industryâ??s â??bubble burst,â? with an attendant loss of those jobs, exposing the structural unemployment problems we are currently experiencing. Unfortunately, the U.S. is ill-equipped to deal with this in the short/intermediate-term. Over the longer-term I am confident â??creative destructionâ? will cause labor, and capital, to move from dying industries to growth industries, thus ameliorating the employment situation. Yet the risk is our politicians wonâ??t wait long enough for this sequence to occur. Indeed, for political reasons they may take the route of â??cavingâ? to the employment figures due to an outbreak of populism that leads to protectionist policies aimed at China. Ladies and gentlemen, while politically popular, slapping punitive trade tariffs on countries like China is a dangerous road to travel.
Meanwhile, China is attempting to cool its economic growth rate, and pace of inflation, at least that is the official spin. A â??right brainâ? observation of Chinaâ??s recent interest rate ratchets, and increased reserve requirements, might suggest China is actually attempting to raise the value of its currency. If true, such a revaluation would be HUGE in terms of rebalancing the Worldâ??s economies, as well as huge for our economic recovery. Indeed, China needs to consider Brazilâ??s example whereby Brazil decided to move (at the margin) from a manufacturing, and export, driven business model towards creating more domestic demand. Accordingly, between 2005 and 2007 Brazil raised the value of its currency, yet its economy remains pretty spunky. I believe China will eventually adopt a similar strategy, realizing that its manufacturing/export driven model will eventually fade as the Vietnams of the world inherit said model (I am bullish on Vietnam). Further, I think a deal will be struck to achieve such â??endsâ? since Chinaâ??s food supplies have been severely hurt by the shift in the â??tropics.â? This may imply America subsidizes Chinaâ??s food shortfall for an accord regarding the revaluation of Chinaâ??s currency. I realize such thoughts are unconventional, but they could be net worth changing since winning investments come from unconventional thinking. Recall, I proffered similar unconventional thoughts in 4Q01 when China was joining the WTA. Subsequently, I opined Chinaâ??s per capita incomes would rise, driving a secular bull market in â??stuffâ? (energy, base/precious metals, water, electricity, timber, cement, agriculture, etc.). I continue to think rising per capita incomes in the emerging and frontier countries will foster profitable investments in â??stuffâ?; and I continue to invest, and trade, accordingly.
The call for this week: Well, today is session 58 in the September â?? November â??buying stampede,â? making this stampede the longest I have seen in more than 40 years of market observations. It is also Thanksgiving week and history shows the DJIA has ended this week higher in 38 of the past 59 years (or 64% of the time). Additionally, over the last eight years the Dow has gained in six of those years with its best performance (since 1950) coming in 2008 with a 9.73% weekly rally. Its worst week was in 1973 with a drop of 4.2%. Hence, I continue to cautiously favor the upside. Meanwhile, the â??oilâ? that makes the â??economic engineâ? run, namely the M2 money supply, has increased for the past six months (+6.2% annualized rate). Such increases only reinforce my recommendations on â??stuff stocksâ? (preferably with yields). As for my views that the waning inventory-rebuild cycle will give way to a capex cycle, recent CFO surveys show intentions to boost capital equipment expenditures (capex), and hiring, are increasing. Therefore, my longstanding strategy that a â??profits boomâ? will give way to an inventory rebuild, and then a capital expenditure cycle followed by increased hiring, and then a pickup in consumption, remains â??stirred,â? but not shaken. As for the strongest sectors, they remain Energy, Basic Materials, and Information Technology, while the best performing market capitalization class is the mid-caps. I think those areas are â??buysâ? on any weakness and continue to think any near-term selling will be contained, leaving the major indices higher into year-end provided the 1130 â?? 1160 zone on the S&P 500 (SPX/1199.73) is not breached to the downside.
McClellan Oscillator - 2010Click here to enlarge Source: Thomson Reuters.
Natural Gas NYMEXClick here to enlarge Source: Thomson Reuters.
... â??Money managers are unhappy because 70% of them are lagging the S&P 500 and see the end of another quarter approaching. Economists are unhappy because they do not know what to believe; this monthâ??s forecast of a strong economy or last monthâ??s forecast of a weak economy. Technicians are unhappy because the market refuses to correct, and gets more and more extended. Foreigners are unhappy because due to their underinvested status in the U.S., they have missed the biggest double play in decades. The public is unhappy because they just plain missed out on the party after being scared into cash after the crash. It almost seems ungrateful for so many to be unhappy about a market that has done so well . . . Unhappy people would prefer the market to correct to allow them to buy and feel happy, which is just the reason for a further rise. Frustrating the majority is the marketâ??s primary goal.â?
... Robert J. Farrell
Bob Farrell was Merrill Lynchâ??s esteemed strategist for decades. He penned the aforementioned comments in September of 1989 after the D-J Industrial Average (DJIA) had risen from that yearâ??s January price of 2100 to its September high of 2791 without any meaningful correction. Accordingly, those investors waiting for a pullback to â??buyâ? were frustrated. Similarly, present-day investors are pretty frustrated as the DJIA has leaped from its August â??lowâ? of ~9940 into last Fridayâ??s high of 11451 without any significant correction. The recent â??Buying Stampedeâ? began on September 1st with a 255-point Dow Wow and has continued for the past 47 sessions without anything more than a one- to three-day pause/correction before resuming the onslaught. The latest upside skein has eclipsed the 38-session march into the August 1987 â??highsâ? that preceded the crash, as well as the longest â??Buying Stampedeâ? chronicled in my notes of some 40 years. Over the decades I have come to trust my â??day countâ? indicator because it has worked so well. As stated in past comments, it is rare for a â??Buying Stampedeâ? to extend for more than 30 sessions. That is why I wrong-footedly turned cautious, but not bearish, on day 33 of the stampede (October 18th) with the DJIA at ~11159. Since then, the senior index has still not experienced anything more than a one- to three-day pause/correction; yet, has also not really moved significantly above the October 18th intra-day high, that is until last Thursdayâ??s 220-point Dow Delight.
Indeed, last Thursdayâ??s triumph broke the DJIA (11444.08), as well as the D-J Transportation Average (DJTA/4923.40), above their respective Spring reaction highs of 11205.03 and 4806.10 respectively, thus rendering another Dow Theory â??buy signal.â? That signal reconfirmed the Dow Theory â??Buy signalâ? I wrote about last July and continues to suggest the trend of the stock market is bullish. Still, Thursdayâ??s session failed to qualify as another 90% Upside Day because while Points Gained exceed the 90% threshold, Up Volume didnâ??t, coming in at 89.3% of total Up/Down Volume. Nevertheless, since the late-June â??lowsâ? there have been ten 90% Upside Days, accompanied by strong Advance-Decline readings, reflecting the durability of this rally. In fact, the New York Composite Advance-Decline Line is well above its April rally peak and Lowryâ??s Buying Power Index has risen to a new rally high, while the Selling Pressure Index tagged a new reaction low, late last week. All of this only reinforces my view that any correction will be shallow and brief.
The explosive rally from the June â??lowsâ? has lifted the DJIA by some 16%. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index ($USD/76.76) has surrendered roughly 16% from its respective June high into its recent low, causing one savvy seer to exclaim, â??Are stocks really going up, or is the measuring stick going down?!â? Clearly, that is a valid question. Yet, my sense is the U.S. dollar â??sell shortâ? trade is getting profoundly crowded. To wit, I was on a number of TV shows last week where other pundits were beating the greenback like a rented mule. Most of their comments centered on the statement, â??the dollar is worthless,â? to which I replied, â??If so, why donâ??t you send them to me!â? To be sure, while I too am a long-term dollar bear, I think the dollarâ??s dive is long of tooth and believe it to be near a short/intermediate-term inflection point. Verily, I am confident the Dollar Index will not violate its 2008 â??lowsâ? located between 71 and 73, at least in the short/intermediate-term. If correct, a reversal in the dollarâ??s misfortunes might imply a pause/correction for my beloved â??stuff stocks.â? Inferentially, both of those thoughts gained traction over the weekend since Barronâ??s cover story was, â??Chinaâ??s Sure Bet.â? The byline read, â??With the dollar vulnerable, China for the first time is investing more overseas in hard assets, like copper, oil and iron, than in U.S. government bonds.â?
Plainly, last weekâ??s two major events were the mid-term elections and the Fedâ??s announcement of another quantitative easing (QE2). Both went pretty much as expected. While many negative nabobs think QE2 will not work, I think it will work better than expected. It should be effective at lowering real interest rates, which should improve the fiscal funding metrics. QE2 should also lower peopleâ??s propensity to save (read: spend money). The risk is that countries like China may view QE2 as a maneuver designed to get them to revalue their currency upward relative to the U.S. dollar. In fact, last Thursday China, Brazil, and Germany criticized QE2, while a number of Asian central banks announced intentions to defend their currencies. For further color on QE2, please read our economistâ??s (Dr. Scott Brown) comments attached to this report.
As for the mid-terms, I have argued for months that if the Republicans regained the House, and came close to taking back the Senate, President Obama might just pull a Clinton and move to the â??center.â? I further evinced if that happens the S&P 500 (SPX/1125.85) would likely cross above 1300 quickly. And last Wednesday a clearly contrite President showed signs of becoming more centrist. Meanwhile, last weekâ??s economic reports continued to come in better than expected with 13 of them above estimates, five weaker, and three on target. The same is true of corporate earnings and revenue reports. More importantly, companies are guiding 4Q10 earnings estimates higher. So again I say, to an underinvested portfolio manager (PM) the current environment is a nightmare! And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why any correction should be short and shallow as underinvested PMs will be forced to buy the â??dipsâ? in order to keep up with the Joneses (aka, the Dow Joneses). Indeed, focused on 2010â??s year-end, PMs have performance risk, bonus risk, and ultimately job risk by underperforming the major market averages.
Summing the parts, I continue to have a timid trading stance in large part due to my day-count sequence, the overbought nature of most of the indices, and the fact that many of the indexes have spiked above their respective upper Bollinger Bands (rare occurrence). That said, I am not afraid to buy select stocks. Over the past few weeks my preferred strategy has been to buy fundamentally sound companies, with unbroken business models, when they have had a price concession for a one-off reason. On October 14th thatâ??s exactly what happened to NII Holdings (NIHD/$42.73/Strong Buy) when the Televisa deal was called off. On that announcement NIHD shares fell more than seven points in a day and we recommended purchase, as noted in our Investment Strategy report of October 18th. On October 26th a number of announcements caused Lexmarkâ??s shares (LXK/$39.19/Outperform) to collapse 10 points in a day and our analyst recommended purchase in a written comment that same day, as we noted in our verbal strategy commentary that Tuesday. I think such a strategy takes much of the â??price riskâ? out of the investment equation and I continue to invest, and trade, accordingly.
The call for this week: I will be out of the country until November 18th so these will probably be the only strategy comments for awhile. Nevertheless, according to the sagacious Bespoke organization, since April 23rd the best performing sectors have been Telecom Services (+15.6%), Materials (+6.0%), Consumer Staples (+4.3%), and Utilities (+4.1%). Interestingly, the Financials are down by 7.9% from that same date, yet last week the Financials made a strong reversal and registered a massive upside breakout in the charts. While I have not recommended banks in 10 years, if I were to buy one it would be Strong Buy-rated IBERIABANK Corporation (IBKC/$54.22). Please see our analyst Michael Roseâ??s company comment of October 28, 2010 for more insight. Iâ??ll speak to yâ??all in a couple weeks.
â??Tornadoes, violent thunderstorms, and torrential rains swept through a large portion of the nation's midsection yesterday, thanks to the strongest storm ever recorded in the Midwest. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 24 tornado reports and 282 reports of damaging high winds from yesterday's spectacular storm, and the storm continues to produce a wide variety of wild weather, with tornado watches. The mega-storm reached peak intensity late yesterday afternoon over Minnesota, resulting in the lowest barometric pressure readings ever recorded in the continental United States, except for hurricanes and nor'easters affecting the Atlantic seaboard (last weekâ??s hurricane-like Midwest storm shown below).â?
... Wunderground Blog, by Dr. Jeff Masters, 10/27/10
Droughts in Russia and China have destroyed 30% of Russiaâ??s grain crops. The same drought has caused 30-foot deep â??cracksâ? to appear in the farmlands north of Chinaâ??s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, keeping farmers out of the fields (read: food shortages). Meanwhile, other parts of China are experiencing floods, and mudslides, of historic proportions. Ditto Pakistan, where monsoons have displaced some 20 million people and caused huge crop losses. A few weeks ago, some parts of Wisconsin had three feet of water in the streets, a late-season Hurricane (Earl) flooded our countryâ??s Northeast corridor, New York City experienced its hottest summer on record, punctuated by a microburst containing 125 mph winds, hot weather left the temperature in Los Angles at 114° two weeks ago, and a heat wave sparked the Fourmile Canyon fire near Boulder, Colorado. I could go on, but you get the idea, the weather has turned undeniably weird.
In past missives I have commented that while to some degree the environmentalists are right about the climate change being attributable to â??man,â? this yearâ??s weather is being compounded by a La Niña weather pattern coupled with huge amounts of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. That combination has allowed â??The Tropicsâ? to expand toward the â??poles.â? Accordingly, the Hadley cell winds have shifted outwards. Recall, the Hadley cell winds dominate the tropics, carrying hot equatorial air up into the troposphere where atmospheric circulation carries it North and South. The air eventually sinks back to Earth around the 30° longitudes. Where the air rises, the atmospheric pressure is low, causing heavy rains and storms (tropical). When it sinks, it produces high pressure areas characterized by deserts like the Australian outback. Once the air becomes earthbound it flows back toward the equator. Unsurprisingly, the Hadley cell windsâ?? outward shift has played havoc with the Trade Winds, producing droughts in otherwise moist parts of the world and monsoons in previously dry locales. Said â??shiftâ? has allowed tropical zones, and deserts, to expand dramatically. This is not an unimportant event because the changed weather pattern has major implications for agriculture and the worldâ??s soil bank.
Currently, much of the worldâ??s topsoil is eroding and therefore declining in nutrient quality. According to wiseGEEK:
â??Topsoil is the upper surface of the Earth's crust, and usually is no deeper than approximately eight inches. The Earth's topsoil mixes rich humus with minerals and composted material, resulting in a nutritious substrate for plants and trees. It is one of the Earth's most vital resources.â?
Unfortunately, topsoil erosion is occurring much faster than nature can replace it. In addition to weather, modern agriculture techniques have hastened the erosion, as has row crop planting (corn, soybeans, cotton, tobacco, etc.) since row crops erode soil much faster than sod crops. Regrettably, once soil is gone you canâ??t get it back! Plainly, this has grave implications because as I have stated for years, â??When per capita incomes rise the first thing people want is clean water, the second is a better diet.â? With per capita incomes rising rapidly in emerging countries the burgeoning food demand has left global grain consumption exceeding production; and, over the next few decades the situation is likely to get worse because food production needs to expand by some 50% just to meet the estimated demand. Ladies and gentlemen, this means an additional ~6 billion acres of land is needed to meet the upcoming food demand, but only ~2 billion acres of good land is available. Obviously, that should make farmland a good investment and there are select public companies that play to this theme. Also of interest are ag-centric â??technologyâ? companies that hopefully can ameliorate some of the upcoming food shortfall. Companies like Monsanto (MON/$59.42) and Deere & Co. (DE/$76.80), which are followed by our research affiliates, are constantly searching for innovative solutions to the dilemma.
I revisit the weather, water, and agriculture themes today not only because they have been three of my long-standing themes, but to emphasize why they should continue to be viable investments going forward. Water is by far the most undervalued asset I know, yet it is difficult to find water-centric investments. Clearly, that is not the case with agriculture. As for weather, I began this strategy report with a quote from the weather website â??Wundergroundâ? because it makes the point that last weekâ??s Midwest storms had, â??The lowest barometric pressure readings ever recorded in the continental United States.â? I think the weird weather will continue to be driven by the shift in â??The Tropics.â? This implies a cold and wet winter. Manifestly, a cold winter, when combined with the anticipated Republican victory, should have positive implications for energy stocks. From our Analyst Current Favorites list I offer the following energy names for your consideration: Alpha Natural Resources (ANR/$45.17/Strong Buy); Hess Corp. (HES/$63.03/ Strong Buy); National Oilwell Varco (NOV/$53.76/Strong Buy); Inergy L.P. (NRGY/$39.26/Strong Buy); and Whiting Petroleum (WLL/$100.44/Strong Buy). I also would have you consider Clayton Williams Energy (CWEI/$59.72/Outperform).
As for the equity markets, after being constructive since the end of June, I turned cautious exactly two weeks ago as we approached last Aprilâ??s price â??highâ? on the D-J Industrial Average (INDU/11118.49). The senior index stood at ~11200 back then and changes hands around the same level today. However, over the past two weeks we have experienced weakening relative stock strength and numerous distribution days. Additionally, the U.S. dollar has stabilized and the 30-year Treasury bond yield has surmounted 4% (both bearish events). Despite those deteriorating metrics, stocks just donâ??t seem to want to spill into the 5% - 8% correction I have been anticipating. While I have not given up on a downside correction, I must admit if it doesnâ??t happen soon, time may be running out for the bears. Indeed, this week begins the best six-month period of the year for stocks (November through May); and with 3Q10 earnings reports beating estimates by 71%, as well as 4Q10 earnings guidance rising, underinvested portfolio managers are experiencing intense performance anxiety. That anxiety should cause them to â??flinch,â? and buy stocks, if a correction doesnâ??t arrive soon. Adding to that performance anxiety is an improving economy, for as my friends at the invaluable Bespoke Investment Group write:
â??(Last) weekâ??s economic data contributed to further improvement in our Economic Indicator Diffusion Index. As shown in the (nearby) chart, the 50-day rolling net total of better than expected economic reports hit a level of +15 this week. This is the highest reading since early February, and hardly an indication of the economy going downhill.â?
The call for this week: I live in Florida and I can tell you November hurricanes are pretty rare. Nevertheless, as of Saturday there were two stirring in the Atlantic as â??Sharyâ? and â??Tomasâ? became the 18th and 19th named storms of this hurricane season. And while Shary lost her hurricane status on Sunday, Tomas continues to gather strength. Certainly predicting the weather is as difficult as predicting the stock market, which is why weather is an unknown unknown (aka Katrina). Interestingly, as Donald Rumsfeld evinced, "It's not the certainties that make life interesting; it's the uncertainties. There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns â?? the things we don't know we don't know.â? Or as one old Wall Street wag exclaimed, â??Itâ??s not the snake you see that bites you!â? Hence, I remain cautious, but not bearish, admitting that time is running out for the bears.
P.S. â?? Read the book â??The Coming Famine: The Global Food Crisis and What We Can Do To Avoid Itâ? by Julian Cribb, which states â??Civilization and anarchy are only seven meals apart.â?
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