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Daniel Gross is economics editor and columnist at Yahoo! Finance. Follow him on Twitter: @grossdm. Email him at grossdaniel11@yahoo.com.
Europe may be melting down -- once again. But the latest data points indicate a continuing, grinding, less-than-satisfying recovery.
1. Real economy indicator. The Chicago-area Purchasing Managers Index report reveals November was a pretty good month for Midwestern manufacturers. Strength was evident pretty much across the board. Production rose, checking in at its highest level since February 2005. Employment expanded for the sixth straight month, and new orders rose to levels last attained in 2007.
2. Real-ish economy indicator. The International Council of Shopping Centers/Goldman Sachs weekly chain store sales index rose 0.5 percent for the week ended November 27, after two weeks of declines. (I'd link, but the releases aren't available on ICSC's public Web site). Compared with the same week in 2009, same-store sales were up 3.5 percent. ICSC research maven Michael Niemira projects that, for the month of November overall, same-store sales will be up between 3 percent and 4 percent from 2009. As we've noted, the trend heading into the holiday shopping season has been generally positive.
3. Somewhat real-ish sentiment indicator. The Conference Board reports that its measure of consumer confidence rose from 49.1 in October to 54.4 in November "” the highest level in five months. Consumers are still plenty gloomy "” 43.6 percent said business conditions were "bad," up from 42.3 percent in October, and only 4 percent said jobs are "plentiful," up from 3.5 percent in October. But on the whole, consumers' expectations for the availability of jobs, business conditions, and incomes rose marginally in the month from October.
4. Continuing Near-Apocalyptic data point. And then there's housing. No data dump would be complete without another poor housing number. And the Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, released today, certainly delivered. In the third quarter, an index that tracks nationwide home prices fell 2.0 percent from the second quarter. Compared with the 2009 third quarter, home prices were down 1.5 percent. Prices fell from the second to the third quarter in 18 of the 20 large metropolitan areas tracked by S&P/Case-Shiller. The only metropolitan areas in which housing prices rose were the nation's twin sin cities: Las Vegas (0.1 percent) and Washington, D.C. (0.3 percent).
In sum, it looks like we're going to have to continue to have this expansion without housing.
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