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Weekend Investor
Dec. 3, 2010, 5:52 p.m. EST
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By Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch
MADRID (MarketWatch) "” Investing in Europe now seems a recipe for a mess.
Sovereign debt worries continue to sap investors' confidence about the soundness of the European Union and the euro. Stock- and bond mutual funds dedicated to the continent have seen a growing exodus, as shareholders grapple with a recently inked bailout plan for Ireland, turmoil in Greece, and the uncomfortable sense that Portugal and Spain aren't far behind.
Global Dow
"Ireland, Greece and Portugal are basically insolvent and we will probably find out in due course that while these countries are too big to fail, and Spain is too big to rescue "” this saga is far from over," wrote David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Toronto-based Gluskin Sheff Associates Inc., in a recent note to clients.
Conventional advice recommends holding European stocks in a diversified investment portfolio. But with growing unrest across the continent and doubts about the viability of the European Union, how do you invest in Europe at a time like this?
Carefully. Many of the region's beaten-down stock markets offer potential value, but there's also risk of buying in too early.
Yet some intrepid mutual-fund managers are finding selective opportunities in Greece and Portugal, along with more predictable Germany, Switzerland and Norway. Here are five surprising stocks on their radar:
Greek retailer Jumbo faces an obstacle worthy of its name "” the sorry state of the Greek consumer that Jumbo depends on.
With 41 stores in Greece, two in Cyprus and three in Bulgaria, Jumbo is known as the "Wal-Mart of Greece." The chain sells toys, seasonal and household items, most of which are made in China.
Ireland's parliament vote on the austerity budget, German economic data and the Bank of England's policy meeting will be in the spotlight next week. U.K. food retailer Tesco will release a third-quarter sales update, while European airlines will report November traffic statistics.
What Jumbo has going for it is low prices. Discount retailers tend to do well in hard times. Wal-Mart, for example, saw its shares gain 20% in 2008, during the depths of the U.S. recession "” outperforming the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500-stock index /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX 1,225, +3.18, +0.26%) by 57 percentage points that year.
Jumbo' stock hasn't been as resilient. The shares have tumbled about 35% this year so far.
But Jumbo's earnings have been solid. Jumbo recently posted fiscal first-quarter gross margin of 49.7% against consensus forecasts of 48%, said Edwin Lugo, manager of Franklin International Small Cap Growth Fund /quotes/comstock/10r!fkscx (FKSCX 16.42, +0.19, +1.17%) , which owns a position in Jumbo shares.
Analysts were expecting worse because value-added-taxes in Greece have been raised twice this year and Jumbo has pledged to absorb the costs.
Jumbo''s balance sheet "is better than the country's," said Lugo, who noted the company's free-cash-flow yield of more than 10%.
"If Greece goes back to where it was, the stock is worth twice what it is today," he said. "Even if we sit here in this worst-case scenario, we'll still generate free cash flow yield."
Swiss-based Temenos Group AG /quotes/comstock/22a!temn (CH:TEMN 35.00, +0.35, +1.01%) , a global provider of banking software, gets a thumbs-up from Martin Schulz, senior portfolio manager at PNC Capital Advisors.
Temenos's third-quarter earnings were better than expected, Schulz said, quelling fears of spending cutbacks among the company's key financial services customers.
/quotes/comstock/22a!temn TEMN 35.00, +0.35, +1.01%
"The big concern was that financial companies around the world will retrench and not spend, but basically they're seeing good growth in emerging markets "” the Middle East and Asia "” and starting to break into the U.S.," Schulz noted.
Page 1Page 2 Add Comment › · Recommend (1) · Post: Alert Email Print More Weekend Investor Nov. 26, 2010 How to choose the right 529 college savings plan Nov. 19, 2010 Investing in Canada while commodities are hot Nov. 12, 2010 Why gold is a bad investment Nov. 5, 2010 How to survive the market's next "?flash crash' Oct. 30, 2010 How investors can play the midterm elections Explore related topics Banks Tobacco Asia Pacific S&P 500 Index Franklin Intl SCG;Adv Temenos Group AG Comments Screener First Take Stocks look at stimulus beyond jobs reportA disappointing jobs report fails to disappoint investors, who are still looking at central banks to continue playing Santa.
4:01 p.m. Dec. 3, 2010
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Loading more headlines... dow /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed 11,382 19.68 0.17% nasdaq /quotes/comstock/10y!i:comp 2,591 12.11 0.47% s&p 500 /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x 1,225 3.18 0.26% Kiosk 1241006400000 1241006400000Currencies
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A disappointing jobs report fails to disappoint investors, who are still looking at central banks to continue playing Santa.
4:01 p.m. Dec. 3, 2010
"Stocks pull higher after payrolls data questioned http://bit.ly/euB2uY" 6:05 p.m. EST, Dec. 3, 2010 from MarketWatch
"Supermarket #trade goes stale http://bit.ly/fnveFG" 5:21 p.m. EST, Dec. 3, 2010 from MarketWatch
"RT @MKTWJaffe: Kardashian Kard's got nothing on this card http://on.mktw.net/dECSH2" 4:44 p.m. EST, Dec. 3, 2010 from MarketWatch
"Oil settles at fresh 2-year high http://bit.ly/g0kv9F" 4:26 p.m. EST, Dec. 3, 2010 from MarketWatch
"U.S. stocks close higher after late-day rebound, finish week up nearly 3% http://on.mktw.net/hgtTkj" 4:02 p.m. EST, Dec. 3, 2010 from MarketWatch
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