2011: Gold Plummets, Insider Trading Probes Soar

Doug Kass TheStreet.com December 21, 2010

This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Dec. 20 at 7:38 a.m. EST.

Over the last month, I have disclosed two new surprises for 2011 every week on RealMoney Silver. (See No. 1 and No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4, No. 5 and No. 6, and No. 7 and No. 8.) The complete list will be published during the last week of December. At 5:00 p.m. EST, I routinely follow up with a further discussion of my new surprises on CNBC's "Fast Money," as I did Monday night. Without further ado, here are this week's next two new surprises: Surprise No. 9: The price of gold plummets by more than $250 an ounce in a four-week period in 2011 and is among the worst asset classes of the new year. The commodity experiences wild volatility in price (on five to 10 occasions, the price has a daily price change of at least $75), briefly trading under $1,050 an ounce during the year and ending the year between $1,100 and $1,200 an ounce. By means of background, the price of gold has risen from about $250 an ounce 11 years ago to about $1,370 an ounce today -- compounding at more than a 16% rate annually. As a result, investing in gold has become de rigeur for hedge hoggers and other institutional investors - and in due course gold has become a favored investment among individual investors. My surprise is that next year the price of gold has the potential to become the modern-day equivalent of Hans Christian Andersen's "The Emperor's New Clothes," a short tale about two weavers who promise an emperor a new suit of clothes that are invisible to those unfit for their positions, stupid or incompetent. When the emperor parades before his subjects in his new clothes, a child cries out, "But he isn't wearing anything at all!" With a finite supply, gold has historically been viewed as a tangible asset that increases in value during uncertain (and inflationary) times. No wonder it has become such a desirable asset class following the Great Decession and credit crisis of 2008-09. Gold bugs remind the nonbelievers that for thousands of years, gold has been a store of value and, given the current state of the world's financial system, gold is the best house in a bad neighborhood of asset classes. But gold, which may be the most crowded trade around, is viewed now as a commodity for all seasons -- during inflation, deflation, low or high economic growth. There is a body of thought that maintains gold holds little value, that it is only a shiny metal with limited industrial value that throws off no income or cash flow (and, as such, its value cannot be determined or analyzed with any precision based on interest rates or any other measure). Those nonbelievers compare the dizzying price of gold to the unsustainable rise in comic book prices (and other collectibles) in the early 1990s, Internet stock prices in early 2000 or home prices in 2006-07. 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