What does the future for stock market dividends look like through 2011?
The two charts we're presenting today, showing what the dividend futures market is signaling is in store for 2011, at least, as of 17 December 2010, reveal that business is set to improve through much of the year.
First, looking at the quarterly data, we see that the first quarter of 2011 would appear to be pretty robust - but that's perhaps a bit misleading.
Until this past weekend, when the lame-duck Congress and Obama administration acted to sustain lower taxes through 2012, it was uncertain whether or not the tax rates that would apply to dividends would go up. A number of firms, anticipating much higher taxes on dividends, had been considering shifting the timing of when they would pay their dividends to get around the change in tax rates that would have otherwise have taken effect on 1 January 2011.
Many of these higher dividends payments were slated to be paid out to shareholders in the period covering 17 December 2010 through the end of 2010, which is covered by the dividend futures contract for the first quarter of 2011, which is why the dividends for this quarter would appear to be so elevated.
When we look at the projected trailing year dividend data however, we observe that this elevated quarterly dividend for the first quarter 2011 is likely the result of shifting around when future dividend payments would otherwise have occurred. Here, we see that the projected trailing year dividends is mainly following the upward trend that has existed since trailing year dividends bottomed in the first half of 2010.
In fact, if we were to draw an imaginary line from the top of the bar for 2010Q4 to the top of the bar for 2011Q4 in this chart, we can see that only the data for 2011Q1 and 2011Q2 would seem to deviate from the trend, with 2011Q1 being elevated above the line and the data for 2011Q2 falling below the line.
This outcome suggests that a number of companies were pulling their expected dividend payments from 2011Q2 ahead into 2011Q1 to get around the risk of exposure to higher dividend taxes.
From an economic standpoint however, the currently expected trend in dividends suggests that 2011 will be a better year for U.S. businesses than was 2010.
Labels: dividends, SP 500
- posted by Ironman at 4:54 AM | Permalink | Share | | << Home Unexpectedly Intriguing!
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blog advertising is good for you Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at: ironman at politicalcalculations.com Thanks in advance!
Most Popular PostsThe S&P 500 at Your Fingertips Reckoning the Odds of Recession Should You Trade in Your Gas Guzzler? What Are the Chances Your Marriage Will Last? Tipping Around the World What's Your Body Fat Percentage? The Odds of Dying, Again! The Biggest Issue of 2010, In One Chart Hauser's Law Average Lifetime Earnings Trajectories by Education
Quick IndexFirst Time Visitor to Political Calculations? On the Moneyed Midways A Lot, But Not All, of Our Tools
Recent Posts The Full Deployment of the World's Eighth Largest ... Should You Get Married? On the Moneyed Midways - December 17, 2010 How Much Should You Spend on Gifts this Christmas?... What Caused the Dot Com Bubble to Begin and What C... Visualizing the U.S. National Debt: 1791-2010 What's Your U.S. Income Ranking? Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid. On the Moneyed Midways - December 10, 2010 Oldest Workers Hardest Hit in November 2010 U.S. GDP Temperature GaugePolitical Calculations' U.S. GDP Temperature Gauge provides a means to quickly evaluate the growth rate of the U.S. economy against the backdrop of how the economy has performed since 1980, with the "temperature" color spectrum ranging from a recessionary "cold" (purple) through an expansionary "hot" (red).
The GDP Temperature Gauge presents both the annualized GDP growth rate as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports for a one-quarter period and also as averaged over a two quarter period, which smooths out the volatility seen in the one-quarter data and provides a better indication of the relative strength of the U.S. economy over time.
Recession Probability TrackPolitical Calculations' Recession Probability Track shows the probability that the U.S. economy will be in recession 12 months from the indicated date (shown in red) while revealing the probability trend over the past four years.
Previously, the probability of recession peaked at 50% on 4 April 2007, which means that March-April 2008 was the most likely period in which the NBER would have found the U.S. to be in recession.
As it happens, they almost did. The NBER instead chose December 2007 as the beginning month of the most recent recession (we had found a 46% probability for a recession beginning in that month!)
On the Moneyed MidwaysPolitical Calculations is also the online home of On the Moneyed Midways (aka OMM), a review of the best posts contributed to the week's best business and money-related blog carnivals. More than that, we also name one post in each edition as being The Best Post of the Week, Anywhere! and at the end of each year, we name The Best Post of the Year, Anywhere! as well as identifying the best blogs we found during the course of the year!
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Investment Disclosure Statement: Ironman owns stock. Specifically, Ironman owns five shares of Boeing stock. Other than that, Ironman primarily invests through retirement accounts, in an index fund that closely tracks the performance of the S&P 500 and, from time to time, an ETF that is inversely-correlated with the S&P 500 (an anti-S&P 500 fund!). Details of any positions taken may be found through the chronological links in the Archives beginning with April 2009.
About Political Calculations
blog advertising is good for you Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too! If you would like to learn more about these tools, or if you would like to contribute ideas to develop for this blog, please e-mail us at: ironman at politicalcalculations.com Thanks in advance!
Most Popular PostsThe S&P 500 at Your Fingertips Reckoning the Odds of Recession Should You Trade in Your Gas Guzzler? What Are the Chances Your Marriage Will Last? Tipping Around the World What's Your Body Fat Percentage? The Odds of Dying, Again! The Biggest Issue of 2010, In One Chart Hauser's Law Average Lifetime Earnings Trajectories by Education
Quick IndexFirst Time Visitor to Political Calculations? On the Moneyed Midways A Lot, But Not All, of Our Tools
Recent Posts The Full Deployment of the World's Eighth Largest ... Should You Get Married? On the Moneyed Midways - December 17, 2010 How Much Should You Spend on Gifts this Christmas?... What Caused the Dot Com Bubble to Begin and What C... Visualizing the U.S. National Debt: 1791-2010 What's Your U.S. Income Ranking? Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid. On the Moneyed Midways - December 10, 2010 Oldest Workers Hardest Hit in November 2010 U.S. GDP Temperature GaugePolitical Calculations' U.S. GDP Temperature Gauge provides a means to quickly evaluate the growth rate of the U.S. economy against the backdrop of how the economy has performed since 1980, with the "temperature" color spectrum ranging from a recessionary "cold" (purple) through an expansionary "hot" (red).
The GDP Temperature Gauge presents both the annualized GDP growth rate as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports for a one-quarter period and also as averaged over a two quarter period, which smooths out the volatility seen in the one-quarter data and provides a better indication of the relative strength of the U.S. economy over time.
Recession Probability TrackPolitical Calculations' Recession Probability Track shows the probability that the U.S. economy will be in recession 12 months from the indicated date (shown in red) while revealing the probability trend over the past four years.
Previously, the probability of recession peaked at 50% on 4 April 2007, which means that March-April 2008 was the most likely period in which the NBER would have found the U.S. to be in recession.
As it happens, they almost did. The NBER instead chose December 2007 as the beginning month of the most recent recession (we had found a 46% probability for a recession beginning in that month!)
On the Moneyed MidwaysPolitical Calculations is also the online home of On the Moneyed Midways (aka OMM), a review of the best posts contributed to the week's best business and money-related blog carnivals. More than that, we also name one post in each edition as being The Best Post of the Week, Anywhere! and at the end of each year, we name The Best Post of the Year, Anywhere! as well as identifying the best blogs we found during the course of the year!
The link below will take you to the running index containing our most recent back issues (you can easily navigate the index to find older editions.)
OMM's Most Recent Editions - with links to our older editions!
Site DataThis site is primarily powered by:
Visitors since December 6, 2004:
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The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.
Other Cool ResourcesZunZun - Exceptional regression analysis tool. Wolfram Integrator - Solve integrals. Do calculus! Create a Graph - Easy-to-use basic graph-making tool. Many Eyes - Data visualization extraordinaire! Wolfram Alpha - Computational knowledge engine. Khan Academy - Math & science video mini-lectures!
Archives December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 August 2010 September 2010 October 2010 November 2010 December 2010 if (location.href.indexOf("archive")!=-1) document.write("Current Posts");Bloodhoundblog Budgets Are Sexy Cafe Hayek Carpe Diem Cheap, Healthy, Good Copywriting Tips Core77 Coyote Blog Craig Harper Darwin's Finance Digerati Life, The Division of Labour Dough Roller, The Eclectecon Econlog Economics Roundtable EconomicsUK Entrepreneurial Mind Environmental Economics Escape from Cubicle Nation Execupundit FiscalGeek Fortify Your Oasis Get Rich Slowly Gongol Good Financial Cents HR Bartender Hot Air i4cp Productivity Innocent Bystanders Innovation and Growth Instapundit Intangible Economy I've Paid Twice for This Already Joanne Jacobs Kaus Files Len Penzo dot Com Mahalanobis Making Ripples Market Power Mechonomics Mighty Bargain Hunter Monevator Money Blue Book My Dollar Plan New Economist Newmark's Door Nina Simosko Physorg Private Sector Development Radio Equalizer Real Clear Politics Richard Fernandez Roger L. Simon SCSU Scholars Science and Money Skeptical Optimist Sound Politics SOX First Speculist, The Sports Economist, The squawkfox Three Star Leadership Tim Worstall Tough Money Love Townhall Trusted Advisor Uncommon Misperceptions voluntaryXchange WILLisms Winterspeak
Market LinksBig Picture, The CXO Advisory Group Disciplined Approach to Investing Dividend Guy, The Doug Short Evidence Investing Fat Pitch Financials FX Investment Strategies
What We're ReadingBailout Nation Gardner's Art Through the Ages Empire of Wealth The Ottoman Centuries Stocks for the Long Run
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The S&P 500 at Your Fingertips Reckoning the Odds of Recession Should You Trade in Your Gas Guzzler? What Are the Chances Your Marriage Will Last? Tipping Around the World What's Your Body Fat Percentage? The Odds of Dying, Again! The Biggest Issue of 2010, In One Chart Hauser's Law Average Lifetime Earnings Trajectories by Education
First Time Visitor to Political Calculations? On the Moneyed Midways A Lot, But Not All, of Our Tools
Political Calculations' U.S. GDP Temperature Gauge provides a means to quickly evaluate the growth rate of the U.S. economy against the backdrop of how the economy has performed since 1980, with the "temperature" color spectrum ranging from a recessionary "cold" (purple) through an expansionary "hot" (red).
The GDP Temperature Gauge presents both the annualized GDP growth rate as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports for a one-quarter period and also as averaged over a two quarter period, which smooths out the volatility seen in the one-quarter data and provides a better indication of the relative strength of the U.S. economy over time.
Political Calculations' Recession Probability Track shows the probability that the U.S. economy will be in recession 12 months from the indicated date (shown in red) while revealing the probability trend over the past four years.
Previously, the probability of recession peaked at 50% on 4 April 2007, which means that March-April 2008 was the most likely period in which the NBER would have found the U.S. to be in recession.
As it happens, they almost did. The NBER instead chose December 2007 as the beginning month of the most recent recession (we had found a 46% probability for a recession beginning in that month!)
Political Calculations is also the online home of On the Moneyed Midways (aka OMM), a review of the best posts contributed to the week's best business and money-related blog carnivals. More than that, we also name one post in each edition as being The Best Post of the Week, Anywhere! and at the end of each year, we name The Best Post of the Year, Anywhere! as well as identifying the best blogs we found during the course of the year!
The link below will take you to the running index containing our most recent back issues (you can easily navigate the index to find older editions.)
OMM's Most Recent Editions - with links to our older editions!
This site is primarily powered by:
Visitors since December 6, 2004:
CSS Validation
RSS Site Feed
JavaScript
The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.
Other Cool ResourcesZunZun - Exceptional regression analysis tool. Wolfram Integrator - Solve integrals. Do calculus! Create a Graph - Easy-to-use basic graph-making tool. Many Eyes - Data visualization extraordinaire! Wolfram Alpha - Computational knowledge engine. Khan Academy - Math & science video mini-lectures!
Archives December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007 July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 June 2008 July 2008 August 2008 September 2008 October 2008 November 2008 December 2008 January 2009 February 2009 March 2009 April 2009 May 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 August 2010 September 2010 October 2010 November 2010 December 2010 if (location.href.indexOf("archive")!=-1) document.write("Current Posts");Bloodhoundblog Budgets Are Sexy Cafe Hayek Carpe Diem Cheap, Healthy, Good Copywriting Tips Core77 Coyote Blog Craig Harper Darwin's Finance Digerati Life, The Division of Labour Dough Roller, The Eclectecon Econlog Economics Roundtable EconomicsUK Entrepreneurial Mind Environmental Economics Escape from Cubicle Nation Execupundit FiscalGeek Fortify Your Oasis Get Rich Slowly Gongol Good Financial Cents HR Bartender Hot Air i4cp Productivity Innocent Bystanders Innovation and Growth Instapundit Intangible Economy I've Paid Twice for This Already Joanne Jacobs Kaus Files Len Penzo dot Com Mahalanobis Making Ripples Market Power Mechonomics Mighty Bargain Hunter Monevator Money Blue Book My Dollar Plan New Economist Newmark's Door Nina Simosko Physorg Private Sector Development Radio Equalizer Real Clear Politics Richard Fernandez Roger L. Simon SCSU Scholars Science and Money Skeptical Optimist Sound Politics SOX First Speculist, The Sports Economist, The squawkfox Three Star Leadership Tim Worstall Tough Money Love Townhall Trusted Advisor Uncommon Misperceptions voluntaryXchange WILLisms Winterspeak
Market LinksBig Picture, The CXO Advisory Group Disciplined Approach to Investing Dividend Guy, The Doug Short Evidence Investing Fat Pitch Financials FX Investment Strategies
What We're ReadingBailout Nation Gardner's Art Through the Ages Empire of Wealth The Ottoman Centuries Stocks for the Long Run
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The tools on this site are built using JavaScript. If you would like to learn more, one of the best free resources on the web is available at W3Schools.com.
ZunZun - Exceptional regression analysis tool. Wolfram Integrator - Solve integrals. Do calculus! Create a Graph - Easy-to-use basic graph-making tool. Many Eyes - Data visualization extraordinaire! Wolfram Alpha - Computational knowledge engine. Khan Academy - Math & science video mini-lectures!
Bloodhoundblog Budgets Are Sexy Cafe Hayek Carpe Diem Cheap, Healthy, Good Copywriting Tips Core77 Coyote Blog Craig Harper Darwin's Finance Digerati Life, The Division of Labour Dough Roller, The Eclectecon Econlog Economics Roundtable EconomicsUK Entrepreneurial Mind Environmental Economics Escape from Cubicle Nation Execupundit FiscalGeek Fortify Your Oasis Get Rich Slowly Gongol Good Financial Cents HR Bartender Hot Air i4cp Productivity Innocent Bystanders Innovation and Growth Instapundit Intangible Economy I've Paid Twice for This Already Joanne Jacobs Kaus Files Len Penzo dot Com Mahalanobis Making Ripples Market Power Mechonomics Mighty Bargain Hunter Monevator Money Blue Book My Dollar Plan New Economist Newmark's Door Nina Simosko Physorg Private Sector Development Radio Equalizer Real Clear Politics Richard Fernandez Roger L. Simon SCSU Scholars Science and Money Skeptical Optimist Sound Politics SOX First Speculist, The Sports Economist, The squawkfox Three Star Leadership Tim Worstall Tough Money Love Townhall Trusted Advisor Uncommon Misperceptions voluntaryXchange WILLisms Winterspeak
Big Picture, The CXO Advisory Group Disciplined Approach to Investing Dividend Guy, The Doug Short Evidence Investing Fat Pitch Financials FX Investment Strategies
Bailout Nation Gardner's Art Through the Ages Empire of Wealth The Ottoman Centuries Stocks for the Long Run
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