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Paul B. Farrell
Dec. 28, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EST
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By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) "â? Michael Murphy should receive a Bill McKibben Award for his achievements over the past few decades. Not only because he was one of the few warning us of the 2008 meltdown well in advance. Not because his "New World Investor"? newsletter was ranked No. 2 in Hulbert Financial Digest's 2009 list, with a 148% return. Not because he has a great new book, "Survive The Great Inflation."?
Murphy deserves an award because he's totally committed to "finding biotechs that will be able to treat the superbug plagues and to technology that can keep people in their ancestral place, growing their own food, yet fully participate in the modern world and commerce."? His passion for biotech is obvious from his writings. But the real reason he deserves an award is that, on top of his search for great biotech miracles, he lives off the land; he really is a farmer too.
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And not just a garden-variety farmer. Murphy has lived off his farms for the last 25 years. He even has a Permaculture Design Certificate that reflects everything Bill McKibben advocates. Murphy says "we grow organically and raise rare breed animals, and I am beginning research in perennial vegetables and forest gardens adapted to Colorado weather."? I was raised by grandparents living off a large garden, so a high-tech genius like Murphy living as a farmer fascinates me. In him I see a modern-day Zen master with a powerful message about the future for commodity investing, for America and the world.
What's the connection between Murphy and McKibben? In his latest book, Eaarth, McKibben says: "Act now, we're told, if we want to save the planet from a climate catastrophe. Trouble is, it might be too late. The science is settled, and the damage has already begun."? McKibben is a maverick who challenged the conventional wisdom of unlimited growth in a world that "does not have enough natural resources to sustain endless economic expansion."?
Yet both refuse to give up. In "Deep Economy,"? McKibben encourages new ways of thinking that "concentrate on creating localized economies"? and living off the land rather than "promoting accelerated cycles of economic expansion, a mindset that triggered an economic meltdown and brought the world to the brink of environmental disaster."? Murphy falls in the same tradition as McKibben.
Murphy's been living off his farms for 25 years, much like McKibben who has been living a sustainable, organic, natural lifestyle most of his life, as we discovered in everything he's written since his 1989 classic, "The End of Nature."? Time magazine called McKibben "the world's best green journalist."? And while biotech expert Murphy isn't known as an environmental advocate, he is a living example of everything McKibben advocates, a true modern Zen master whose daily experience with the land, animals and nature clearly puts him in the same league as McKibben.
Zen masters are known for being practical, honest and direct. That Murphy fits that profile was obvious in his responses when I asked for comments on the 12 key elements in " The coming Population Wars: 12-bomb equation,"? my column on evolutionary anthropologist Jared Diamond's 2005 Pulitzer prize winner, "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed."? In it Diamond paints a dark scenario:
"One of the disturbing facts of history is that so many civilizations collapse,"? warns Diamond. So many "civilizations share a sharp curve of decline. Indeed, a society's demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth and power."? Diamond's 12-part equation reflected the Pentagon's 2020 global warfare scenario: "More people require more food, space, water, energy, and other resources,"? resulting in "warfare defining human life on the planet,"? the end of economic growth and capitalism, even civilization.
Murphy is one of those obsessed souls, like McKibben, who refuses to accept Diamond's seemingly inevitable scenario. Instead, Murphy keeps fighting to change the course of history, in his work as a biotech expert and as a high-tech farmer. We expected something special from Murphy and we're not disappointed. Here are his blunt remarks, beginning with this powerful admission that could have been made by Diamond: "We are long past the point that technology or biotech can prevent a significant die-off."?
1. Overpopulation. Murphy warns that "the carrying capacity of the earth is much lower than the current population,"? which is predicted to increase 50% by 2050. "Antares Pharmaceuticals /quotes/comstock/14*!ais/quotes/nls/ais (AIS 1.73, +0.09, +5.49%) is working with The Population Council on a transdermal gel that carries birth-control drugs. I expect it to be successful on its own terms, but"?big families are a cultural and economic preference that takes a long time to change, probably too long"? to be effective in slowing population growth and the demand for commodities.
2. Population demand multiplier. Not only is the world's population greater than "carrying capacity"? of the earth, if everyone in the world were living the same lifestyle as Americans "â? consuming and wasting commodity resources at the same rate "â? it would take six earths to sustain the world's population today. So Murphy says, "The only hope I see here is that the dream changes to a small house/small car for ecological reasons, with fewer physical toys and more emphasis on electronic entertainment and communications. Still, the multiplier effect is very big."?
3. Food. A "big problem,"? Murphy warns. "We may be at peak food,"? he says.
"Monsanto's seeds just elicit more powerful bugs and weeds, and the farmers wind up making less money net of what they have to pay Monsanto. The collapse of wild foods is not recoverable."? And that includes wild seafood in oceans worldwide.
4. Water. Murphy also warns we "may be at peak water."? Why? Because "processing water takes energy. Small solar distillation plants may help some people, but an awful lot of areas will run out of water. I was married in India, at Agra, and we took a day trip to Fatehpur Sikri to see Fatehabad, a beautiful city that was constructed beginning in 1570. Semiprecious stones in marble around doorways, etc. It is a Unesco world heritage site. It took 15 years to build, and was the capital of the Mughal Empire from 1571 to 1585. It was then abandoned due to the lack of water, and today is a ghost town. That's going to happen to lots of places all over the world."?
Paul Farrell writes the column on behavioral economics. He's the author of nine books on personal finance, economics and psychology, including "The Millionaire Code," "The Winning Portfolio," "The Lazy Person's Guide to Investing." Farrell was an investment banker with Morgan Stanley; executive vice president of the Financial News Network; executive vice president of Mercury Entertainment Corp; and associate editor of the Los Angeles Herald Examiner. He has a Juris Doctor and a Doctorate in Psychology.
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