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Jon Markman's Speculations
Jan. 3, 2011, 12:00 a.m. EST
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Barnes & Noble is a holiday standout
By Jon Markman, MarketWatch
SEATTLE (MarketWatch) "” What is it about the start of a new decade that makes markets stir?
During the past 30 years, they have been crazy, stressful, amazing periods that have started with great hope but were punctured in some nasty way with war, recession or a serious slump in equity and credit. It's as if the market gods want to take investors by the collar and remind them about risk before allowing them to enjoy the next nine years.
In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait during a year when U.S. corporate results were already weak. The price of oil shot up, consumers seized up and the economy tipped into recession "” leaving stocks with losses and investors smarting. But most of the next nine years were among the best for investors in history.
In 2000, the Nasdaq Composite Index /quotes/comstock/10y!i:comp (COMP 2,692, +39.50, +1.49%) first lifted 1,000 points to set a record at just more than 5,000 "” then spent the rest of the year giving it all back and more. That initial shot higher was also a tease, belying a decade of trouble for stocks.
So here we are in 2010, having suffered through a painful sovereign-debt drama in Europe, persistent high unemployment in the United States and an inflation wildfire in China. This must be one more plot to get investors off guard.
But don't fall for it this time.
The next year, and even the next decade, could surprise us all with a stunning upside. It is precisely when the world looks like it is about to spin off its axis that the wheel of fortune tends to point higher.
I've run the numbers and come up with three sectors that I think will be dominating the headlines (and markets) next year, as well as some of the top companies in each of these industries.
The most sweeping theme in technology for 2010 will keep barreling forward into 2011: the expansion of the mobile Internet in the lives of every American.
David Bianco, chief U.S. equities strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. is bullish on technology and sees strength in tech conglomerates, as well as emerging markets, energy and industrials.
If the 1990s were about the rise of the personal computer and the 2000s were about the rise of the corporate and public network, then the 2010s are all about the rise of the mobile network.
With lightning speed, people will come to rely more intensively on keeping their data in the "cloud" rather than on their desktops, and will expect to have all of their entertainment, communication and information-gathering tools at their fingertips at all times. Read about the top 10 IPOs of 2010 on InvestorPlace.
The top stocks, which can be owned as a basket, are the following:
Consumer facing: Google Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!goog (GOOG 604.42, +10.45, +1.76%) , Apple Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!aapl (AAPL 329.37, +6.81, +2.11%) , Priceline.com Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!pcln/quotes/nls/pcln (PCLN 414.47, +14.92, +3.73%) , Amazon.com Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!amzn/quotes/nls/amzn (AMZN 184.63, +4.63, +2.57%) and Baidu Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!bidu (BIDU 99.86, +3.33, +3.45%)
Jon Markman is a money manager and investment adviser in Seattle. For more ideas like these, try a two-week trial to Markman's daily investment newsletter, Strategic Advantage, published in partnership with MarketWatch, or his daily trading newsletter, Trader's Advantage. His Twitter feed is @jdmarkman.
Booksellers Barnes & Noble and Borders Group have had their share of challenges, but this holiday showed Barnes & Noble's luck may be changing, writes Angela Moore.
12:33 p.m. Today12:33 p.m. Jan. 3, 2011
"Manufacturing grows faster in December http://bit.ly/dPRIyb" 1:41 p.m. EST, Jan. 3, 2011 from MarketWatch
"#Facebook friend request lands Goldman http://bit.ly/dXS12l" 12:41 p.m. EST, Jan. 3, 2011 from MarketWatch
"Treasury yields, U.S. dollar higher after ISM factory gauge rises; stocks hold gains http://on.mktw.net/fpgotv" 10:10 a.m. EST, Jan. 3, 2011 from MarketWatch
"Dow industrials up 100 points as U.S. stocks surge into the new year http://on.mktw.net/gXy4e1" 9:35 a.m. EST, Jan. 3, 2011 from MarketWatch
"Coming this week: Major U.S. employment and manufacturing data http://on.mktw.net/ij304N" 8:53 a.m. EST, Jan. 3, 2011 from MarketWatch
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