I'm Talking Bearishly, But Investing Bullishly

This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Jan. 3 at 7:31 a.m. EST.

The media and strategists (in particular) are almost universally optimistic and remarkably certain and confident of view. With few exceptions -- here is one -- a smooth and self-sustaining economic expansion has now become consensus. My hedge fund cabal, though a relatively small sampling, is talking bearishly but investing bullishly. I continue to see risk in the unresolved tension between the short-term tailwinds of monetary stimulation and the longer-term headwinds of fiscal imbalances (local, state, federal and non-U.S.), a reluctance to move on the domestic deficit, the inevitability of higher marginal taxes, the screwflation of the middle class and other nontraditional factors. More immediate, a still-moribund housing market, vulnerable corporate profit margins, and rising food, energy and interest rate costs are causes for concern. An unusual impediment to smooth and self-sustaining recovery is a relatively anemic trajectory of expansion -- "it's different this time" -- which exposes the slope of the recovery to policy mistakes, the long tail of the last credit cycle and other unexpected and exogenous events. This should limit valuations and most likely result in a contraction in P/E multiples during this year. No doubt the trend remains the friend of investors in early January, as the second verse (2011) appears to be starting off resembling the first verse (2010). Nevertheless, my baseline expectation remains for a sideways/flat market in 2011 that should provide numerous trading opportunities for those willing to sell the rips and buy the dips. Doug Kass writes daily for RealMoney Silver, a premium bundle service from TheStreet.com. For a free trial to RealMoney Silver and exclusive access to Mr. Kass's daily trading diary, please click here. Add Comment Tweet Doug Kass is the general partner Seabreeze Partners Long/Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Long/Short Offshore LP. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. var OutbrainPermaLink='http://www.thestreet.com/story/10958627/kass-the-risk-remains.html'; var OB_Template = "thestreetcom"; var OB_demoMode = false; var OBITm = "1276003897985"; var OB_langJS ='http://widgets.outbrain.com/lang_en.js'; if ( typeof(OB_Script)!='undefined' ) OutbrainStart(); else { var OB_Script = true; var str = ''; document.write(str); } adsonar_placementId=1341527;adsonar_pid=879768;adsonar_ps=-1;adsonar_zw=600;adsonar_zh=280;adsonar_jv='ads.adsonar.com'; TheStreet Premium Services Compare All Services Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS: Now any level of investor can trade right alongside a Wall Street pro â?? and enjoy 24/7 access to his portfolio! Learn More Login ETF Profits: Get money-making ideas from the hottest investment vehicle on the planet. Our experts show you how to play various ETF sectors to help pump-up your portfolio. Learn More Login OptionsProfits: Get 50+ trade ideas a week from the industry's top options experts. Plus â?? exclusive commentary on market trends and essential trading tools. Learn More Login RealMoney Silver: Get Doug Kass's exclusive trading diary + 5 of TheStreet's top premium services including Action Alerts PLUS and RealMoney â?? all on one streamlined page. Learn More Login Stocks Under $10: Break into the market with small- and mid-cap stocks... all $10 or less! David Peltier tells you exactly which low-priced stocks he's buying and selling. Learn More Login RealMoney Breakout Stocks Portfolio PLUS Daily Swing Trade Market Movers ETF Shark Alerts TheStreet Ratings Top Stocks ETF Action To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details. var disqus_identifier = '10958627'; (function() { var dsq = document.createElement('script'); dsq.type = 'text/javascript'; dsq.async = true; dsq.src = 'http://thestreet.disqus.com/embed.js'; (document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0] || document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0]).appendChild(dsq); })(); comments powered by Disqus. blog comments powered by Disqus //* Global Functions *// function metadataRegisterNS(ns){ var nsParts = ns.split("."); var root = window; for(var i=0; i Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note 11670.75 1271.89 2691.52 33.42 Oil * 95.05 UP 93.24 UP 14.25 UP 38.65 UP 0.37 10 Yr 3.34% SPDR Gold 138.0 0.81% 1.13% 1.46% 1.12% Data delayed 20 minutes More From TheStreet var randnum = Math.floor(Math.random() * 100) if (randnum < 45) { document.write("Ex-Dividend Date Calendar"); document.write("Cramer's Latest Picks from Mad Money"); document.write("Free: Stock Rating Reports"); document.write("Top-Rated Stocks"); document.write("Unusual Trading Volume"); document.write("Top-Rated ETFs"); } else { document.write("10 Best Dow Dividend Stocks"); document.write("Top Stocks Under $5"); document.write("Layoffs Mount in 2010"); document.write("8 Cheapest Dow Dividend Stocks"); document.write("Goldman's Best Stock Picks for 2011"); document.write("Barclay's Best Stock Picks for 2011"); } Twitter Facebook RSS Mobile App adsonar_placementId=1341369;adsonar_pid=879768;adsonar_ps=-1;adsonar_zw=320;adsonar_zh=280;adsonar_jv='ads.adsonar.com'; Brokerage Partners YAHOO.util.Event.on(window,"load",function(){ setTimeout(function(){ TSCM.util.attachScript('scr_intellitxt','http://thestreet.us.intellitxt.com/intellitxt/front.asp?ipid=10685'); },1200); }); try { function DM_onSegsAvailable(segs, cust_id) { for (var i=0;i document.write(unescape("%3Cscript src='" + (document.location.protocol == "https:" ? "https://sb" : "http://b") + ".scorecardresearch.com/beacon.js' %3E%3C/script%3E")); var beaconurl=""; if(TSC.util.isDefined(document)){ beaconurl=document.URL; try{ if (top.location != self.location){ beaconurl=document.referrer; } }catch(e){} } COMSCORE.beacon({ c1:2, c2:"6036014", c3:"", c4:beaconurl, c5:"", c6:"", c15:"" }); (function () { var d = new Image(1, 1); d.onerror = d.onload = function () { d.onerror = d.onload = null; }; d.src = ["//secure-us.imrworldwide.com/cgi-bin/m?ci=us-thestreet&cg=tsc&cc=1&si=", escape(window.location.href), "&rp=", escape(document.referrer), "&ts=compact&rnd=", (new Date()).getTime()].join(''); })(); Free Newsletters from TheStreet

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

ETF Daily

Midday Bell

TSC Top Ten Stories Newsletter

Winners & Losers

We respect your privacy. Manage Newsletters Podcasts [Select Podcast] The Real Story Wall Street Confidential Podcast Daily RSS Updates

TheStreet Mobile Edition

Connect with TheStreet

YAHOO.util.Event.on(window,"load",function() { try { var loginlink = YAHOO.util.Dom.get("logonoff"); var cookie = new UserStatus().streetCookie; if(cookie.indexOf('|')== -1){ loginlink.setAttribute("href",""); loginlink.innerHTML = "Log In"; } } catch(e) {} }); TheStreet Mobile | MainStreet | StockPickr | BankingMyWay | Jim Cramer | Doug Kass | RealMoney | Try Action Alerts PLUS TheStreet Corporate | Home | About Us | Advertise | Customer Service | Employment | Privacy Policy | Sitemap | Topic Archive | Video Archive | Terms of Use document.write('

© 1996-2011 TheStreet.com, Inc. All rights reserved.TheStreet's enterprise databases running Oracle are professionally monitored and managed by Pythian Remote DBA.

Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data provided by Interactive Data. Company fundamental data provided by Morningstar. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Terms & Conditions. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions.

TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

IDC calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.

*Oil Data in Market Overview is Brent Crude Pricing

'); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.sz = "728x90"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.resetTargets(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.calltype = "adj"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.includeDcopt = true; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.additionalTargeting = ";;storytype=investingOpinion;kval=investingOpinion"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.writeTag(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.sz = "233x224"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.resetTargets(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.calltype = "adj"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.adtype = "cau"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.additionalTargeting = ";;storytype=investingOpinion;kval=investingOpinion"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.writeTag(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.sz = "336x280,336x850,300x250,468x648"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.resetTargets(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.calltype = "adj"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.additionalTargeting = ";;storytype=investingOpinion;kval=investingOpinion;;storytype=investingOpinion;kval=investingOpinion"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.writeTag(); /** * function wrapper that places all DART ads using TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder * if positionToPlaceholder can't find the elements specified, it just returns and is ready for the next call */ TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds = function() { // DART 1 (banner) TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'ad728x90', placeholder: 'bannerContainer', flexibleHeight: false }); //DART 2 TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'customUnit', placeholder: 'cauContainer', flexibleHeight: true }); //DART 3 TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'boxAd', placeholder: 'boxAdContainer', flexibleHeight: true }); //DART 4 TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'secondBoxAd', placeholder: 'secondBoxAdContainer', flexibleHeight: false }); }; TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds() window.setTimeout(function() { TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds() }, 2000); window.onresize = function() { setTimeout(function() { TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds(); }, 1000); }; YAHOO.util.event.onDOMReady( YAHOO.util.Dom.setStyle("lazyLoadedObjects", "visibility", "visible") ); var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'UA-6534317-1']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); _gaq.push(['_setCustomVar', 1, // This custom var is set to slot #1. Required parameter. 'gwo2', // The name acts as a kind of category for the user activity. Required parameter. 'gw-' + getcombo_ga2("7-0-0"), // This value of the custom variable. Required parameter. 2 // Sets the scope to session-level. Optional parameter. ]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'recommended', 'LOADED']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); /* */ var disqus_shortname = 'thestreet'; (function () { var s = document.createElement('script'); s.async = true; s.src = 'http://disqus.com/forums/thestreet/count.js'; (document.getElementsByTagName('HEAD')[0] || document.getElementsByTagName('BODY')[0]).appendChild(s); }()); BF_BB_DATA = null; (function( ){ document.write(''); var sid="76IOF7"; var c=""; var b=""; BF_BB_SCRIPT=document.createElement('script'); BF_BB_SCRIPT.type="text/javascript"; BF_BB_SRC="http://buzzbox.buzzfeed.com/wd/BuzzBox?sid=" + sid + c + b + '&it=1&cb=' + (new Date()).getTime(); setTimeout(function() { document.getElementById('BF_BUZZBOX').appendChild(BF_BB_SCRIPT); BF_BB_SCRIPT.src=BF_BB_SRC; },1); })();

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

ETF Daily

Midday Bell

TSC Top Ten Stories Newsletter

Winners & Losers

TheStreet Mobile Edition

Connect with TheStreet

Read Full Article »