Economics: Facing a Marked Global Reversal

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By Joseph Stiglitz

Published: January 3 2011 21:59 | Last updated: January 3 2011 21:59

2011 will be a hard year for globalisation. 2008 showed that our global era can bring faster growth, but faster declines too "“ as a crisis made in America spread quickly. 2009 saw the benefits of a global response, but in 2010 divisions returned. Asian growth bounced back, but advanced countries were mired in high unemployment. 2011 will see further divergences. In spite of evidence that Keynesian policies worked (China being the pre-eminent case) and austerity led to predictable contractions, much of Europe is pushing austerity anyway. The moment of coordinated macropolicies aimed at recovery is a faint memory.

Worse, America's quantitative easing is now viewed as an update of the policies that marked the Great Depression. The world is waking up to the way exchange rates can be used in self-promotion at the expense of others "“ discouraging imports and enhancing exports. America says its monetary policy promotes investment by lowering interest rates, not exchange rates. But emerging countries claim their interventions are to build up reserves, not protect against volatile capital markets.

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