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By Jim O'Neill
Published: January 10 2011 12:43 | Last updated: January 10 2011 12:43
My hunch for the surprise of 2011 is that the US will positively shake people up. For many of the past few years, including preceding the global credit crisis, I shared the worry of many others about the sustainability of the US economy due to the low savings rate, excessive reliance on over-levered consumers and the dependency on foreign capital. However, I have differed from many about the consequences of the crisis in two key respects.
First, due to the power of the so-called Bric economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and the other key "growth economies" (Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico and Turkey), I believed that the world economy would recover much more easily than many considered possible. That was last year's surprise. Second, I believed that in spite of the considerable challenges for the consumer, the US economy would not fall into a Japan-style abyss of a lost decade or two. The evidence that the US will not go down this route will, I suspect, be this year's surprise.
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