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Jan. 12, 2011, 2:08 p.m. EST
By Steve Kerch, MarketWatch
ORLANDO, Fla. (MarketWatch) "” Housing will rebound moderately in 2011, economists at the International Building Show here are predicting and should gain even more steam in 2012.
But the recovery in home building and home sales will vary widely from one part of the country to another, with the states that had the most success during the boom times of the last decade being the last to come back from their historic bust, according to an analysis from the Portland Cement Association.
Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher says there's a reason the Lone Star State keeps growing.
"The headwinds are still facing us in housing. They are less than they were but they are still in place," said Edward Sullivan, chief economist for the PCA, who examined data on mortgage delinquencies, unemployment rates and home-price declines to create a state-by-state recovery prediction.
The housing markets that still face the hardest going, led by Nevada, account for more than 50% of the U.S. housing market, Sullivan pointed out, while those that will recover the fastest make up only 20%. That means the better times in those states won't do much to lift overall national housing numbers.
Here are the five states where housing will recover the quickest:
North Dakota has the lowest mortgage delinquency rate of any state, just 0.9%. It also has shown the best home-price performance of any state, with values up 7.2% from the peak of everyone else's boom in 2005 to what was a trough for everybody else in 2010.Only Texas, Vermont and South Dakota also reported gains over that time.
The category the state did not lead was unemployment, which at 7.5% was just about double that of its southern neighbor South Dakota, which at 3.7% boasted the lowest rate.
In addition to its low unemployment number, South Dakota also sports the second-lowest mortgage delinquency rate at 1.5%. And the state also managed to steer clear of the home-price cliff, with prices having risen 0.5% from 2005 to 2010.
The Hawkeye State managed to keep its home prices nearly level over the worst five years in history for everyone else, with prices falling just 0.4%. Mortgage delinquencies are only 2.2% of outstanding loans in the state and the unemployment rate of 6.8% is still well below the national average.
At 4.4%, Cornhuskers enjoy the second-lowest unemployment rate in the nation. Just 2.0% of outstanding mortgages are delinquent and home prices fell only 3.5% from peak to trough while the average for the country was a 20% drop.
Spinoff plans, the second in two days, pack a big payday. More such moves might even help the economy.
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