By Charles Rotbout, CFA & Vice President with AAII
Bullish sentiment declined 3.5 percentage points to 52.3% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the dip, optimism that stock prices will rise stayed above its historical average of 39% for the 19th consecutive week, matching the streak set in the second half of 2004.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will be essentially flat over the next six months, slipped 1.6 percentage points to 24.2%. This was the 23rd consecutive week that neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 5.2 percentage points to 23.4%. Though this is a four-week high for pessimism, pessimism is below its historical average for the 16th time in the past 18 weeks.
Though there was a decline this week, bullish sentiment remains in the range that has largely held over the past six weeks. This has resulted in the eight-week moving average reaching 53%, its highest level since January 6, 2005. High levels of bullish sentiment have been correlated with market reversals, but other indicators should be considered before making a market forecast.
As noted above, bullish sentiment has been above its historical average for 19 consecutive weeks, matching the streak set during the period of August 26 through December 30, 2004. A record streak of 42 consecutive weeks occurred during the period of May 29, 2003, through March 11, 2004, when investors realized that a recovery from the decade's first bear market was fully underway.
(Chart provided by pragcap.com)
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The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of firms affiliated with the author(s). The opinions of all guest authors or contributors can and will differ from those of Mr. Roche. These opinions do not necessarily represent the opinions or investment decisions of Mr. Roche. The author(s) may or may not have a position in any security referenced herein and may or may not seek to do business with one another or companies mentioned via this website. Any action that you take as a result of information or analysis on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
A brief note on comments â?? The increase in users in recent months has resulted in an increase in unproductive comments. Any user who engages in the use of racial epithets or uses the comment section as a place to insult other users will be banned from the site. The comment section is welcome to all readers who are interested in asking pertinent questions and/or engaging in thoughtful, intelligent, and productive debate. In short, just be nice. Thanks.
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More on this topic (What's this?) AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Dips, But Stays High at 52.3% (Wall St. Cheat Sheet, 1/13/11) Sentiment Signals: A call for caution (Investment Postcards from Cape Town, 1/8/11) Significant Decline In Bullish Investor Sentiment (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 1/2/11) With AAII Bullish Sentiment Near Historical Highs, Is A Market Top Imminent? (Black Swan Insights, 12/27/10) Read more on Alabama Aircraft Industr at Wikinvest icBrokerWidget('pragcap', 600, 55); Leave a Comment Name Mail (will not be published) Website Click here to cancel reply. Popular Stories THE BEST RISING INTEREST RATE TRADE: In a recent strategy note Credit Suisse analysts noted the risk of rising interest rates and the pot... THE MARKET IS A HEARTLESS BEAST: Markets do not care about you. They don't care about your family, your feelings and they particula... HENDRY: CHINA REMAINS A BLACK SWAN: Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer and co-founder of London-based Eclectica Asset Management LLP ... GUNDLACH: EQUITIES WILL FALL 10%+ FROM CURRENT LEVELS: Jeff Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine just wrapped up a superb conference call with investors. B... THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK: 1) Bigger is better? 2) Commodities and China can't both be right. 3) Bubbles in the USA? ... 10 REASONS TO STOP THE EURO BAILOUTS: We live in interesting times. Bailouts appear to fix everything. Central bankers can do no wrong... GREENSPAN CHALLENGES CRITICS, PROVES HE DOESN'T UNDERSTAND U.S. MONETARY SYSTEM: In this week's Big Interview with the WSJ Alan Greenspan lashed out at his critics. Dr. Greenspan ... WHAT TO EXPECT THIS EARNINGS SEASON: Another earnings season is right around the bend and it's shaping up to be very similar to the last ... BULLISH SENTIMENT BACK TO HIGHS: According to the latest sentiment reading from Investor's Intelligence bullishness has once again ju... DEEP THOUGHTS BY WHITNEY TILSON: Some good weekend reading here from Whitney Tilson of T2. Jay at MarketFolly provides an excellent ... REGISTER FOR PC LOG-IN TO PC var sc_project=5036143; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_partition=57; var sc_click_stat=1; var sc_security="5e6f901b"; icBeacon('pragcap');© 2009 pragcap.com · Register for PC
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More on this topic (What's this?) AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Dips, But Stays High at 52.3% (Wall St. Cheat Sheet, 1/13/11) Sentiment Signals: A call for caution (Investment Postcards from Cape Town, 1/8/11) Significant Decline In Bullish Investor Sentiment (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 1/2/11) With AAII Bullish Sentiment Near Historical Highs, Is A Market Top Imminent? (Black Swan Insights, 12/27/10) Read more on Alabama Aircraft Industr at Wikinvest icBrokerWidget('pragcap', 600, 55); Leave a Comment Name Mail (will not be published) Website Click here to cancel reply. Popular Stories THE BEST RISING INTEREST RATE TRADE: In a recent strategy note Credit Suisse analysts noted the risk of rising interest rates and the pot... THE MARKET IS A HEARTLESS BEAST: Markets do not care about you. They don't care about your family, your feelings and they particula... HENDRY: CHINA REMAINS A BLACK SWAN: Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer and co-founder of London-based Eclectica Asset Management LLP ... GUNDLACH: EQUITIES WILL FALL 10%+ FROM CURRENT LEVELS: Jeff Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine just wrapped up a superb conference call with investors. B... THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK: 1) Bigger is better? 2) Commodities and China can't both be right. 3) Bubbles in the USA? ... 10 REASONS TO STOP THE EURO BAILOUTS: We live in interesting times. Bailouts appear to fix everything. Central bankers can do no wrong... GREENSPAN CHALLENGES CRITICS, PROVES HE DOESN'T UNDERSTAND U.S. MONETARY SYSTEM: In this week's Big Interview with the WSJ Alan Greenspan lashed out at his critics. Dr. Greenspan ... WHAT TO EXPECT THIS EARNINGS SEASON: Another earnings season is right around the bend and it's shaping up to be very similar to the last ... BULLISH SENTIMENT BACK TO HIGHS: According to the latest sentiment reading from Investor's Intelligence bullishness has once again ju... DEEP THOUGHTS BY WHITNEY TILSON: Some good weekend reading here from Whitney Tilson of T2. Jay at MarketFolly provides an excellent ... REGISTER FOR PC LOG-IN TO PC var sc_project=5036143; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_partition=57; var sc_click_stat=1; var sc_security="5e6f901b"; icBeacon('pragcap');© 2009 pragcap.com · Register for PC
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By Charles Rotbout, CFA & Vice President with AAII
Bullish sentiment declined 3.5 percentage points to 52.3% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the dip, optimism that stock prices will rise stayed above its historical average of 39% for the 19th consecutive week, matching the streak set in the second half of 2004.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will be essentially flat over the next six months, slipped 1.6 percentage points to 24.2%. This was the 23rd consecutive week that neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 5.2 percentage points to 23.4%. Though this is a four-week high for pessimism, pessimism is below its historical average for the 16th time in the past 18 weeks.
Though there was a decline this week, bullish sentiment remains in the range that has largely held over the past six weeks. This has resulted in the eight-week moving average reaching 53%, its highest level since January 6, 2005. High levels of bullish sentiment have been correlated with market reversals, but other indicators should be considered before making a market forecast.
As noted above, bullish sentiment has been above its historical average for 19 consecutive weeks, matching the streak set during the period of August 26 through December 30, 2004. A record streak of 42 consecutive weeks occurred during the period of May 29, 2003, through March 11, 2004, when investors realized that a recovery from the decade's first bear market was fully underway.
(Chart provided by pragcap.com)
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The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of firms affiliated with the author(s). The opinions of all guest authors or contributors can and will differ from those of Mr. Roche. These opinions do not necessarily represent the opinions or investment decisions of Mr. Roche. The author(s) may or may not have a position in any security referenced herein and may or may not seek to do business with one another or companies mentioned via this website. Any action that you take as a result of information or analysis on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
A brief note on comments â?? The increase in users in recent months has resulted in an increase in unproductive comments. Any user who engages in the use of racial epithets or uses the comment section as a place to insult other users will be banned from the site. The comment section is welcome to all readers who are interested in asking pertinent questions and/or engaging in thoughtful, intelligent, and productive debate. In short, just be nice. Thanks.
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More on this topic (What's this?) AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Dips, But Stays High at 52.3% (Wall St. Cheat Sheet, 1/13/11) Sentiment Signals: A call for caution (Investment Postcards from Cape Town, 1/8/11) Significant Decline In Bullish Investor Sentiment (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 1/2/11) With AAII Bullish Sentiment Near Historical Highs, Is A Market Top Imminent? (Black Swan Insights, 12/27/10) Read more on Alabama Aircraft Industr at Wikinvest icBrokerWidget('pragcap', 600, 55); Leave a Comment Name Mail (will not be published) Website Click here to cancel reply. Popular Stories THE BEST RISING INTEREST RATE TRADE: In a recent strategy note Credit Suisse analysts noted the risk of rising interest rates and the pot... THE MARKET IS A HEARTLESS BEAST: Markets do not care about you. They don't care about your family, your feelings and they particula... HENDRY: CHINA REMAINS A BLACK SWAN: Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer and co-founder of London-based Eclectica Asset Management LLP ... GUNDLACH: EQUITIES WILL FALL 10%+ FROM CURRENT LEVELS: Jeff Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine just wrapped up a superb conference call with investors. B... THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK: 1) Bigger is better? 2) Commodities and China can't both be right. 3) Bubbles in the USA? ... 10 REASONS TO STOP THE EURO BAILOUTS: We live in interesting times. Bailouts appear to fix everything. Central bankers can do no wrong... GREENSPAN CHALLENGES CRITICS, PROVES HE DOESN'T UNDERSTAND U.S. MONETARY SYSTEM: In this week's Big Interview with the WSJ Alan Greenspan lashed out at his critics. Dr. Greenspan ... WHAT TO EXPECT THIS EARNINGS SEASON: Another earnings season is right around the bend and it's shaping up to be very similar to the last ... BULLISH SENTIMENT BACK TO HIGHS: According to the latest sentiment reading from Investor's Intelligence bullishness has once again ju... DEEP THOUGHTS BY WHITNEY TILSON: Some good weekend reading here from Whitney Tilson of T2. Jay at MarketFolly provides an excellent ... REGISTER FOR PC LOG-IN TO PC var sc_project=5036143; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_partition=57; var sc_click_stat=1; var sc_security="5e6f901b"; icBeacon('pragcap');© 2009 pragcap.com · Register for PC
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More on this topic (What's this?) AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Dips, But Stays High at 52.3% (Wall St. Cheat Sheet, 1/13/11) Sentiment Signals: A call for caution (Investment Postcards from Cape Town, 1/8/11) Significant Decline In Bullish Investor Sentiment (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 1/2/11) With AAII Bullish Sentiment Near Historical Highs, Is A Market Top Imminent? (Black Swan Insights, 12/27/10) Read more on Alabama Aircraft Industr at Wikinvest icBrokerWidget('pragcap', 600, 55); Leave a Comment Name Mail (will not be published) Website Click here to cancel reply. Popular Stories THE BEST RISING INTEREST RATE TRADE: In a recent strategy note Credit Suisse analysts noted the risk of rising interest rates and the pot... THE MARKET IS A HEARTLESS BEAST: Markets do not care about you. They don't care about your family, your feelings and they particula... HENDRY: CHINA REMAINS A BLACK SWAN: Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer and co-founder of London-based Eclectica Asset Management LLP ... GUNDLACH: EQUITIES WILL FALL 10%+ FROM CURRENT LEVELS: Jeff Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine just wrapped up a superb conference call with investors. B... THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK: 1) Bigger is better? 2) Commodities and China can't both be right. 3) Bubbles in the USA? ... 10 REASONS TO STOP THE EURO BAILOUTS: We live in interesting times. Bailouts appear to fix everything. Central bankers can do no wrong... GREENSPAN CHALLENGES CRITICS, PROVES HE DOESN'T UNDERSTAND U.S. MONETARY SYSTEM: In this week's Big Interview with the WSJ Alan Greenspan lashed out at his critics. Dr. Greenspan ... WHAT TO EXPECT THIS EARNINGS SEASON: Another earnings season is right around the bend and it's shaping up to be very similar to the last ... BULLISH SENTIMENT BACK TO HIGHS: According to the latest sentiment reading from Investor's Intelligence bullishness has once again ju... DEEP THOUGHTS BY WHITNEY TILSON: Some good weekend reading here from Whitney Tilson of T2. Jay at MarketFolly provides an excellent ... REGISTER FOR PC LOG-IN TO PC var sc_project=5036143; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_partition=57; var sc_click_stat=1; var sc_security="5e6f901b"; icBeacon('pragcap');© 2009 pragcap.com · Register for PC
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By Charles Rotbout, CFA & Vice President with AAII
Bullish sentiment declined 3.5 percentage points to 52.3% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the dip, optimism that stock prices will rise stayed above its historical average of 39% for the 19th consecutive week, matching the streak set in the second half of 2004.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will be essentially flat over the next six months, slipped 1.6 percentage points to 24.2%. This was the 23rd consecutive week that neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 5.2 percentage points to 23.4%. Though this is a four-week high for pessimism, pessimism is below its historical average for the 16th time in the past 18 weeks.
Though there was a decline this week, bullish sentiment remains in the range that has largely held over the past six weeks. This has resulted in the eight-week moving average reaching 53%, its highest level since January 6, 2005. High levels of bullish sentiment have been correlated with market reversals, but other indicators should be considered before making a market forecast.
As noted above, bullish sentiment has been above its historical average for 19 consecutive weeks, matching the streak set during the period of August 26 through December 30, 2004. A record streak of 42 consecutive weeks occurred during the period of May 29, 2003, through March 11, 2004, when investors realized that a recovery from the decade's first bear market was fully underway.
(Chart provided by pragcap.com)
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The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of firms affiliated with the author(s). The opinions of all guest authors or contributors can and will differ from those of Mr. Roche. These opinions do not necessarily represent the opinions or investment decisions of Mr. Roche. The author(s) may or may not have a position in any security referenced herein and may or may not seek to do business with one another or companies mentioned via this website. Any action that you take as a result of information or analysis on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.
A brief note on comments â?? The increase in users in recent months has resulted in an increase in unproductive comments. Any user who engages in the use of racial epithets or uses the comment section as a place to insult other users will be banned from the site. The comment section is welcome to all readers who are interested in asking pertinent questions and/or engaging in thoughtful, intelligent, and productive debate. In short, just be nice. Thanks.
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More on this topic (What's this?) AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Dips, But Stays High at 52.3% (Wall St. Cheat Sheet, 1/13/11) Sentiment Signals: A call for caution (Investment Postcards from Cape Town, 1/8/11) Significant Decline In Bullish Investor Sentiment (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 1/2/11) With AAII Bullish Sentiment Near Historical Highs, Is A Market Top Imminent? (Black Swan Insights, 12/27/10) Read more on Alabama Aircraft Industr at Wikinvest icBrokerWidget('pragcap', 600, 55); Leave a Comment Name Mail (will not be published) Website Click here to cancel reply. Popular Stories THE BEST RISING INTEREST RATE TRADE: In a recent strategy note Credit Suisse analysts noted the risk of rising interest rates and the pot... THE MARKET IS A HEARTLESS BEAST: Markets do not care about you. They don't care about your family, your feelings and they particula... HENDRY: CHINA REMAINS A BLACK SWAN: Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer and co-founder of London-based Eclectica Asset Management LLP ... GUNDLACH: EQUITIES WILL FALL 10%+ FROM CURRENT LEVELS: Jeff Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine just wrapped up a superb conference call with investors. B... THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK: 1) Bigger is better? 2) Commodities and China can't both be right. 3) Bubbles in the USA? ... 10 REASONS TO STOP THE EURO BAILOUTS: We live in interesting times. Bailouts appear to fix everything. Central bankers can do no wrong... GREENSPAN CHALLENGES CRITICS, PROVES HE DOESN'T UNDERSTAND U.S. MONETARY SYSTEM: In this week's Big Interview with the WSJ Alan Greenspan lashed out at his critics. Dr. Greenspan ... WHAT TO EXPECT THIS EARNINGS SEASON: Another earnings season is right around the bend and it's shaping up to be very similar to the last ... BULLISH SENTIMENT BACK TO HIGHS: According to the latest sentiment reading from Investor's Intelligence bullishness has once again ju... DEEP THOUGHTS BY WHITNEY TILSON: Some good weekend reading here from Whitney Tilson of T2. Jay at MarketFolly provides an excellent ... REGISTER FOR PC LOG-IN TO PC var sc_project=5036143; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_partition=57; var sc_click_stat=1; var sc_security="5e6f901b"; icBeacon('pragcap');© 2009 pragcap.com · Register for PC
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More on this topic (What's this?) AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Dips, But Stays High at 52.3% (Wall St. Cheat Sheet, 1/13/11) Sentiment Signals: A call for caution (Investment Postcards from Cape Town, 1/8/11) Significant Decline In Bullish Investor Sentiment (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 1/2/11) With AAII Bullish Sentiment Near Historical Highs, Is A Market Top Imminent? (Black Swan Insights, 12/27/10) Read more on Alabama Aircraft Industr at Wikinvest icBrokerWidget('pragcap', 600, 55); Leave a Comment Name Mail (will not be published) Website Click here to cancel reply. Popular Stories THE BEST RISING INTEREST RATE TRADE: In a recent strategy note Credit Suisse analysts noted the risk of rising interest rates and the pot... THE MARKET IS A HEARTLESS BEAST: Markets do not care about you. They don't care about your family, your feelings and they particula... HENDRY: CHINA REMAINS A BLACK SWAN: Hugh Hendry, chief investment officer and co-founder of London-based Eclectica Asset Management LLP ... GUNDLACH: EQUITIES WILL FALL 10%+ FROM CURRENT LEVELS: Jeff Gundlach, the founder of DoubleLine just wrapped up a superb conference call with investors. B... THREE THINGS I THINK I THINK: 1) Bigger is better? 2) Commodities and China can't both be right. 3) Bubbles in the USA? ... 10 REASONS TO STOP THE EURO BAILOUTS: We live in interesting times. Bailouts appear to fix everything. Central bankers can do no wrong... GREENSPAN CHALLENGES CRITICS, PROVES HE DOESN'T UNDERSTAND U.S. MONETARY SYSTEM: In this week's Big Interview with the WSJ Alan Greenspan lashed out at his critics. Dr. Greenspan ... WHAT TO EXPECT THIS EARNINGS SEASON: Another earnings season is right around the bend and it's shaping up to be very similar to the last ... BULLISH SENTIMENT BACK TO HIGHS: According to the latest sentiment reading from Investor's Intelligence bullishness has once again ju... DEEP THOUGHTS BY WHITNEY TILSON: Some good weekend reading here from Whitney Tilson of T2. Jay at MarketFolly provides an excellent ... REGISTER FOR PC LOG-IN TO PC var sc_project=5036143; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_partition=57; var sc_click_stat=1; var sc_security="5e6f901b"; icBeacon('pragcap');© 2009 pragcap.com · Register for PC
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By Charles Rotbout, CFA & Vice President with AAII
Bullish sentiment declined 3.5 percentage points to 52.3% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Despite the dip, optimism that stock prices will rise stayed above its historical average of 39% for the 19th consecutive week, matching the streak set in the second half of 2004.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will be essentially flat over the next six months, slipped 1.6 percentage points to 24.2%. This was the 23rd consecutive week that neutral sentiment has been below its historical average of 31%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 5.2 percentage points to 23.4%. Though this is a four-week high for pessimism, pessimism is below its historical average for the 16th time in the past 18 weeks.
Though there was a decline this week, bullish sentiment remains in the range that has largely held over the past six weeks. This has resulted in the eight-week moving average reaching 53%, its highest level since January 6, 2005. High levels of bullish sentiment have been correlated with market reversals, but other indicators should be considered before making a market forecast.
As noted above, bullish sentiment has been above its historical average for 19 consecutive weeks, matching the streak set during the period of August 26 through December 30, 2004. A record streak of 42 consecutive weeks occurred during the period of May 29, 2003, through March 11, 2004, when investors realized that a recovery from the decade's first bear market was fully underway.
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