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The ratio of readers who request the current views of the "mystery broker" to those who angrily demand "No more" is now high enough that an update is in order.
When I last invoked him (Streetwise, July 19, 2010), this broker, who has done a fine job calling the market's path in recent years on both sides of the crisis and prefers to stay anonymous, was bullish amid general anxiety. With the S&P 500 at 1064, he was calling for it to rise to 1300 by summer 2011; he later modified that 1300 to 1350. We are just about there, at 1293.
The broker is sticking with his call for a climb to 1300 to 1350 by June or July, interrupted by a 5% to 10% drop in the first quarter. Like 2005 (a touchstone year for this column this year) and 2007, about all of the annual gains will come in the first half. He rightly points out that the market has a lower valuation than in either '05 or '07, which should keep a lid on selloffs and spur buyout and merger action.
Essentially upbeat on the economy, which means corporate profits should come in roughly as forecast, he asserts that most of the good profit news of '11 was paid for by the near-two-year rally. (That rally, by the way, has now driven up the total value of U.S. stocks, as measured by the Wilshire 5000 index, by exactly 100% from the March 9, 2009, bear-market trough.)
It all makes sense, even if it doesn't depart profoundly from the prevailing Wall Street view.
On a shorter-term, tactical basis, by my sights, the market seems ill-equipped to shrug off any disturbance in the broadly held happy view. Make no mistake, the market is acting incredibly—almost literally incredibly—strong. Every slight wiggle lower is welcomed as a gift for apparently underinvested folks; retail investors have finally arrived with satchels of cash.
All this matches up nicely with the climate that prevailed near the springtime high this past April. That was the last time that the Dow, as it has just done, rose for seven straight weeks. And nearly every measure of individual and investor sentiment matches up quite closely to levels seen in late April, when this column suggested, "The main thing not to like, for the immediate market future if not the longer haul, is just how much most traders and investors are liking this action."
This isn't a prediction that the market is poised to tumble more than 15%, as it did starting April 23 amid the eruption of Europe sovereign-debt angst and unfounded double-dip fears. Stocks are cheaper now, based on expected and trailing earnings, than they were then, the economy appears sturdier and—crucially—the credit (if not muni) markets are unperturbed.
Still, at the risk of missing a further melt-up as the Fed sluices money into an economy that may not need it, it seems a low-probability moment to aggressively chase stocks higher.
IT MIGHT REQUIRE holding one's nose, and breath, to buy shares in Lorrilard (ticker: LO), for a couple of reasons.
First, some investors have a strong moral aversion to owning a piece of the cigarette industry. Another is the threat that a Food and Drug Administration committee might recommend curtailing, or banning, menthol cigarettes under a legal ban on "flavored" cigarettes, which until now exempted menthol.
The latter concern has knocked shares of Lorillard, whose Newport brand dominates in menthol, from above 89 on Nov. 9 to 77 today, leaving the stock at a steeply discounted valuation to its tobacco peers based on cash flow. The stock yields 5.8%. The market is registering fears that there is a decent chance of a menthol ban, and that Lorillard's business (85% reliant on menthol) would be decimated.
Those brave enough to bet that the FDA won't pass a menthol ban can get the company with the best balance sheet and growth prospects in the industry at a discount.
Longtime Morgan Stanley tobacco analyst David Adelman believes the risk of a ban is "fairly remote," given lack of scientific evidence of increased harm of menthol versus other smokes and concerns about reducing states' tobacco-tax income. The FDA committee is due to deliver a nonbinding recommendation in March. Adelman sees Lorillard's value at $95 on his base-case view that the menthol risk lifts. Downside, on the slim but real chance of a ban, could be $55.
With the probabilities weighed accordingly, the stock seems to offer better than a bettor's chance of a payoff.
E-mail: michael.santoli@barrons.com
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