Apple will be fine, again, under veteran COO Tim Cook. But the day will inevitably come when the board will have to a find a permanent replacement for their iconic leader.
Steve Jobs at an Apple event
Throughout the long, sad, information-deprived debate over the health of Steve Jobs, there have always been two parallel conversations about would happen if the Apple (AAPL) CEO were to leave his job prematurely.
On the one hand is the question of what would happen to Apple in the near term. That matter was more or less laid to rest during the last two medical emergencies that saw Jobs take temporary leaves: Apple hummed along without a hiccup. Yes, the stock price dropped. (As Phil Elmer-DeWitt reports today, the stock is dropping again in Germany on a U.S. markets holiday.) But under the leadership of Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook, Apple really didn't miss a beat. It introduced new products, hired new executives, managed complicated product offerings, all while Jobs was in various stages of convalescence.
The bigger question by far is what would happen down the road, after whatever plans Jobs has put in place have played out. The outlook here is far less optimistic. "Anyone who thinks Apple can keep chugging along without Steve is deluding themselves," says a former Apple executive who isn't particularly fond of Jobs but nevertheless stands in awe of the CEO's ability to alternately charm and terrorize his minions.
In thinking the unthinkable, let's pause for a moment and explicate Apple's news release today, a classic example of Apple's singular method of communicating with the world.
There had been whispers in the recent weeks that Jobs had gone AWOL, but the holidays are an easy time to mask an executive's absence. Apple succeeded in keeping his latest health ills a secret and then issuing a statement from him that said everything and nothing simultaneously. Consider:
Apple's interim leader, COO Tim Cook
So what happens next? If Jobs returns to work this will be merely another blip for Apple. Assuming the worst, however, the company will glide along for some period of time, and the world will learn just how talented Apple's senior management team is. It's a cohesive group that has been together for years and already responds well to Cook's leadership. (My 2008 profile of Cook, published before the last Jobs leave of absence, details how Cook is the yin to Jobs's yang, a sea of calm next to the tempest of Jobs.)
After that time, however, the deluge. Other than Cook, who so clearly isn't anything like Jobs, what outsider would be so foolish as to accept the jobs of replacing an icon? And what insider could hope to command the respect and fear that Jobs currently does?
Tim Cook's commencement speech may be the most illuminating on the subject of Apple's fortunes moving forward:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEAXuHvzjao
He speaks of intuition and the serendipity of life. Quite a speech and uncharacteristically animated and convincing.
I would say that Apple has and has had for some time a succession plan. True to their nature they don't pre-announce who will succeed SJ, because they want to avoid the relentless analysis and questioning that would ensue.
Apple continually outperforms, but true to the nature of the modern world...journalists and investors are never satisfied.
If I were him, I'd eventually make this LoA permanent, and hand the reins to the most capable person or persons he and his most trusted and capable advisors can find...the sooner the better.
He's given enough to the world, investors and journalists. He's past due the time to devote his remaining years to his family and the quality of his life.
If Apple is a country, Jobs is the dictator. With news of his death the Apple will rot and take many years to recover to any relevance again.
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