Why an ARM May Beat a Fixed-Rate Mortgage Today

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Amy Hoak's Home Economics

Feb. 16, 2011, 10:05 a.m. EST

View all Amy Hoak's Home Economics "º

More people choosing to rent, not buy, their home

Borders' bankruptcy news is no surprise

By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) "” Don't be so sure that a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is the best home loan for your needs. For some borrowers, it may make more sense to consider an adjustable-rate mortgage instead.

Scarred by the housing crisis and fears of ARMs resetting to unaffordable payments, borrowers have been reluctant to assume much risk in their mortgage loans lately, with many of them opting for the predictable 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

For a time, taking that extra security didn't cost much, since the adjustable rates weren't that much lower than the fixed-rate options. But today, the rate spread between the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 5-year ARM has widened to historic levels, some say.

As rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages began increasing in October, "ARMs have not moved nearly as much," said Leif Thomsen, CEO of Mortgage Master Inc., a mortgage lender based in Walpole, Mass.

Assuming a $300,000 loan amount, a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 5.13% means a monthly payment of $1,634, said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates, a publisher of consumer loan information. Interest paid after five years: $74,053.

Compare that to a 5/1 hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage at 3.83%. For the first five years, the monthly payment would be $1,403, and you'd pay $54,771 in interest over those five years, Gumbinger said.

So, for a borrower who plans on moving within five years anyway, they'd save as much as $19,283 by financing with an ARM. For the examples, Gumbinger used HSH's four-day cumulative rate averages from Feb. 7 through 10.

"It's certainly worth saying that many borrowers overpay or overbuy the security that they need," Gumbinger said. But "unless you can say with certainty where you will be in five years, you will have a little level of discomfort about what could occur" if you accept an ARM, he said.

That's because "” in the case of the 5-year ARM "” the rate will reset at month 61, adjusting to market conditions. If, say, that ARM reset three percentage points higher (a hypothetical, since it's unknown by how much it would reset) that would could mean a new monthly payment about $480 higher, Gumbinger said.

But if the savings from taking the 5-year ARM over the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is banked and used for when the rate resets (again assuming that three percentage point hypothetical increase) you'd feel no budgetary stress from the payment increase for about 40 months, he said.

And if your time frame for living in the home is longer than five years but less than seven, you might consider a 7-year ARM, which would also offer savings over a 30-year fixed-rate. There are also 10-year ARMs, but their rates are often close to those on 30-year fixed-rates.

Blame inflation expectations for causing the wide spread between fixed and adjustable rates, said Dan Green, loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage, in Cincinnati.

"In the near term, the markets expect low levels of inflation. But over the medium to long-term, they expect high inflation," he said. From the investor's perspective, rates have to be higher on a 30-year product because the dollars they'll collect at the end of the term will be worth less than those collected at the start, he said.

With an ARM, the rate is fixed for a much shorter amount of time so the initial mortgage rates can be priced lower. Instead of the banks assuming the inflation risk, the borrower does because it's unknown what they'll be paying when the mortgage adjusts at the end of the fixed-rate period.

The bankruptcy filing of Borders Group Inc. is no surprise, as electronic commerce sweeps brick-and-mortar operations away, writes Jon Friedman.

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