Will Cuts Put US In Recession?

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'So be it."

That was House Speaker John Boehner's cold answer when asked Tuesday about job losses that would come from his new Republican majority's plans to cut tens of billions of dollars in government spending this year.

"Do you have any sort of estimate on how many jobs will be lost through this?" Pacifica Radio's Leigh Ann Caldwell inquired at a news conference just before the House began its debate on the cuts.

Boehner stood firm in his polished tassel loafers.

"Since President Obama has taken office the federal government has added 200,000 new federal jobs, and if some of those jobs are lost in this, so be it," he said.

"Do you have any estimate of how many will?" Caldwell pressed. "And won't that negatively impact the economy?"

"I do not," Boehner replied, moving to the next questioner.

Well, Mr. Speaker, I do. I checked with budget expert Scott Lilly of the Center for American Progress, and, using the usual multipliers, he calculated that the cuts — a net of $59 billion in the last half of fiscal 2011 — would lead to the loss of 650,000 government jobs, and the indirect loss of 325,000 more jobs as fewer government workers travel and buy things.

That's nearly 1 million jobs — possibly enough to tip the economy back into recession.

So be it?

Rational Response

Let's assume that Boehner is not as heartless as his words sound. Let's accept that he really believes, as he put it, that "if we reduce spending we'll create a better environment for job creation in America." A more balanced budget would indeed improve the jobs market — in the long run.

But in the short run, the cuts Boehner and his caucus propose would cause a shock to the economy that would slow, if not reverse, the recovery.

And however pure Boehner's motives may be, the dirty truth is that a stall in the recovery would bring political benefits to the Republicans in the 2012 elections. It is in their political interests for unemployment to remain higher for the next two years. "So be it" is callous but rational.

Boehner could dismiss the forecasts of job losses as the work of liberal administration critics. But Boehner himself is well aware that the cuts will lead to more unemployment; that's why he's fighting hard to shield his Ohio constituents.

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Posted By: C400Pilot(865) on 2/17/2011 | 12:00 AM ET

Have deficits pushed us OUT of recession? No, they haven't. Have we really pulled out of a recession? Only if the government spending factors of GDP measurements are large enough to overwhelm the stagnant private sector measures. -- Get a clue, Dana, and wipe that idiotic smug look of your (caption photo) face.

Posted By: rightguy(835) on 2/16/2011 | 11:33 PM ET

The point the big government Dems keep missing is that "government jobs" are NOT real jobs. They create NO wealth, and they strangle the economy by burdening taxpayers and investors. Big government is a stone around our necks, and every government job eliminated is a shot in the arm for our economy. A brief period of discomfort in exchange for a permanent surge in REAL jobs? It sure makes sense to me. I say "whack 'em"....

Posted By: jackndc(55) on 2/16/2011 | 10:48 PM ET

Milbank has as much credibility as a journalist as Teddy Kennedy had as a lifeguard. He is consistent. But consistently wrong on every issue. No wonder the Post is bleeding money with nonsense like this leading the charge for the Dems.

Posted By: Tom in Michigan(6360) on 2/16/2011 | 9:37 PM ET

Whatever my failings our faults, my sins of omission and commission; I can go to my grave knowing I was better than a slavish water-carrier like Dana Milbank and his ilk.

Posted By: Tom in Michigan(6360) on 2/16/2011 | 9:36 PM ET

As private sector unemployment hovers between 9-10% under Obamavik rule-we've lost 8.4 million private sector jobs in the recession-the Federal work force has increased by >500,000. Worse, the number of highly-paid Federalis also increased dramatically-Federal employees making salaries of $100,000 or more jumped from 14% to 19%-even before overtime and bonuses. In the DOT alone, those earning >$170K has increased from ONE! to almost 1,700.

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