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RECENT POSTSCurrent DateTime: 03:48:45 19 Feb 2011LinksList Documentid: 27913298Expiration DateTime: 2/19/2011 3:51:38 AMYour First Move For Tuesday February 22ndDoug Kass: Investors Ignoring Enormity of Brewing CrisisWarren Buffett Stock Picking Secret, Revealed!Web Extra: Brian Kelly's Favorite Solar TradeUpdate: Nasdaq Nears 10-Year Highs, Sign of Top?Fear of 'Catastrophic' Crash Rising Despite Bull MarketFast Money's Line-Up for the Week of Feb 22ndHalftime: A Pro's Guide to Retail Earnings Next WeekFAST MONEY FEATURESFAST MONEY POLLGet in the post game. Respond to our "Question of the Day" right now.TRADE SCHOOLGrab a pencil because school is in session and the Fast Money traders are teaching class.FAST MONEY PODCASTSDownload Fast Money onto your MP3 Player.FAST MONEY WIDGETGrab this all-in-one application and get recaps of the show sent right to your desktop or blog.SHOP FOR FAST MONEY MERCHANDISEGet your game on with Fast Money gear.FAST MONEY PHOTOS!Check out our scrapbook. These "pix" are guaranteed winners.NEWSLETTERSign up and receive a daily email from the Fast Money team!FAST MONEY MOBILE ALERTSGet advanced information about the next Fast Money.setDefault('cnbc_textbody');Fear of 'Catastrophic' Crash Rising Despite Bull MarketPublished:
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In an unprecedented move, the number of investors fearing a catastrophic stock market crash is rising even with the stock market at 2 ½ year highs.
The unusual dislocation comes from two distinct reasons: a lack of trust in the U.S. financial markets following the so-called Flash Crash last May and the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2007.
This means the Flash Crash Advisory Commission that met on Friday has a long way to go in restoring confidence to the point that will bring the individual investor back into a market still ruled by high frequency trading, exchange-traded funds and leveraged hedge funds.
The Yale School of Management since 1989 has asked wealthy individual investors monthly to give the "probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U.S. in the next six months."
In the latest survey in December, almost 75 percent of respondents gave it at least a 10 percent chance of happening. That's up from 68 percent who gave it a 10 percent probability last April, just before the events of May 6, 2010.
"Even though the market is firing on all cylinders, that fear of big losses still looms large for investors in a way that it didn't prior to the last bear market," wrote analysts from Bespoke Investment Group in a report citing the Yale data. "Clearly, the financial crisis and the collapse it caused has impacted investor psyche in a big way."
In the past, fears of a stock market crash in the Yale survey rose as the market declined because investors lost confidence in the economy and companies as share prices declined, and expected a capitulatory end to a bear market. For example, in March 2009 close to 85 percent of investors gave a crash at least a 10 percent chance of occurring. That record high in distrust and low in confidence marked a 12-½ year low in the S&P 500.
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The benchmark has doubled since that low, but investors are not worrying about the prospects for individual stocks as much now now. Instead they are worrying about the still-unchanged system set up by Wall Street and regulators in which equities trade.
The Flash Crash Commission "“ containing members of the CFTC and SEC "“ made a series of recommendations for improving market structure Friday, including single stock circuit breakers, a more reliable audit trail on trades, and curbing the use of cancelled trades by high-frequency traders. They still don't know what actually caused the nearly 1,000-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in a matter of minutes.
Nasdaq Nears 10-Year Highs, Sign of Top?A Pro's Guide to Retail Earnings Next Week
"Nine months after the Flash Crash and the committee is just about getting around to discussing a few things," said Joe Saluzzi, co-founder of Themis Trading and market infrastructure expert. "This is just the way the high-frequency trading community and their supporters like it. Grind that reform train to a halt. After all, the market has come roaring back and if you didn't sell on May 6th, then nobody got hurt."
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