Scott,Great post. The fundamentals for continued economic growth are clearly still present. We will experience corrections/pullbacks in the market prices of securities from time to time but it is still a bull market.
Quite a tour de force by Scott Grannis BTW, plenty of spare capacity in OPEC right now. The oil price has me worried, but I suspect the trend is down from here and for a long time. Demand flatlines at more than $90 a barrel. In fact, global crude oil use has been flat for years, and has been falling in Europe and Japan for decades. Corporate profits are fantastic, given that the recovery has just started. Capital is everywhere and abundant. This can only be good for equities and property. I suspect we see capital gluts again soon.
All very hopeful comments but I suspect we just don't know how the unrest in the Middle East can ultimately affect all of Scott's charts. If Islamists take control in any significant oil producing country, I would say all bets are off. Remember Bin Laden's goal to get oil prices over $200/bbl.
Bill, The goal for every E&P oil driller is $200 a bbl as well. It does not mean it will get there, and or stay there.If you will recall, Brazil, (the Tupi, and later, Lula), will come online with absolute monster pools of new product this year from places that just a few years ago, no one thought would yield product in the first place.
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