Was That As Good As the Market Gets?

Anthony Mirhaydari MSN Money February 23, 2011

2/22/2011 2:38 PM ET

By Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money

Investors and experts are ultrabullish, corporate profits are at historic highs and earnings growth is blazing. But a rising tide of problems suggests things have gone too far. Here's how to protect yourself.

Related topics: Federal Reserve, investing strategy, economy, politics, Anthony Mirhaydari

Investors are feeling pretty good right now. In less than two years, stocks have more than doubled from their 2009 bear-market low. Corporate profits are at record highs. Economic growth is gaining momentum. And most importantly, cash is cheap.

The Federal Reserve's $600 billion "quantitative easing" money-printing operation is pushing investors out of cash and bonds and into stocks. The market's natural undulations and volatility have been washed over by this wave of liquidity.

It is true that all of these are big positives. And they were factors that I cited last year when anticipating a big increase in economic activity and stock prices driven by ultracheap credit, corporate releveraging, export growth and investment spending. So far, all of this has happened.

Are we really still in a bear market?

But now, the inevitable question must be asked: Was that as good as this rally gets?

To be sure, the stock market's on a roll: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) hasn't closed below its 50-day moving average since Sept. 1. That's an unbroken rally of 118 trading days. (View the chart here.)

Since the 1920s, there have been only 10 other such long-lived advances. The last was in early 2007 -- in what proved to be the final months of the previous bull market.

Anthony Mirhaydari

But the hitch in all this (as I noted in "Are investors too bullish?") is that a lot of everyday investors have jumped onto this bandwagon relatively recently. They didn't share in a lot of the rally -- and now they're exposed to a pullback that may have them cursing stocks yet again.

Remember that the market gods take the greatest pleasure in proving conventional wisdom wrong. With investor confidence so high despite new troubles on the horizon. it's hard to make a case for the current rally continuing unencumbered. If so, now's the time for prudent investors to rethink their bullish bets and take a look at neglected stocks in more defensive sectors of the market.

Here's why.

One thing's clear: There aren't a lot of skeptics out there anymore.

Sentiment is very high among both retail investors and professional Wall Street types. The recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch Survey of Fund Managers found that market participants are more bullish toward stocks than at any time in the past decade, with bond allocations and cash weightings extremely low. Further, small investors have ramped up speculative bets to levels that haven't been seen since the final days of the dot-com frenzy in 2000./*

You can see the bull market encouraging a bubble-like mentality. Just look at some of the valuations being received by so-called Web 2.0 upstarts said to be close to initial public offerings. Facebook's valuation is pushing $60 billion, Groupon is pushing $20 billion, and Twitter will be asking for $8 billion or more.

(For some perspective, the first $1 billion-plus incorporation was U.S. Steel (X, news) -- the brainchild of J.P. Morgan that inflated the wealth of men like Andrew Carnegie, captured the popular imagination, employed more than 200,000 and represented a massive consolidation of America's industrial base. Adjusting for inflation, the company's $1.4 billion capitalization in 1901 would be worth just $41 billion today.)

Several new threats have also started to surface.

The political turmoil that pulled down regimes in Tunisia and Egypt has now spread to critical oil producing countries including Libya, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran. Bahrain, also the scene of protests and bloodshed, sits near critical oil shipping routes in the Persian Gulf. Crude is spiking higher as a result --fueling fears of a 1970s-style inflation scenario and knock-on effects on consumer spending and corporate margins as these price pressures move through the supply chain.

As inflation heats up, the Fed's justification for continuing its $600 billion QE2 money-printing operation melts away. Overseas, emerging market economies in places like China and Indonesia are already raising interest rates in an effort to fight inflation driven by rising food and fuel prices. Even Europeans are signaling that rate hikes are on the way by the end of the year -- driving vulnerable Portugal closer to joining Ireland and Greece in the eurozone's bailout club as borrowing costs rise.

I discussed the similarities of the current rise in food prices to the antecedents of terrible inflation of the 1970s in my Feb. 9 column. And now, widespread protests and revolutions from North Africa to the Caspian Sea are bringing back the memories of that decade's Arab oil embargoes and Iranian revolution.

The combination of price spikes in food and fuel prices forced overall "core" inflation higher in the 1970s. We could be in store for a repeat, with the inflation-dampening influence of China declining as its currency strengthens and its material and labor costs rise. If so, interest rates here are headed higher -- much higher. (For more on the topic, see my Dec. 29 column.)

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The only crooks that worst then wall street is congress. And Wall Street own congress!!

4 1ReportSpamRoy Rogers (Joe Consumer) 6 hours agoOil and Gold are two of the most important assets to hold right now and the author does not give them much significance. Sad how Wall Street "analysts" want you to buy into the Bubble Stock market. 2 2ReportSpamhavasu469 hours agoTo be sure, the stock market's on a rollIt would've been better to say "was". All good things come to and end then we start over again. Without downs there can't be ups. 3 3ReportSpamcolorado cowboy9 hours agoYes, way over bought so Wall street raiders can raid it like they always do...401k's sound familiar, pension funds all had billions taken from wall street elite......Time to do it again.. 7 2ReportSpamAdd a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. 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