You sometimes hear the claim that the economy cannot recover before the housing market recovers. I think that’s wrong. Just because real estate led the economy into the recession does not mean it must lead the economy out. Other sectors can accomplish that. It’s more likely that the economy will need to recover — with unemployment falling and income rising — first and then housing will begin a very slow recovery.
Today’s new reports, on jobless claims and new-home sales, illustrate the point. If you look back to 2009 on home sales, you can’t find any sign of a recovery:
With jobless claims — which, of course, we want to be falling — there is some reason for optimism:
E-mail This Print Share Close Linkedin Digg Facebook Mixx My Space Permalink housing, jobless claims, real estate, Unemployment Related Posts From Economix The Banks Run an ExperimentSeattle’s Foreseeable Housing BustHousing-Sector Profitability Returns to Previous Levels Buy vs. Rent: An UpdateA More Nuanced Look at Poverty Numbers Previous Post Putting People Back to Work Next Post An Economix Programming Note NYTD.CRNR.userContent.getUserContent(25,'default'); Search This Blog Search Previous Post Putting People Back to Work Next Post An Economix Programming Note Follow This Blog Twitter RSS Featured Economix Posts Does the U.S. Really Have a Fiscal Crisis? //
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How the Government Dealt With Past RecessionsThree economists explain what worked and what didn't.
Geography of a RecessionA map of unemployment rates across the United States, now through January.
Related Article In order to view this feature, you must download the latest version of flash player here. var so = new SWFObject('http://www.nytimes.com/packages/flash/multimedia/swfs/AS3Multiloader.swf','nytSWF',165,104,9,'#FFFFFF'); so.addParam('allowScriptAccess','always'); so.addParam('allowFullScreen','true'); so.addParam('wmode','opaque'); so.addParam('BASE','http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/flash/us/20090300-economy-user-photos/promos/'); so.addVariable('contentPath','http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/flash/us/20090300-economy-user-photos/promos/163quilty.swf'); so.addVariable('allowCaching',true); so.write('embed443'); #embed443{visibility:visible !important;}Faces, numbers and stories from behind the downturn.
Special Features The Debt TrapA series about the surge in consumer debt and the lenders who made it possible.
The ReckoningA series exploring the origins of the financial crisis, from Washington to Wall Street.
Blogroll Blogroll Barking Up the Wrong Tree Brad DeLong Cafe Hayek Calculated Risk Capital Gains and Games Dani Rodrik's Weblog DataPoints: The Dismal Scientist Blog Econbrowser EconLog Economist's View Greg Mankiw Marginal Revolution Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor Nudge Raghu Rajan Robert Reich Tax.com TaxProf TaxVox The Baseline Scenario The Becker-Posner Blog The Big Picture Will Wilkinson: The Fly Bottle Blogs From Newspapers and Magazines Andrew Sullivan Ezra Klein Felix Salmon Floyd Norris Freakonomics Free exchange (The Economist) James Surowiecki Megan McArdle Money-Supply (Financial Times) Paul Krugman Real Time Economics (WSJ) Wolf Forum (Financial Times) Economic Resources Employment Statistics GeoFRED: Geographic Federal Reserve Data Historical Data on Job Growth and Wages Historical Unemployment Data Inflation Calculator Interactive Housing Calculator International G.D.P. Rankings Latest Job Market Data Local Gas Prices Statistics on Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the U.S. U.S. G.D.P. Statistics Tag List DAILY ECONOMIST 561 UNEMPLOYMENT 274 TAXES 273 HEALTH CARE 226 EMPLOYMENT 147 EDWARD L. GLAESER 133 HOUSING 131 UWE E. REINHARDT 129 STIMULUS 126 CASEY B. MULLIGAN 117 HEALTH INSURANCE 115 JOBS REPORT 112 JOBS 110 SIMON JOHNSON 108 WOMEN IN THE WORKFORCE 102 NANCY FOLBRE 99 CHINA 94 RECESSION 91 BUDGET DEFICIT 88 U.S. HEALTH CARE COSTS 86 EDUCATION 85 FEDERAL RESERVE 84 HIGHER EDUCATION 79 FINANCIAL CRISIS 75 GREAT RECESSION 71 BAILOUT 67 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS 67 BANKS 67 MAP 66 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 64 Archive Select Month February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 Follow The New York Times »FacebookTwitterYouTubeRSS Home World U.S. N.Y. / Region Business Technology Science Health Sports Opinion Arts Style Travel Jobs Real Estate Autos Back to Top © 2011 The New York Times Company Privacy Your Ad Choices Terms of Service Corrections RSS First Look Help Contact Us Work for Us Advertise Site Map function apture_onload() { apture.addCallback(apture.WINDOW_OPEN, function() { dcsMultiTrack('DCS.dcssip','www.nytimes.com','DCS.dcsuri','/blogs/Apture.html','WT.ti','Apture','WT.z_dcsm','1'); }); } if (typeof NYTD.Blogs.user != 'undefined') { if(NYTD.Blogs.user.isLoggedIn()) { var dcsvid=NYTD.Blogs.user.getId(); var regstatus="registered"; } else { var dcsvid=""; var regstatus="non-registered"; } } var gaJsHost = (("https:" == document.location.protocol) ? "https://ssl." : "http://www."); document.write(unescape("%3Cscript src='" + gaJsHost + "google-analytics.com/ga.js' type='text/javascript'%3E%3C/script%3E")); var pageTracker = _gat._getTracker("UA-4406282-67"); pageTracker._initData(); pageTracker._trackPageview(); document.write('');Apture allows readers to dig deeper into a subject without ever leaving the blog post. When you click on any link marked by the icons , , or , you will be able to view video, reference materials, images and other related media. Please e-mail your feedback and thoughts on this feature to apture@nyt.com.
An accounting of the government’s rescue package.
Three economists explain what worked and what didn't.
A map of unemployment rates across the United States, now through January.
Faces, numbers and stories from behind the downturn.
A series about the surge in consumer debt and the lenders who made it possible.
A series exploring the origins of the financial crisis, from Washington to Wall Street.
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