America's financial future is bright and tempting investments abound -- so long as you have enough money to bypass standard fare like stocks and bonds in favor of private deals. Warren Buffett didn't write that in his yearly letter to Berkshire Hathaway ( BRK.A ) shareholders, released Saturday, but he might as well have.
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Of 27 pages including attachments, Buffett spends only about four paragraphs on ordinary stocks. To sum up: He's eager for Wells Fargo ( WFC ) to resume its dividend payments and is confident that Coca Cola ( KO ) will continue to increase its dividends.
Much of the rest of the letter discusses the billions of dollars Berkshire is investing in railroad and power infrastructure; how well-run insurers get free use of customer cash; and how Wall Street's short-sighted focus on stock earnings hinders company performance, whereas private companies are free to prosper.
There's plenty of charm and wit, too. One section recounts why a janitor deserves part of the credit for the billions Berkshire has made on its Geico investment. Another tells how the market downturn of 2009 was, for one unnamed investor, worse than divorce: "I've lost half my net worth--and I still have my wife."
However, regular Joes and Sallies are left wondering if the Omaha value sage sees few good deals in the stocks they can buy. The two stocks he gushes over in his letter--preferred issues from General Electric ( GE ) and Goldman Sachs ( GS ) --were privately negotiated deals that gave Berkshire double-digit dividend yields in addition to upside price exposure. Buffett laments that they'll likely being bought back soon by the issuers (but at a generous premium, per terms of the deal).
Last quarter Berkshire added money to one stock--Wells Fargo. It sold six, ending the quarter with 25 stocks worth just over $52 billion. Accountants valued the company's assets at $157 billion at the end of 2010. Investors valued Berkshire at $216 billion Monday, based on its stock price.
Of course, early last year Berkshire made its largest stock purchase to date, spending more than $26 billion on railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe . In doing so, however, it went from being a passive shareholder to a full owner, capturing all of the company's cash flow and opening further investment opportunities in rail upgrades. Last year Berkshire spent $6 billion on such capital improvements and this year it plans to spend $8 billion. That makes the Berkshire purchase look less like a stock market endorsement than a means of escaping the stock market's constraints.
Also, 40% of the deal was financed with Berkshire stock, suggesting Buffett sees his own shares as no bargain. "The bountiful years, we want to emphasize, will never return," writes Buffett in his letter. "The huge sums of capital we currently manage eliminate any chance of exceptional performance."
Berkshire held more than $38 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of 2010. "Our elephant gun has been reloaded, and my trigger finger is itchy," wrote Buffett in his letter. Berkshire's policy is to hold at least $10 billion in cash to cover insurance losses and its custom is to keep another $10 billion ready for investment opportunities. That leaves $18 billion. Putting that kind of money to work in the stock market would be cumbersome, but more than a dozen mutual funds manage to do it.
The takeaway for ordinary investors isn't that Buffett thinks shares will plunge. Indeed, he has bet otherwise in his derivatives dealings. It's that, not two years after a financial crisis and market meltdown, off-the-rack investments like stocks and bonds have already rocketed back and now look fully priced once again judging by measures like earnings and yields. There's still plenty of money to be made by private business owners and financiers, but even the world's best stock-picker seems to have lost interest in playing the market.
Jack Hough is an associate editor at SmartMoney.com and author of "Your Next Great Stock."
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