Mea Culpa: I Was Way Too Cautious

This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on March 2 at 7:01 a.m. EST.

I am going to make today's opening missive brief, but my message is significant. The reality is that over the past 12 months I have been far too cautious and dogmatic in my ursine outlook. I moved too far off the reservation and stuck to my views even as cyclical economic conditions changed. (One doesn't have to look much beyond the ISM strength to support the statement that domestic growth has improved markedly.) In support of my bearish investment view, I offered what I thought were a series of logical arguments on why my secular concerns would produce nontraditional challenges to the notion of a smooth and self-sustaining economic recovery that was the foundation of the bullish cabal's baseline case. The fact is, the cyclical recovery in corporate profits has been so strong as to offset some of my concerns. I am not a perma-bear -- I am in this game to make money for my investors and for RealMoolah's subscribers. Nevertheless, my musings over the past year might have led subscribers to conclude that I am indeed a perma-bear. Nor am I bullish. Those nontraditional headwinds, frequently discussed on The Edge, are ever-present and are value-destructive and must be monitored closely as to their effect on the cyclical recovery. Moreover, I remain of the view that some portion of the recovery in the economy, in general, and in personal consumption expenditures, in specific, relates to "recession fatigue." It is important to recognize that numerous sectors in the economy are still operating well below long-term trend lines, and that, in all likelihood, this setup will support some further aggregate growth in the months ahead, even though the nontraditional threats remain a cloud over intermediate-term growth. 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