Bull Market's 3rd Year Could Lose Fizz

Jonathan Burton MarketWatch March 9, 2011

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Jonathan Burton's Life Savings

March 9, 2011, 3:46 a.m. EST

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Stock investors meet Ferdinand the bull

First Take "º

NPR's Vivian Schiller is getting a raw deal

By Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) "” The bull market is celebrating its second anniversary, and while the honeymoon may not be over for U.S. stock investors, the champagne could lose some of its fizz.

The bull market's third year differs significantly from the first two, both in temperament and magnitude. Typically, large-cap stocks take leadership from small-caps and midcaps, and the gains are more muted.

Financial advisers share lessons they learned from the March 2009 market low and offer predictions for the rest of 2011.

"Things get more challenging," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's Equity Research.

"The first two years all sectors typically advance," Stovall added. "Cyclical stocks do better than defensives and it's a nice party."

But in the bull's third year, he said, "the dynamics of the market change. Investors are less willing to throw caution to the wind."

Clearly, risk-taking has been amply rewarded since the March 9, 2009, low. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX 1,320, -1.95, -0.15%) is up 95% over that time; the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (DJIA 12,221, +6.28, +0.05%) is 87% higher.

But retail investors have enjoyed little of it. In fact they were big sellers of U.S. stock mutual funds throughout most of 2009 and 2010. Now individuals are putting money into stock funds again, unlatching from the relative safety of bonds "” but only since late December.

/quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x SPX 1,320, -1.95, -0.15% /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed DJIA 12,221, +6.28, +0.05% The U.S. market rebounds from its March 2009 bottom.

Money has cascaded into U.S. stock funds so far this year at a brisk pace not seen since April and May of 2009, according to the Investment Company Institute, a fund-industry trade group. It would appear that having sat out the first 100% of market return, many retail investors "” and more than a few fund managers "” may be afraid of missing this next leg of the bull run.

Indeed, two of every three U.S. stock fund managers that attempt to top the S&P 500 fell short in the past year, while three of every four midcap-stock funds failed against their benchmark, according to Standard & Poor's.

"We remain concerned that too many investors are chasing stocks higher for the sake of performance," Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, noted in a recent report to clients. Read more: Investor lessons as bull market turns two.

"Stocks lead the economy," Belski added. "Unless economic and employment growth substantially improve over the next few months, we believe there is a very good chance that stocks have already priced in the majority of the economy's recovery."

Investor sentiment has waned in the wake of recent unrest in the Mideast and North Africa, and amid soaring oil prices, but is still squarely in the bullish camp.

"There's extreme optimism," said Ed Clissold, senior global analyst at Ned Davis Research. "That is a warning sign, but optimism can stay at elevated levels for a while." Read more: Bull-market birthday is no reason to celebrate.

Page 1Page 2 Add Comment › · Recommend (2) · Post: Alert Email Print More Jonathan Burton's Life Savings Jan. 27, 2011 Stock investors meet Ferdinand the bull Jan. 5, 2011 ETF investors win as fund firms fight to cut fees Dec. 7, 2010 Three ugly fund types have handsome future Nov. 16, 2010 5 ways financial advisers fail investors Nov. 5, 2010 Small investors catch Wall Street's big wave Explore related topics Gas/Utilities Computer Hardware S&P 500 Index Dow Jones Industrial Average DirecTv Exxon Mobil Corp Comments Screener About Jonathan Burton

Jonathan Burton is the investing editor for MarketWatch and covers investing strategies and mutual fund-related news from San Francisco. He also writes the "Life Savings" column. Previously he held contributing editor positions at Bloomberg Personal Finance, Mutual Funds and Individual Investor magazines, and was a reporter with the Far Eastern Economic Review and Investor's Business Daily. He is also the author of two books on investing.

First Take NPR's Vivian Schiller is getting a raw deal

Despite Vivian Schiller's shortcomings, she was good for NPR, writes Jon Friedman.

10:46 a.m. Today10:46 a.m. March 9, 2011

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Investor sentiment has waned in the wake of recent unrest in the Mideast and North Africa, and amid soaring oil prices, but is still squarely in the bullish camp.

Despite Vivian Schiller's shortcomings, she was good for NPR, writes Jon Friedman.

10:46 a.m. Today10:46 a.m. March 9, 2011

"How to make #money in the third year of the #bull market for U.S. #stocks: http://bit.ly/h5XOLn" 11:15 a.m. EST, March 9, 2011 from MKTWBurton

"How to make money in the bull market's third year http://bit.ly/dKt23K" 3:56 a.m. EST, March 9, 2011 from MKTWBurton

"#Bull #market's second anniversary: #Small-caps have ruled: http://bit.ly/gTTUat" 1:37 a.m. EST, March 9, 2011 from MKTWBurton

"Bargains for #stock #investors: http://bit.ly/dSznQ4" 1:35 a.m. EST, March 9, 2011 from MKTWBurton

"#Gold #investors: Time to take your #profits: http://bit.ly/gC77IV" 1:34 a.m. EST, March 9, 2011 from MKTWBurton

Jonathan Burton

Life Savings

How to make money in the bull's third year

Lisa Twaronite

This Week in Japan

The risk of the Bank of Japan's ETF buys

Rex Nutting

Money and Power

We should slash welfare for the wealthy

Jennifer Waters

Consumer Confidential

High gas prices force consumer cutbacks

David Callaway

Editor's View

Investor lessons as bull market turns two

Robert Powell

On Retirement

Gold investors: Time to take your profits

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Bull Market's 3rd Year Could Lose Fizz

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