Nuclear Winter for the Nuclear Industry?

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MarketWatch First Take

March 14, 2011, 1:11 p.m. EDT

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Lessons from Japan's other quake

Network stars should stay out of Japan

By MarketWatch

LONDON (MarketWatch) "” Of course it's not Chernobyl. It just looks like it, and that's enough.

Reuters A technician of the Regional Service of Image Treatment and Remote Sensing near Strasbourg points at a satellite image of the Fukushima-Daini power plant in Japan.

While nuclear-power experts seek to reassure a shattered nation "” and the rest of the world "” that the explosions at the Fukushima Daiichi power station have released only tiny amounts of radioactivity, their comments are muted by the startling images of the plants blowing apart.

On the nuclear industry's own disaster scale of 1 to 7, where Chernobyl was a 7 and Three Mile Island a 5, the initial Fukushima blast ranked a mere 4. That, they say, should reassure us. But tell that to the skeptics, especially those in Europe.

In Germany, for example, where there has always been strong antinuclear sentiment, the issue is poised to erupt again in local elections with a force not seen in years. And it could pose a significant threat to Chancellor Angela Merkel's political future.

Meanwhile, in Britain, where nuclear power has been laboriously rehabilitated as a way to combat global warming, talk of adding reactors to the grid now faces tough new scrutiny at the highest political level.

While Japanese authorities scramble to measure how much radiation has actually escaped from the plants, the fallout is easier to measure in the stock market. Shares of companies with heavy exposure to the nuclear-power industry were reeling Monday, with much of the money jumping straight into alternative-energy stocks. European Stocks to Watch: Nuclear, energy stocks in focus after Japan quake.

This all makes perfect short-term sense. The market is playing on people's emotions. For the longer term, the picture is much murkier. Solar panels simply cannot compensate for the megawatts lost at Fukushima without blanketing much of the Japanese countryside. And there's still a strong argument to be made for nuclear as an effective weapon against climate change if, indeed, that remains a priority.

But no one can deny that this is a major setback for the future of nuclear power.

The partial reactor-core meltdown at Three Mile Island in 1979 practically killed the industry in the United States. After the 1986 Chernobyl accident, it took a couple of decades without a single serious mishap before anyone dared engage in a serious public discussion of nuclear power.

This latest news from Japan is nothing less than the next generation's Chernobyl. It might not be as bad as what happened that April day in Ukraine, but Fukushima Daiichi has clearly reignited public suspicion that this is a dangerous business while accelerating sympathy for alternative energy. And those same sentiments are most certainly guiding investors and policy makers.

"” Jim Jelter

Broadcasters are sending their stars to the scene of the disaster, but viewers would be better off hearing from real experts, writes Jon Friedman.

47 min ago1:57 p.m. March 14, 2011

"Japanese auto stocks extend losses http://bit.ly/h54SOc" 1:23 p.m. EDT, March 14, 2011 from MarketWatch

"Stocks slide as #GE, utilities hit by nuclear doubts http://bit.ly/g4YLjr" 12:24 p.m. EDT, March 14, 2011 from MarketWatch

"Nuclear winter? #Japan shakes decades of work rebuilding an industry http://bit.ly/fmEQHn" 11:58 a.m. EDT, March 14, 2011 from MarketWatch

"$AAPL gets lift from iPad 2 sales reports http://stk.ly/egMFa5" 11:35 a.m. EDT, March 14, 2011 from MarketWatch

"#Berkshire Hathaway to buy #Lubrizol http://bit.ly/fEIvIP" 11:11 a.m. EDT, March 14, 2011 from MarketWatch

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