What's Next for Commodities After Japan?

Myra Saefong MarketWatch March 19, 2011

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Commodities Corner

March 18, 2011, 4:06 a.m. EDT

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By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) "” With Japan suffering from multiple disasters "” earthquakes, a tsunami and nuclear crisis "” it's no wonder commodity prices almost across the board have seen significant declines on bets that demand for resources from the world's third-largest economy will slow.

But as the Land of the Rising Sun's calm and determined citizens work to rebuild their nation, opportunities in the commodities space are far from over.

"As always, there are opportunities in crisis," said Chris Mayer, editor of Agora Financial's Capital & Crisis.

Energy, metals and agricultural sectors have all taken a hit since the 9.0 magnitude earthquake shook northern Japan, causing a massive tsunami that killed thousands and setting into motion what's been called the worst nuclear disaster since the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear plant explosion in the former Soviet Union.

As of Wednesday, traders have seen oil prices lose nearly 5% since March 10, the last trading day before the disaster; gold prices have fallen more than 1%, corn lost nearly 10%, and platinum's down about 4%. But natural gas has gained almost 3%.

"The whole earthquake/tsunami/radiation leak is a big, unexpected event with large, potential consequences that are not yet known," said Todd Hultman, editor of DailyFutures.com.

"It has created a big jolt of anxiety that has investors and fund managers bailing out of investment positions and running for cash," he said. "In these panics, even good investments get tossed aside."

"If the radiation risk does not get worse in northern Japan, we should see a rebound in corn, soybeans, cattle, crude oil, copper and possibly lumber prices," said Hultman. "These are all commodities with relatively tight supplies in relation to "?normal' demand."

Other commodity market watchers say natural gas, coal, steel and gold will also bounce back.

"A crisis can offer opportunities to selectively add to positions where value can be identified and where the short-term market reaction does not seem to match the actual fundamentals and medium- to longer-term outlook," Martin Hennecke, associate director at Tyche Group told clients.

For uranium, that boat has sailed "” at least for now.

Japan's disaster was a "debacle for uranium," said Christopher Ecclestone, a mining strategist at Hallgarten & Company LLC. "It has maybe set back nuclear plants in the West by 15-20 years."

The UxC daily uranium broker average price, the average midpoint of the three main uranium brokerages, was at $49.25 on March 16, down from $55 a day earlier, data from nuclear-fuel consultancy Ux Consulting Co. show. See the UxC weekly spot uranium prices.

Uranium prices are expected to plunge by 26% over the coming months, said John Longo, professor of finance at Rutgers Business School in Newark. "Needless to say, uranium producers will feel the burn."

Shares in Cameco Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!ccj/quotes/nls/ccj (CCJ 29.40, +1.30, +4.63%) , which accounts for about 16% of the world's uranium output, have dropped more than 20% since Japan's mega earthquake.

/quotes/comstock/13*!ccj/quotes/nls/ccj CCJ 29.40, +1.30, +4.63%

While longer term, looking out five years or more, the case for nuclear power is "compelling" and the case for uranium even more so, said Mayer, "the sector is dead money for 2011." Read more commodity analysis from Mayer.

Uranium spot prices had reached an all-time high of $136 at the end of June 2007, according to Ux Consulting.

"Japan utilizes over 10% of the world's uranium "” obviously that figure will decline in the wake of disabled power plants and the widespread fear of health concerns," said Longo.

Uranium demand around the world may also decline. The Chinese government has suspended approval of new nuclear power plants, Spain has ordered a review of its nuclear power plants, and Germany placed a three-month ban on operations at several of its oldest reactors, according to news reports.

"The type of light-water reactor that is in trouble in Japan is very common," said Sean Brodrick, a natural resources analyst for Weiss Research, pointing out that there are such 23 reactors in the U.S. A light-water reactor uses normal water as a coolant.

Page 1Page 2 Add Comment › · Recommend (5) · Post: Alert Email Print More Commodities Corner March 11, 2011 Consumers play blame game as gasoline nears $4 March 4, 2011 $100 oil: Here to stay or soon to go? Feb. 18, 2011 Silver's still looking good Feb. 11, 2011 Corn's rally feeds a "?global food fight' Feb. 4, 2011 The battle of "?copper versus wheat' Explore related topics Gas/Utilities Household Products Asia Pacific Cameco Corporation International Coal Group Inc Universal Forest Products Inc Comments Screener About Myra Saefong

Myra P. Saefong is our assistant global markets editor based in Tokyo. She has been with MarketWatch since 1998 and holds a master's degree in English literature.

First Take No-fly zone pins down Gadhafi's crude

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"What's next for commodities with Japan in crisis http://on.mktw.net/hodIOy" 11:42 p.m. EDT, March 17, 2011 from MktwSaefong

"U.S. dollar buys as little as 79.73 #yen, a new low. Global Hunter Securities strategist predicts 77 yen. http://bit.ly/gwkqAr" 3:53 p.m. EDT, March 16, 2011 from MktwSaefong

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Uranium spot prices had reached an all-time high of $136 at the end of June 2007, according to Ux Consulting.

"Japan utilizes over 10% of the world's uranium "” obviously that figure will decline in the wake of disabled power plants and the widespread fear of health concerns," said Longo.

Myra P. Saefong is our assistant global markets editor based in Tokyo. She has been with MarketWatch since 1998 and holds a master's degree in English literature.

Foreign oil companies find themselves caught between the threat of trade sanctions or expulsion from Libya.

3:21 p.m. March 18, 2011

"What's next for commodities with Japan in crisis http://on.mktw.net/hodIOy" 11:42 p.m. EDT, March 17, 2011 from MktwSaefong

"U.S. dollar buys as little as 79.73 #yen, a new low. Global Hunter Securities strategist predicts 77 yen. http://bit.ly/gwkqAr" 3:53 p.m. EDT, March 16, 2011 from MktwSaefong

"#Yen nears all-time high vs. the U.S. #dollar. Dollar buys as little as 79.81 yen Wednesday vs. 79.75 yen in 1995." 2:28 p.m. EDT, March 16, 2011 from MktwSaefong

"The U.S. #dollar and #yen are higher against the #euro as worry over #Japan's nuclear emergency intensifies. http://bit.ly/gwkqAr" 11:29 a.m. EDT, March 16, 2011 from MktwSaefong

"What's an investor in the #nuclear space to do? http://bit.ly/fdDJs8" 5:36 p.m. EDT, March 14, 2011 from MktwSaefong

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What's Next for Commodities After Japan?

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