The Corporate Savings Glut

Rebecca Wilder Angry Bear March 22, 2011

Mark Thoma rightly points out the hypocrisy of the deficit hawks' intent to cut spending while approving military spending in the same sentence. Ryan Avent furthers the dicussion by stating that Washington has used the 'dire fiscal' rhetoric to sell short-term cuts that were unwarranted, given that the fiscal problems are structural in nature.Me, I'd argue that the fiscal deficit is simply the consequence of corporate America's excess saving: the corporate saving glut - no I didn't mean the 'global saving glut'. Furthermore, the corporate saving glut is manifesting itself into the labor market, creating high and persistent unemployment. Some economists are wrongly referring to this as higher structural unemployment.Exhibit 1: The 3-sector financial balance model demonstrates that elevated excess private saving (firms and households) keeps the government deficit in the red. For a discussion of the 3-sector financial balances, see Scott Fullwiler and Rob Parenteau; and I've written on this as well.The excess saving rate for the public sector, external sector, and household sector is constructed using the Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds accounts as: (Gross Saving - Gross Investment)/GDP. The excess corporate saving rate is the residual of the Current Account (external saving) net of government and household excess saving. If the corporate excess saving rate is positive, then investment spending falls short of asset purchases (financial or tangible). * In Q4 2010, the household excess saving rate dropped to +3.5% of GDP* In Q4 2010, the government excess saving rate dropped to -10.4% of GDP* In Q4 2010, the current account deficit dropped to -3% of GDP* In Q4 2010, the corporate excess saving rate jumped to 3.9% of GDP - this is the Corporate Saving Glut because while firms are investing, they're saving more, thereby breaking the positive feedback loop.The positive feedback loop remains broken: higher demand increases sales rates, revenues and production which grows firm profits that are translated into wage and income gains, only to drive demand further upward. It's broken right between 'grows firm profits' and 'translated into wage and income gains'.The funny thing is, too, that economists sell this broken feedback loop as rising structural unemployment. Actually, unemployment is not structurally higher, it's that when firms do not reinvest corporate profits, the lack of income flow manifests itself into the unemployment rate.Exhibits 2 and 3. It's not structural unemployment, it's the corporate saving glut!The chart below illustrates a simple univariate regression of the unemployment rate on the corporate saving glut. The correlation is very strong, 71%, and suggests that the structural unemployment rate is less than 5.8%. Furthermore, while the unemployment rate seems to be perpetually higher than normal (the upper-right circle), that perfectly coincides with a high corporate saving glut.If the corporate excess saving glut just equaled zero, i.e., firms invested and saved at the same rate, the unemployment rate would be 5.8%. Now, if the corporate saving glut fell below zero to -2%, i.e., firms reinvested in the economy by way of capital investment in excess of saving, the simple model implies an unemployment rate of 4.7%.The government doesn't need to add jobs, per se, the government needs to figure out how to get corporate America to drop the saving glut and re-invest in the economy.Rebecca Wilder

"The government doesn't need to add jobs, per se, the government needs to figure out how to get corporate America to drop the saving glut and re-invest in the economy."How Excellent! So Simple!So, all we do is reduce the taxation on the returns from investing capital, meaning that we've increased the incentive to invest, not hoard, said capital, and everything will be fine!So 'Becca, you will indeed be fighting in the streets for a reduction in corporate and dividend taxation then, yes? I look forward to this quite as much as you do.

Many thanks, Rebecca. :)Especially for the chart showing the correlation between corporate saving and unemployment. A couple of nits about the other chart.First, GDP has not been all that steady in recent years, so apparent movement can be distorted, as the movement of the GDP denominator is hidden.Second, the chart obscures an important relationship:"* In Q4 2010, the household excess saving rate dropped to +3.5% of GDP* In Q4 2010, the government excess saving rate dropped to -10.4% of GDP* In Q4 2010, the current account deficit dropped to -3% of GDP* In Q4 2010, the corporate excess saving rate jumped to 3.9% of GDP"You have three savings and one deficit. That obscures the fact that the savings sum to zero. (3.9 + 3.5 - 10.4 + 3.0 = 0.) Better to show the current account surplus than the deficit. No?

"So, all we do is reduce the taxation on the returns from investing capital, meaning that we've increased the incentive to invest, not hoard, said capital, and everything will be fine!"Does not follow. Why invest in something if there are no customers?Not that I am recommending it, but right now it would make more sense to tax away the excess corporate savings and give it to people who will spend it.

I see the label is "current account". "Negative of the current account" sounds awkward, though.

Min, Yes the same equation has many faces. Yours is definitely easier to visualize, and usually the way that the 3-sector financial balances model is presented. But you say "to show the current account surplus than the deficit" it's not a surplus, per se. I make this very important distinction because part of the reason that some of the other balances are in deficit is because we do run current account deficits. They can't all be in surplus. But the identity is just a rearrangement of the following uses equals spending identity: C + S + T = GDP = C + I + G + (X – M) where X-M approximates the CA deficit for the US (X-M < 0), so (S-T) + (T-G) = CA, where (CA<0 deficit and CA>0 surplus) (S-T) + (T-G) - (X-M) = 0

But Tim that corporate hoard of cash is in large measure the result of very limited taxation. Doesn't it then stand to reason that further reductions in corporate taxes would lead to a yet greater hoard of cash. Besides, don't most corporations operate in accordance with the free market concept of investing returns in the most profitable and productive manner rather then based on exogenous considerations such as taxes? On top of which, if they're not paying taxes now why would any additional reduc tions in taxes make any difference to their decision making process?

Macro is music to my ears...thanks for staying on topic Min.

It does not follow Tim...an ironic statement is not macro. thanks Min.

"But you say "to show the current account surplus than the deficit"Thanks, Rebecca. :)I realized later that "Negative of the current account" is "Current account deficit". I. e., a positive number for the current account deficit is the same as a negative number for the current account. :)Why the Federal Reserve would put out a graph that obscures the relationship between the variables in the graph is beyond me. <shrug></shrug>

"Besides, don't most corporations operate in accordance with the free market concept of investing returns in the most profitable and productive manner rather then based on exogenous considerations such as taxes?"Anyone who has had a college level intro to finance class knows that you use AFTER TAX cash flows in DCF analysis.

Company A has a project to invest $1 billion today that will return $0.3 billion (pre tax) each year for the next 5 years. The firm's WACC is 10%. Under the current tax regime, the project will increase tax liabilities by $0.04 billion each year. With a lower tax rate the project will increase tax liabilities by $0.03 billion each year. The terminal value of the project is $0.Which tax regimes do you invest in this project?

And anyone actually investing in business enterprise would know that effective tax rates are subject to change with little notice. The profitability of an enterprise is likely to be calculated on a long term basis which cannot rely on a potentially fluctuating tax rate to decide the value of the investment. Otherwise, put your money into triple munis. The fact remains that reducing taxes to induce investment is self defeating unless there is an intention to eliminate all business taxes by means of a Constitutional amendment. Better to tax capital accumulation if you want to encourage better use of cash by business entities.BTW, was it college level intro to finance that encouraged the development of arcane derivatives based on sub-prime mortgages? Or was that taught at the graduate level in advanced financial manipulation? The economy is still reeling from the results of all the knowledge dispersed in those college level finance classes.

My contention is that corporations have permanently increased their cash reserves, because the old meme about being able to borrow when you needed to was proven not to hold in late 2008 (and to some extent earlier). The goal appears to be to be able if necessary to go some extended period with no borrowing, just in case the capital markets (commercial paper in particular) freeze up again. If you know that it could take 2 months to sell commercial paper in a frozen market then it makes sense to keep 2 more months of reserve just in case it happens again. Yes you won't get much roi on the cash, but conversly if the markets freeze up you won't have to file chapter 11 if you can't borrow what you need to stay solvent.In one sense then its a return to the older way of doing business since the go-go version of the market of minimal cash was proven be potentially unstable.

Well, maybe they're saving cash for M&A. Like ATT. Maybe they'll increase dividend payouts to investors on a regular basis or a one-time deal. Companies just finished letting folks go after the last recession. They are probably reluctant to add resources until there is more demand for their goods and services. There isn't much wage pressure due to the higher unemployment rate.

So Tim Worstall is saying we should start to tax corporate savings more (increase the undistributed corporate income tax)? Or did I understand that wrong?

A lot of potential corporate expenditures - on labor-saving automation, executive compensation, dividends, relocating facilities overseas - would be macro-losers. If you consider the rational response of individual companies and the capital-management decision-makers to a demand-constrained economy, isn't that how you'd respond to any penalization of retained corporate cash?

Why is there a corporate savings glut? The risk premium for expansion increases as demand drops. As demand returns, the risk premium for expansion and investment drops.Companies need to time their production to meet demand. They need to keep cash so they can time their expansion.This dynamic creates spirals. As demand decreases, risk premiums increase. As risk premiums increase, investment drops. The drop investment further decreases demand. Companies end up sitting on cash because there are no investments with a low enough risk premium compared to anticipated future investments.The spiral reverses only with sufficient demand. Insufficient demand can be met with current capacity and does not change the risk premium. It is only once demand crosses a threshold that risk premium begins to moderate. The key to recovery is to increase demand enough to require capacity increase, lowering the risk premium for expansion, thereby increasing investment that leads to increasing demand and reversing the spiral.

Accelerated depreciation of capital is a form of a tax break (just trust me on this one because it is probably too wonkish for you). See what happened...http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/nipa_underlying/TableView.asp?SelectedTable=33&ViewSeries=NO&Java=no&Request3Place=N&3Place=N&FromView=YES&Freq=Qtr&FirstYear=2007&LastYear=2010&3Place=N&Update=Update&JavaBox=no#MidAs for subprime mortgages, I know dumbocrats faithfully believe that the government should do all due diligence for us but the rest of the world recognizes that investors bought MBS securities that were fair value if and only if home prices continued to rise from 2005 levels. You can't trade on Moody's Aaa rating without actually reading the underlying assumptions. And if you know how to operate a Bloomberg terminal you could have found all the financial characteristics of an MBS pool necessary to throw up the red flags if you did your homework.

"Or was that taught at the graduate level in advanced financial manipulation?"For the record, if home prices had continued to rise from 2005 to 2010 do you believe that RMBS returns would have reflected a Aaa rating or a Baa rating? It is not manipulation when the faulty underlying assumption was disclosed to investors. Just lazy investors.

RweTHEREyet: "Deficit-spending (or quantitative-easing) is a tax increase, as surely as credit card purchases are real spending."As far as deficits are concerned, spending is equivalent to tax cuts. Whether they will lead to future tax increases is a question. That they will is plausible, but the historical record does not provide much support for that. Look at the failure of the current Congress, abetted by the President, to increase taxes. This at a time when both agree on reducing the deficit. If they don't raise taxes when they say they want to reduce the deficit, when will they? (Not that I think that they should have raised taxes.)RweTHEREyet: "Whatever it is that they could do with confiscated, corporate cash, they can do too, via deficit-spending -and we see how well that worked in a dollar-per-benifit outcome.. ala stimulus- .."Yes, we can see how well that worked out. Sorry, I do not have the stats at hand, but as I recall, the most effective gov't spending (or maybe it was number 2), which produced the most bang for the buck, was unemployment insurance, one of the automatic stabilizers already in place, not the stimulus. The stimulus could have put more money in the hands of people who would spend it. That would have been more effective.And you are right, the Federal gov't can spend without taxing corporate savings. :)

Or when you cite manipulation maybe you mean this..."BasePoint Analytics LLC, a recognized fraud analytics andconsulting firm, analyzed over 3 million loans originated between 1997and 2006 (the majority being 2005–2006 vintage), including 16,000examples of non-performing loans that had evidence of fraudulentmisrepresentation in the original applications. Their research found thatas much as 70% of early payment default loans contained fraudmisrepresentations on the application."http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/News/InternalResource/58467_TheImpactofPoorUnderwritingPracticesandFraudinSubprimeRMBSPerformance.pdf

RweTHEREyet: "And never forget (plenty of historical proof), that when you let the entire tax burden hover near the top of the Laffer Curve; tax cuts will result in revenue INcreases."And how does that happen? Deficits stimulate the economy. :)

Actually, dividend payments would be macro-gainers. It would be a transfer of wealth back to the shareholder (the consumer in aggregate).

bakho,The problem is that the household burden to increase demand has risen as corporations keep employment low, don't expand business, refinance at record low rates, and add back temporary workers and (some) hours in lieu of secure jobs.As you see in the first chart, the household excess saving has been declining. Is that what fiscal and monetary policy should be pushing? Households to lever up again, only to see financial asset prices crash again? I think not.Big tax breaks on all sides would get this economy going...Short-term expansionary fiscal policy is still needed! In aggregate, corporates have the cash - policy should be guided to improve sentiment!Rebecca

Well, of course technically that would be even more true of executive compensation. But if you consider not only the pattern of stock ownership skewed to the welathy, but even the method of ownership (e.g., in retirement plans) for those likely to spend, you'll see what I mean.

RweTHEREyet,"The very thought that government is in a position to, and has a duty to, and the ability to directly, "add jobs", is at the root of all these problems."Apparently it does. There is a large stock of resources that can be used. This recession was not about an adjustment in the supply of goods and services, it's about demand. Government can supplant that demand while households and firms save.Min, "And you are right, the Federal gov't can spend without taxing corporate savings."Yes, the government CAN spend without taxing corporate savings. It just draws funds from the banking system and issues bonds! Apparently they've not breached any limit because the 10-yr Treasury bond remains at record lows!As soon as they stop saving, government revenues will rise. The challenges to the government finances is structural, not cyclical.Rebecca

I see some hyperbole involved in some of the above comments. And some common claims on deficits, public private spending etc. Lets be more specific if we can.

You are missing a lot of money by focusing on household income.US total GDP - 14.12 trillionUS total households 100,000,000 (we'll go with your figure - haven't validated)GDP / household - 141,200Fed Budget - 3.7 trillionFed Budget/household - 37,000 (26% of GDP/houshold)Seems the bigger question is - why is houshold income (if 60,000) only 42% of GDP/houshold?Unemployment insurance was an automatic stabilizer already in place, but extending unemployment insurance was part of the stimulus (and other subsequent expenditures). And there is significant evidence, as evinced in a number of studies, that the stimulus did work and prevented a deeper recession.The problem is that a 1.6 trillion fall in aggregate demand can not be adequately made up for with a 700 billion stimulus, and most of the stimulus was offset by state and local spending cuts, so total government spending actually went down.JohnFed expenditure are

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\42\76\74/div\76\n\74script type\75\42text/javascript\42\76\n var skin \75 {};\n skin[\47FACE_SIZE\47] \75 \04732\47;\n skin[\47HEIGHT\47] \75 \042260\42;\n skin[\47TITLE\47] \75 \42Followers\42;\n skin[\47BORDER_COLOR\47] \75 \42transparent\42;\n skin[\47ENDCAP_BG_COLOR\47] \75 \42transparent\42;\n skin[\47ENDCAP_TEXT_COLOR\47] \75 \42#000000\42;\n skin[\47ENDCAP_LINK_COLOR\47] \75 \42#000000\42;\n skin[\47ALTERNATE_BG_COLOR\47] \75 \42transparent\42;\n \n skin[\47CONTENT_BG_COLOR\47] \75 \42transparent\42;\n skin[\47CONTENT_LINK_COLOR\47] \75 \42#000000\42;\n skin[\47CONTENT_TEXT_COLOR\47] \75 \42#000000\42;\n skin[\47CONTENT_SECONDARY_LINK_COLOR\47] \75 \42#000000\42;\n skin[\47CONTENT_SECONDARY_TEXT_COLOR\47] \75 \42#000000\42;\n skin[\47CONTENT_HEADLINE_COLOR\47] \75 \42#000000\42;\n skin[\47FONT_FACE\47] \75 \42Arial\42;\n google.friendconnect.container.setParentUrl(\42/\42);\n google.friendconnect.container[\42renderMembersGadget\42](\n {id: \42div-10l36ay45kv7l\42,\n height: 260,\n \n \n \n site: \04216681911799602431693\42,\n \n locale: \47en_US\47 },\n skin);\n \74/script\076'}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML10', 'sidebar123', null, document.getElementById('HTML10'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML12', 'sidebar123', null, document.getElementById('HTML12'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML11', 'sidebar123', null, document.getElementById('HTML11'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_ImageView', new _WidgetInfo('Image3', 'sidebar123', null, document.getElementById('Image3'), {'resize': true}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_ImageView', new _WidgetInfo('Image1', 'sidebar123', null, document.getElementById('Image1'), {'resize': false}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_LabelView', new _WidgetInfo('Label1', 'sidebar-left', null, document.getElementById('Label1'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_GadgetView', new _WidgetInfo('Gadget1', 'sidebar-left', null, document.getElementById('Gadget1'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_BlogArchiveView', new _WidgetInfo('BlogArchive33', 'sidebar-left', null, document.getElementById('BlogArchive33'), {'languageDirection': 'ltr'}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML1', 'sidebar-left', null, document.getElementById('HTML1'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_ImageView', new _WidgetInfo('Image2', 'sidebar-left', null, document.getElementById('Image2'), {'resize': true}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_LinkListView', new _WidgetInfo('LinkList4', 'sidebar-left', null, document.getElementById('LinkList4'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_LinkListView', new _WidgetInfo('LinkList5', 'sidebar-left', null, document.getElementById('LinkList5'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML7', 'sidebar-left', null, document.getElementById('HTML7'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_BlogListView', new _WidgetInfo('BlogList2', 'sidebar-left', null, document.getElementById('BlogList2'), {'numItemsToShow': 0, 'totalItems': 8}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_BlogListView', new _WidgetInfo('BlogList1', 'sidebar-left', null, document.getElementById('BlogList1'), {'numItemsToShow': 0, 'totalItems': 1}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML4', 'sidebar-left', null, document.getElementById('HTML4'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML8', 'sidebar-left', null, document.getElementById('HTML8'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML5', 'sidebar-left', null, document.getElementById('HTML5'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_LinkListView', new _WidgetInfo('LinkList34', 'header-tabs', null, document.getElementById('LinkList34'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML2', 'header-tabs', null, document.getElementById('HTML2'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HeaderView', new _WidgetInfo('Header1', 'header')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_NavbarView', new _WidgetInfo('Navbar1', 'navbar')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_BlogView', new _WidgetInfo('Blog1', 'main', null, document.getElementById('Blog1'), {'cmtInteractionsEnabled': false, 'commentInteractionIframeUrl': 'http://www.blogger.com/comment-interaction-iframe.g?blogId\0755048766', 'showBacklinks': true, 'postId': '5485478912823614869', 'mobile': false}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML13', 'main', null, document.getElementById('HTML13'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_GadgetView', new _WidgetInfo('Gadget2', 'main', null, document.getElementById('Gadget2'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML3', 'main', null, document.getElementById('HTML3'), {}, 'displayModeFull')); _WidgetManager._RegisterWidget('_HTMLView', new _WidgetInfo('HTML9', 'main', null, document.getElementById('HTML9'), {}, 'displayModeFull'));

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