Bullish Sentiment Rebounds Sharply

By Charles Rotblut, CFA, AAII

Bullish sentiment rebounded 9.2 percentage points to 37.7% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This is a five-week high for optimism about the six-month direction of stock prices. Nevertheless, bullish sentiment continues to stay below its historical average of 39%.

(chart provided by pragcap.com)

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 4.1 percentage points to 27.3%. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 5.2 percentage points to 35.0%. Even with the pullback, bearish sentiment remained above its historical average of 30% for the fifth consecutive week.

The percentages of individual investors describing themselves as bullish or bearish remained close for the fourth time in five weeks. The lack of a clear signal is a reflection of the market's recent volatility. Though this week's rebound in stock prices helped restore some optimism, the latest survey results show that many AAII members continue to have cautious attitudes.

This week's special question asked AAII members whether domestic or global/foreign issues were having a bigger impact on their sentiment. The responses were evenly split, with some members saying both domestic and international events were having an equal impact. Here is a sampling of the responses:

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

Historical averages:

icBrokerWidget('pragcap', 600, 55); Comments B Ferro

Have cut half my long position and hedged the rest out…

Too scared of going net short, but may consider it later today…

Think we can retest the previous low or get close.

Reply 03/24/2011 at 12:35 PM Derfem

Agree…

Reply 03/24/2011 at 1:09 PM Leave a Comment Name Mail (will not be published) Website Click here to cancel reply.

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Too scared of going net short, but may consider it later today…

Think we can retest the previous low or get close.

Agree…

Notify me of follow-up comments via e-mail

© 2009 pragcap.com · Register for PC

By Charles Rotblut, CFA, AAII

Bullish sentiment rebounded 9.2 percentage points to 37.7% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This is a five-week high for optimism about the six-month direction of stock prices. Nevertheless, bullish sentiment continues to stay below its historical average of 39%.

(chart provided by pragcap.com)

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 4.1 percentage points to 27.3%. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 5.2 percentage points to 35.0%. Even with the pullback, bearish sentiment remained above its historical average of 30% for the fifth consecutive week.

The percentages of individual investors describing themselves as bullish or bearish remained close for the fourth time in five weeks. The lack of a clear signal is a reflection of the market's recent volatility. Though this week's rebound in stock prices helped restore some optimism, the latest survey results show that many AAII members continue to have cautious attitudes.

This week's special question asked AAII members whether domestic or global/foreign issues were having a bigger impact on their sentiment. The responses were evenly split, with some members saying both domestic and international events were having an equal impact. Here is a sampling of the responses:

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

Historical averages:

icBrokerWidget('pragcap', 600, 55); Comments B Ferro

Have cut half my long position and hedged the rest out…

Too scared of going net short, but may consider it later today…

Think we can retest the previous low or get close.

Reply 03/24/2011 at 12:35 PM Derfem

Agree…

Reply 03/24/2011 at 1:09 PM Leave a Comment Name Mail (will not be published) Website Click here to cancel reply.

Notify me of follow-up comments via e-mail

Popular Stories BUBBLE SPOTTING....: I've laid my cards on the table and so have a few other notable bubble spotters.  But few would arg... CASH IS TRASH?: Cash has quickly become the biggest loser in recent years as euphoria moved to panic and panic moved... HYPERINFLATION - IT'S MORE THAN JUST A MONETARY PHENOMENON: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." - Milton Friedman "Hyperinflation is al... DON'T USE A HUMAN TRAGEDY TO PUSH YOUR FAILING "JAPAN IS BANKRUPT" THESIS...: I am amazed (and disgusted) at the number of commentators, pundits and "economists" who have come ou... PREPARE FOR A "SIGNIFICANT" CHINA SLOW-DOWN: There have been minor signs that one of my biggest risks for 2011 could be coming to fruition.  Joh... DEEP THOUGHTS BY SETH KLARMAN: A big thanks to Jay at Marketfolly who brings us this great collection of essays by famed value inve... BILLION PRICES & THE FED'S NEXT MOVE....: What happens when commodity prices rise by 30% in just 6 months and you have an environment with hig... LESS MONEY, MORE MONEY - QE3 IN THE HEADLIGHTS?: The unwind of the carry trade has been in full swing for a couple of days now. It's probably been ... BULLISH SENTIMENT CRATERS: Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 7.5 perce... WHAT WE KNOW AND HOW TO PLAY IT: While David Rosenberg often gives the impression that he permanently hates US equities he does have ... Follow Us! REGISTER FOR PC LOG-IN TO PC var sc_project=5036143; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_partition=57; var sc_click_stat=1; var sc_security="5e6f901b"; icBeacon('pragcap');

© 2009 pragcap.com · Register for PC

Home · Advertise · Contact us · Disclaimer ·

Too scared of going net short, but may consider it later today…

Think we can retest the previous low or get close.

Agree…

Notify me of follow-up comments via e-mail

© 2009 pragcap.com · Register for PC

By Charles Rotblut, CFA, AAII

Bullish sentiment rebounded 9.2 percentage points to 37.7% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. This is a five-week high for optimism about the six-month direction of stock prices. Nevertheless, bullish sentiment continues to stay below its historical average of 39%.

(chart provided by pragcap.com)

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 4.1 percentage points to 27.3%. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 5.2 percentage points to 35.0%. Even with the pullback, bearish sentiment remained above its historical average of 30% for the fifth consecutive week.

The percentages of individual investors describing themselves as bullish or bearish remained close for the fourth time in five weeks. The lack of a clear signal is a reflection of the market's recent volatility. Though this week's rebound in stock prices helped restore some optimism, the latest survey results show that many AAII members continue to have cautious attitudes.

This week's special question asked AAII members whether domestic or global/foreign issues were having a bigger impact on their sentiment. The responses were evenly split, with some members saying both domestic and international events were having an equal impact. Here is a sampling of the responses:

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

Historical averages:

icBrokerWidget('pragcap', 600, 55); Comments B Ferro

Have cut half my long position and hedged the rest out…

Too scared of going net short, but may consider it later today…

Think we can retest the previous low or get close.

Reply 03/24/2011 at 12:35 PM Derfem

Agree…

Reply 03/24/2011 at 1:09 PM Leave a Comment Name Mail (will not be published) Website Click here to cancel reply.

Notify me of follow-up comments via e-mail

Popular Stories BUBBLE SPOTTING....: I've laid my cards on the table and so have a few other notable bubble spotters.  But few would arg... CASH IS TRASH?: Cash has quickly become the biggest loser in recent years as euphoria moved to panic and panic moved... HYPERINFLATION - IT'S MORE THAN JUST A MONETARY PHENOMENON: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." - Milton Friedman "Hyperinflation is al... DON'T USE A HUMAN TRAGEDY TO PUSH YOUR FAILING "JAPAN IS BANKRUPT" THESIS...: I am amazed (and disgusted) at the number of commentators, pundits and "economists" who have come ou... PREPARE FOR A "SIGNIFICANT" CHINA SLOW-DOWN: There have been minor signs that one of my biggest risks for 2011 could be coming to fruition.  Joh... DEEP THOUGHTS BY SETH KLARMAN: A big thanks to Jay at Marketfolly who brings us this great collection of essays by famed value inve... BILLION PRICES & THE FED'S NEXT MOVE....: What happens when commodity prices rise by 30% in just 6 months and you have an environment with hig... LESS MONEY, MORE MONEY - QE3 IN THE HEADLIGHTS?: The unwind of the carry trade has been in full swing for a couple of days now. It's probably been ... BULLISH SENTIMENT CRATERS: Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 7.5 perce... WHAT WE KNOW AND HOW TO PLAY IT: While David Rosenberg often gives the impression that he permanently hates US equities he does have ... Follow Us! REGISTER FOR PC LOG-IN TO PC var sc_project=5036143; var sc_invisible=1; var sc_partition=57; var sc_click_stat=1; var sc_security="5e6f901b"; icBeacon('pragcap');

© 2009 pragcap.com · Register for PC

Home · Advertise · Contact us · Disclaimer ·

Too scared of going net short, but may consider it later today…

Think we can retest the previous low or get close.

Agree…

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