Why Friday's Jobs Report Is So Important

Editor's note: Updated from yesterday, emphasizing what the consequences would be if Friday's figure comes up short of 200,000 as well as what threshold should be cause for alarm if it does.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Economists expect the Labor Department to report on Friday that the economy added 200,000 jobs in March. After adding 192,000 jobs in February, this would indicate the economy is finally gaining some flying speed; but if the jobs figure falls significantly short of 200,000, the economic recovery is in a lot of trouble. Since July 2009, GDP has been growing at a bit less than 3% a year -- just enough to keep pace with productivity growth at 2% and population growth at about 1%. After adding less than 100,000 jobs per month over 13 months ending in January, the private sector is finally starting to create jobs in significant numbers that are not temporary or in the government subsidized health care and social services sector. If the March jobs figure comes in at less than 165,000, that would indicate the higher oil prices and political conditions in Africa and the Middle East, renewed weakness in the housing market, uncertainty about the federal deficit and sovereign debt crises in Europe and supply-chain disruptions from the Japanese crisis are slowing growth to 2.5%, perhaps less. Growth in the range of 2.5% is hardly sustainable; any hiccup would then cause a negative cycle of renewed layoffs, consumer pessimism, falling retail sales, more layoffs -- and ultimately, recession. Weekly jobless claims seem to be stabilizing at around 390,000. While that is better than in 2010, it is hardly a healthy level for an expanding economy -- something less than 350,000. If the economy created less than 165,000 jobs in March, it is at peril of a second recession. Much stronger growth is needed to get unemployment down to an acceptable level. The economy must add 13 million private-sector jobs over the next three years -- 360,000 each month -- to bring unemployment down to 6%. Core private-sector jobs must increase at least 300,000 a month to accomplish that goal. Growth in the range of 4% to 5% is needed and possible to get unemployment down to 6% over the next several years, but significant structural barriers remain. Add Comment Tweet 1 2 Last » Next › adsonar_placementId=1341527;adsonar_pid=879768;adsonar_ps=-1;adsonar_zw=600;adsonar_zh=280;adsonar_jv='ads.adsonar.com'; try { function DM_onSegsAvailable(segs, cust_id) { for (var i=0;i //* Global Functions *// function metadataRegisterNS(ns){ var nsParts = ns.split("."); var root = window; for(var i=0; i Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note 12355.49 1328.67 2780.88 34.59 Oil * 117.17 UP 4.88 UP 0.41 UP 4.09 UP 0.04 10 Yr 3.46% SPDR Gold 140.2 0.04% 0.03% 0.15% 0.12% Data delayed 20 minutes Top Stories and Tools var randnum = Math.floor(Math.random() * 100) if (randnum < 45) { document.write("Ex-Dividend Date Calendar"); document.write("Cramer's Latest Picks from Mad Money"); document.write("Free: Stock Rating Reports"); document.write("Top-Rated Stocks"); document.write("Highest-Yielding Dividend Stocks"); document.write("Investment Research Center"); } else { document.write("10 Best Dow Dividend Stocks"); document.write("Top 10 'Buy'-Rated Stocks Under $5"); document.write("10 Traits That Make You Filthy-Rich"); document.write("13 Ugliest Phones of the Mobile Era"); document.write("10 Celebrities Who Lost Big Financially"); document.write("Top Warren Buffett Dividend Stocks"); } Twitter Facebook RSS Mobile App adsonar_placementId=1341369;adsonar_pid=879768;adsonar_ps=-1;adsonar_zw=320;adsonar_zh=280;adsonar_jv='ads.adsonar.com'; Brokerage Partners YAHOO.util.Event.on(window,"load",function(){ setTimeout(function(){ TSCM.util.attachScript('scr_intellitxt','http://thestreet.us.intellitxt.com/intellitxt/front.asp?ipid=10685'); },1200); }); var onespot = { account: 'thestreet.onespot.com', modules: [ { name: 'top', placeholder: 'onespot_nextclick_top' }, { name: 'bottom', placeholder: 'onespot_nextclick_bottom' } ], content_areas: [ { select: 'h1' }, { select: 'div.virtualpage', exclude: 'div' } ], autolink_exclude: 'p:eq(0), p:eq(1), table', autolink_case_sensitive: true }; (function () { var d = new Image(1, 1); d.onerror = d.onload = function () { d.onerror = d.onload = null; }; d.src = ["//secure-us.imrworldwide.com/cgi-bin/m?ci=us-thestreet&cg=tsc&cc=1&si=", escape(window.location.href), "&rp=", escape(document.referrer), "&ts=compact&rnd=", (new Date()).getTime()].join(''); })(); Free Newsletters from TheStreet

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

ETF Daily

Midday Bell

TSC Top Ten Stories Newsletter

Winners & Losers

We respect your privacy. Manage Newsletters Podcasts [Select Podcast] The Real Story Wall Street Confidential Podcast Daily RSS Updates

TheStreet Mobile Edition

Connect with TheStreet

YAHOO.util.Event.on(window,"load",function() { try { var loginlink = YAHOO.util.Dom.get("logonoff"); var cookie = new UserStatus().streetCookie; if(cookie.indexOf('|')== -1){ loginlink.setAttribute("href",""); loginlink.innerHTML = "Log In"; } } catch(e) {} }); TheStreet Mobile | MainStreet | StockPickr | BankingMyWay | Jim Cramer | Doug Kass | RealMoney | Try Action Alerts PLUS TheStreet Corporate | Home | About Us | Advertise | Customer Service | Employment | Privacy Policy | Sitemap | Topic Archive | Video Archive | Stock Quotes Online | Terms of Use if (document.location.href.indexOf("/print/")!= -1){ var tsclogo = "tsc_logo200x41"; } else { var tsclogo = "tsc_logo190x39"; } document.write('

TheStreet\'s enterprise databases running Oracle are professionally monitored and managed by Pythian Remote DBA.

Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes for all exchanges. Market Data provided by Interactive Data. Company fundamental data provided by Morningstar. Earnings and ratings provided by Zacks. Mutual fund data provided by Valueline. ETF data provided by Lipper. Terms & Conditions. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions.

TheStreet Ratings updates stock ratings daily. However, if no rating change occurs, the data on this page does not update. The data does update after 90 days if no rating change occurs within that time period.

IDC calculates the Market Cap for the basic symbol to include common shares only. Year-to-date mutual fund returns are calculated on a monthly basis by Value Line and posted mid-month.

*Oil Data in Market Overview is Brent Crude Pricing

© 1996-2011 TheStreet.com, Inc. All rights reserved.

'); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.sz = "728x90"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.resetTargets(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.calltype = "adj"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.includeDcopt = true; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.additionalTargeting = ";;storytype=opinion;kval=opinion"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.writeTag(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.sz = "233x224"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.resetTargets(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.calltype = "adj"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.adtype = "cau"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.additionalTargeting = ";;storytype=opinion;kval=opinion"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.writeTag(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.sz = "336x280,336x850,300x250,468x648"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.resetTargets(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.calltype = "adj"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.additionalTargeting = ";;storytype=opinion;kval=opinion;;storytype=opinion;kval=opinion"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.writeTag(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.sz="336x280,300x250"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.resetTargets(); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.setSite("remnant.thestreet.com"); TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.additionalTargeting=";box=second"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.calltype="adj"; TSCM.ads.AdPlacerx.writeTag(); /** * function wrapper that places all DART ads using TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder * if positionToPlaceholder can't find the elements specified, it just returns and is ready for the next call */ TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds = function() { // DART 1 (banner) TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'ad728x90', placeholder: 'bannerContainer', flexibleHeight: false }); //DART 2 TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'customUnit', placeholder: 'cauContainer', flexibleHeight: true }); //DART 3 TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'boxAd', placeholder: 'boxAdContainer', flexibleHeight: true }); //DART 4 TSCM.ads.positionToPlaceholder({ ad: 'secondBoxAd', placeholder: 'secondBoxAdContainer', flexibleHeight: false }); }; TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds() window.setTimeout(function() { TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds() }, 2000); window.onresize = function() { setTimeout(function() { TSCM.ads.placeLazyLoadingAds(); }, 1000); }; function lazyLoaderVisibility() { YAHOO.util.Dom.setStyle("lazyLoadedObjects", "visibility", "visible"); } YAHOO.util.Event.onDOMReady( lazyLoaderVisibility ); var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'UA-6534317-1']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); _gaq.push(['_setCustomVar', 1, // This custom var is set to slot #1. Required parameter. 'gwo2', // The name acts as a kind of category for the user activity. Required parameter. 'gw-' + getcombo_ga2("7-0-0"), // This value of the custom variable. Required parameter. 2 // Sets the scope to session-level. Optional parameter. ]); _gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'recommended', 'LOADED']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); /* */ var disqus_shortname = 'thestreet'; (function () { var s = document.createElement('script'); s.async = true; s.src = 'http://disqus.com/forums/thestreet/count.js'; (document.getElementsByTagName('HEAD')[0] || document.getElementsByTagName('BODY')[0]).appendChild(s); }()); BF_BB_DATA = null; (function( ){ document.write(''); var sid="76IOF7"; var c=""; var b=""; BF_BB_SCRIPT=document.createElement('script'); BF_BB_SCRIPT.type="text/javascript"; BF_BB_SRC="http://buzzbox.buzzfeed.com/wd/BuzzBox?sid=" + sid + c + b + '&it=1&cb=' + (new Date()).getTime(); setTimeout(function() { document.getElementById('BF_BUZZBOX').appendChild(BF_BB_SCRIPT); BF_BB_SCRIPT.src=BF_BB_SRC; },1); })();

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

ETF Daily

Midday Bell

TSC Top Ten Stories Newsletter

Winners & Losers

TheStreet Mobile Edition

Connect with TheStreet

Read Full Article »