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RECENT POSTSCurrent DateTime: 01:36:39 13 Apr 2011LinksList Documentid: 27913298Expiration DateTime: 4/13/2011 1:39:38 AMYour First Move For Wednesday April 13thPro Traders: Bears About to Push S&P Sharply Lower?Week's Most Important Earnings Report?Ultimate Street Fight: Solar EnergyOptions Action: BRICsWeb Extra: Topping the Tape - RetailEconomy Growing Slower Than Expected?Pops & Drops: Monster Worldwide, Delta...FAST MONEY FEATURESFAST MONEY POLLGet in the post game. Respond to our "Question of the Day" right now.TRADE SCHOOLGrab a pencil because school is in session and the Fast Money traders are teaching class.FAST MONEY PODCASTSDownload Fast Money onto your MP3 Player.FAST MONEY WIDGETGrab this all-in-one application and get recaps of the show sent right to your desktop or blog.SHOP FOR FAST MONEY MERCHANDISEGet your game on with Fast Money gear.FAST MONEY PHOTOS!Check out our scrapbook. These "pix" are guaranteed winners.NEWSLETTERSign up and receive a daily email from the Fast Money team!FAST MONEY MOBILE ALERTSGet advanced information about the next Fast Money.setDefault('cnbc_textbody');Inflation Actually Near 10% Using Older MeasurePublished:
Tuesday, 12 Apr 2011 | 5:18 PM ET Text Size By: John MelloyExecutive Producer, Fast Money
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After former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker was appointed in 1979, the consumer price index surged into the double digits, causing the now revered Fed Chief to double the benchmark interest rate in order to break the back of inflation. Using the methodology in place at that time puts the CPI back near those levels.
Getty ImagesInflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter.
Since 1980, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has changed the way it calculates the CPI in order to account for the substitution of products, improvements in quality (i.e. iPad 2 costing the same as original iPad) and other things. Backing out more methods implemented in 1990 by the BLS still puts inflation at a 5.5 percent rate and getting worse, according to the calculations by the newsletter's web site, Shadowstats.com.
"Near-term circumstances generally have continued to deteriorate," said John Williams, creator of the site, in a new note out Tuesday. "Though not yet commonly recognized, there is both an intensifying double-dip recession and a rapidly escalating inflation problem. Until such time as financial-market expectations catch up with underlying reality, reporting generally will continue to show higher-than-expected inflation and weaker-than-expected economic results in the month and months ahead."
The pay-site and newsletter by Williams, an economic consultant for the last 30 years to companies, has gained a cult following among bloggers hungry to criticize Bernanke these days. The mission statement of the newsletter, according to the site, is to expose and analyze "flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting"¦net of financial-market and political hype."
Investors are anxiously awaiting the release of March's CPI reading on Friday. The consensus estimate from economists is for an annual inflation rate of 2.6 percent.
"Given ongoing inflation problems with food and the spreading impact of higher oil-related costs in the broad economy, reporting risk is to the upside of consensus expectation," said Williams, citing a 10 percent jump in gasoline prices in March, in the note.
"While the federal government would have us believe the numbers are rather tame, our own personal gauge leads us to believe inflation is running between 5 percent to 6 percent annually," wrote Alan Newman in his latest Crosscurrents newsletter that refers to Williams' statistics.
Newman uses recent comments from Walmart CEO Bill Simon that inflation is going to be "serious" to back up the much higher CPI figures from him and Williams.
"Given Walmart's WMTloading...
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