It's Time For Investors To Run and Hide

Anthony Mirhaydari MSN Money April 28, 2011

4/27/2011 12:02 PM ET

By Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money

The stock market can ignore economic woes and worries for only so long. Here's why a pullback is on the horizon and the smart money is preparing for the worst, as well as several ways to get defensive.

Related topics: Treasurys, Johnson and Johnson, Federal Reserve, ETF, Anthony Mirhaydari

Since last summer, it's been a very good time to be in the stock market. The economic turmoil and price volatility which had become so commonplace were smoothed over. This taste of the "epic bull market" I predicted in September overpowered the popular obsession with bonds and drove the average investor back into stocks in a big way.

Mainly, this was due to the Federal Reserve's $600 billion money dump, teased in August 2010 and confirmed in November. Economists have dubbed the move "QE2" -- short for the second round of quantitative easing -- but the terminology isn't important, and the strategy wasn't new. The Fed started buying back long-term bonds in late 2008 and expanded its "QE1" program in March 2009 to eventually total $1.7 trillion, helping put an end to the bear market.

Investing in defensive stocks

In short, the Fed has been injecting cheap cash into the heart of the financial system. As a result, equities, commodities and other assets have all pushed higher with nary an interruption. We've had the bailout of Ireland, a midterm U.S. election, revolutions in the Middle East, interest rate hikes in the developing world -- and yet the move has continued.

Anthony Mirhaydari

Since Sept. 1, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) has climbed 27%. The small cap stocks in the Russell 2000 ($RUT.X) have added more than 40%. As a result, investor sentiment has soared. Margin trading -- investing with borrowed money -- has become popular again. In fact, brokerage cash levels are now at their lowest levels since June 2007. At the same time, outflows from ultraconservative money market mutual funds have surged to a four-month high, according to EPFR.

There just isn't that much dry powder -- uninvested cash -- left out there.

Yet conditions have become more difficult lately, with the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, a bailout in Portugal and violence in Libya dampening enthusiasm. Inflationary pressures are also on the rise, a nasty side effect of the Fed's intervention. Higher food and fuel prices have scuttled consumer confidence and dampened corporate profitability, and they now threaten economic growth. Indeed, as I mentioned in a recent blog post, first quarter gross domestic product is set to disappoint.

Within days of the S&P 500's late February high, I warned of market trouble. The situation has only worsened since. So is it time for investors to batten down the hatches?

I think so. First I'll tell you why. Then I'll offer some ideas on where to move your money to keep it safe.

A constellation of concerns

There is plenty for investors to worry about right now. America's top-tier AAA credit rating was threatened by Standard & Poor's analysts April 18 when they -- for the first time since 1941 -- put America on downgrade watch. (I presaged this warning and explored the economic impact of the budget-cutting it seems to demand, in my Feb. 2 column.)

Crude oil worries have only worsened as the "Arab spring" has spread to Yemen and Syria. And NATO intervention has resulted in only a protracted stalemate between rebel forces and Moammar Gadhafi in Libya. (I explored the oil supply situation in my March 3 column.)

The economy has yet to show it can stand on its own without the help of government assistance, be it QE1, QE2, Obama's stimulus package or the $858 billion tax cut passed in December. All of these tailwinds are now turning into headwinds as central banks around the world tighten policy and governments cut spending and raise taxes.

The United States is one of the last holdouts. But QE2 is set to end in June and the battle over the 2012 budget -- and the need to raise the U.S. Treasury's debt ceiling -- is just beginning.

And the eurozone crisis is heating up again as Greece moves closer to a debt default or restructuring. The London Telegraph reports that European Union and International Monetary Fund officials are expected to visit Athens as early as next week to review the country's progress on its fiscal deficit and possibly address worries about its current debt levels.

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Thanks for the review of facts ACTIVE...

Dont worry- next year Fox News will be funding high school history across the country. Then your job will get much tougher.

0 0ReportSpamJust enter your preferred display name below3 hours ago

OK Let's look at two of the picks for investment in the article.

One JNJ has had all sorts of quality control issues due to the fact that they have fired all their American workers and hired Mexican workers who do not pay attention to what they are doing. The law suits alone and the abandonment of JNJ goods by the consumer put this elephant firmly in the ditch so dump this stock and quickly.

As to putting money in bonds. With the Federal Reserve not buying US T-bills anymore and China building 30 million homes for their people and two nuclear power plants a year for the next ten years is not going to be in any position to buy US T-bills nor is Japan having to rebuild 1/3 of it's country and replace it's nuclear plants with expensive coal burning plants in the next ten years is also not going to be buying US T-bills and Europe has a mess with the piigs bailout and will not be buying any US T-bills. In fact all three will be selling US T-bills in the coming year.

So who will buy the US T-bills? The rest of the world does not have enough money and the super rich in America are investing in China,India , Vietnam and Brazil with the money they get from not paying their fair share of taxes. Buffet is typical of the super rich and instead of paying 35 percent in income tax as per Reagan with the deal he made of taking the tax breaks away from the rich and lowering their taxes from 74 percent. Only now 30 years later the tax breaks are back and Buffet even though he says he is for paying more tax is only paying 2 percent income tax on all his billions. So much for Reagan's deal the super rich are not paying any tax at all. It seems like a lot to normal people but it's only 2 percent of what they earn. Wish I would be able to pay only 2 percent.

So basically the only way the US will be able to sell T-bills to fund the deficit and everyone else not rolling over their T-bills will be to offer 15 percent interest like Greece is now. That will increase bond yields so high that everyone in bonds will lose a lot of money.

Things are going to get a lot worse people.

3 0ReportSpamhavasu463 hours ago

Oh, boy. The last time Anthony wrote one of these was back in late August and then the market went on a tear and spent three months going up. Ok, it was mostly because of the Fed and QE2 but anyway here we go again. I'd definitely be looking to take some winnings off the table after this week but don't think it's going to get as bad as last year. Rotation from momentum plays (Apple, Google, etc.) into big cap laggards (GE, INTC, MSFT, T, XLU) is already under way.

1 0ReportSpamActive RIA3 hours ago

everybody's an expert huh? stocks are a great hedge against inflation. the common folk with money under the mattress generally remain just that - common. how can you possibly knock a writer for doing his job and voicing an opinion? bush started TARP or TBTF protection, Obama did the stimulus. "profits" by themselves are meaningless unless taken in context or compared to year-over-year.

finally, not one suggestion of a market neutral position with 15% in gold, 15% in REITS, 35% in equities and $35% in cash? the market goes up and you make 50% of the upside with half the risk. the market goes down and you invest the cash by buying low.

either way you are a win-win situational genius. breathe deeply people .....

5 0ReportSpamSomeone (sheluvme) 4 hours agocome on anthony - you might get good hits by having a doomsday title article, but this article takes factual chart information and draws unreasonable conclusions that seriously mislead msn readers. Lumber prices have an eerie ability to predict what's coming for home sales, housing stocks, job creation and more. That's due in large part to the long lead times and great expenses associated with increasing wood production. so that indicates the stock market is going to crash? Here is a much better written article as to why lumber prices are behaving the way they are...http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703551304576260991182322926.html?mod=googlenews_wsjTreasury prices: But professional futures traders are building big positions in Treasury bond futureswhat traders? you and your buddies?you make it sound like it is a done deal that treasury prices will rise b/c investors are already seeing past inflation and are no worried about deflation???? i can't believe all these words were in 1 paragraph without technical facts. you don't even mention the effects of how QE2 ending will help or not help treasury prices. here again is a much better written article that shows how true experts on treasuries have strong disagreements on what will happen in the coming months..http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704123204576282932650423962.htmlThen you top it off with recommending a triple leveraged treasury ETF without any explanation or disclosure of how 3x leverage funds are only built to track daily performance and have great risk as a long-term holding. I really wonder to myself what the heck Mr. Jubak thinks when he sees these articles next to his own. 1 0ReportSpamtell what you think4 hours agoWhat a bunch of bought and paid for horse pucky. Yeah, put your money into things that won't go down as much, is what they are saying. How about we pull our money out and don't put it into anything, including the things that won't go down as much. It's all going down, the question is, how much? If inflation talk takes off, you had better be in commodities. This is a hedge against inflation. This is why gold and silver has been going up. Right now, I would be into the dollar. Quantitive easing is over. We might get a rise out of the dollar. If that happens, everything goes down. We can than buy back into what ever. Once inflation takes hold, put it into commodities, they are a hedge against inflation. Not now though. They are set to take a fall. Don't listen to these talking heads though, they will have you standing on your head, and poking beans up your nose. They are bought and paid for by the Big Money. They are trying to tell you what to do. Pay attention to the real news and current events in the world. Let that dictate to you. The talking heads will spin it for the Big Money elititists of the world who owns and tells them how to report things. 2 1ReportSpamthumprr5 hours agoThere's a fool and his money parted daily. This false market has been stimulated by the Feds only. The common folk have stayed out. Just look at the volume. This market will crash like a speeding train. 6 7ReportSpamrunion5 hours agoAs soon as I saw who wrote this I didn't need to read it, I knew it was bogus. This quy has never been close to right on anything. Just remember this crap when you realize I should've been in the game. 7 5ReportSpamWalt Straub6 hours agoFYI 0 1ReportSpamMalfeasance6 hours ago

This guy had me until his comment about "Obama's stimulus." It was Bush and Paulson's passed just before Obama was sworn in as president. Obama inherited it and although I have little use for Bush, the Stimulus worked.

I think I'll buy something tomorrow for no other reason than this guys lie, or mistake, show him to be nothing but a partisan clown masquarading as some kind of financial guru.

Newsflash pal, predict something enough times and it's like a broken clock. Eventually it will show the correct time.

6 13ReportSpamchowhound6 hours ago

Real shame he gets a Doomsday Headline from the website. Media will always pimp crisis to get eyeballs. They got mine. Bastards. The crime here is that STOCKS ARE UNDERVALUED at this point versus historical earnings for the last 2 decades.

INVESTORS; AVOID THIS IDIOT'S PANIC. Continue to buy this bull market; buying dips, selling into strengths. diversify. Bonds are the last place to go for protection. If fear propels you, go to silver and gold.

14 14ReportSpamtrademe7 hours agoLowering GDP and earnings expectations is similar to playing hoops on a 7 foot rim.... Slam dunks look better!!! 12 1ReportSpamWS6 Trans Am7 hours ago

This butt pirate needs to shut his mouth because its crap like this article from people that really have no clue that cause the market to drop the next day.

There is no oil supply issues. Oil prices are high because of commodity traders. get rid of them and oil drops back to $50 a barrel.

But how is the economy doing bad when companies are just blowing away forecasts for profits? Apparently the economy isnt doing that bad because if it were companies wouldnt be beating estimates. The only way to beat estimates is to sell more and make more off what you sell than predicted.

Sure these countries may default, but in reality if Greece or Spain defaults that wont affect the US. Googles profit wont tank into the red because of that. GM and Ford wont go bankrupt. Microsoft wont need to go to the US government for money to stay alive. Its just investors blowing things out of proportion. Japans issue isnt affecting the US much at all. Its affecting the Japanese car companies, but hardly hurting the big 3. Libya hasnt created a supply problem or demand issue. It hasnt thrown the world out of wack to justify $4 gas or $110 a barrel oil. Investors just OVERREACT bigtime.

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