Making Progress On The Foreclosure Pipeline

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» MoreCurrent DateTime: 11:30:55 03 May 2011LinksList Documentid: 23279692Expiration DateTime: 5/3/2011 11:33:52 AM cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("", "23279692_1","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); A Look Inside the Foreclosure Pipeline cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("42880410", "23279692_1","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); Home Builders Hedge Their Bets on Housing Recovery cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("42821891", "23279692_2","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); Remodeling as a Housing Indicator cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("42800288", "23279692_3","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); Home Rentership Society cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("42767177", "23279692_4","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); "?Optimism' In Housing? cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("42749735", "23279692_5","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); Does Private Mortgage Insurance Have a Place in the New Mortgage Order? cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("42613396", "23279692_6","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); Foreclosure Fight Needs to Find Fast Answers cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("42592108", "23279692_7","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); Federal Regulators Hit Banks on Mortgage Practices cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("42573141", "23279692_8","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); Robo-Settlement Snags cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("42553732", "23279692_9","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); Even Short-Term FHA Shutdown Will Hit Housing cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("42495087", "23279692_10","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("", "23279692_1","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); MOST SHAREDCurrent DateTime: 11:30:53 03 May 2011LinksList Documentid: 31330905Expiration DateTime: 5/3/2011 11:33:45 AM cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("", "31330905_1","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); A Look Inside the Foreclosure Pipeline cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("http://www.cnbc.com/id/42880410", "31330905_1","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); Fed Seeks Exit cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000019469&play=1", "31330905_2","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); Rejecting Wall Street, Grads Become Entrepreneurs Instead cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("http://www.cnbc.com/id/42880072", "31330905_3","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); Fed Still Lacks 'Exit Strategy,' but Talks Are Heating Up cnbc_commentCountMapObj.cnbc_commentCountMap_put("http://www.cnbc.com/id/42879953", "31330905_4","cnbcCommentsTxt" ); CNBC Poll: Are Genetically-Modified Foods OK? 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The US Attorney goes after Deutsche Bank, fewer borrowers are falling behind, and Long Island, Miami and Va. Beach carry the highest financial risk from storm damage, reports CNBC's Diana Olick.

CNBC's Diana Olick has the update on the real estate market.

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CNBC's Diana Olick with the latest new home sales numbers in March.

Stay up to date with Realty Check.

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For the first time in years, a guy who quantifies the foreclosure crisis got to report some good news.

Kyle Lundstedt's colleagues at LPS Applied Analytics call him Dr. Doom, as he calculates all the numbers for the monthly Mortgage Monitor Report.

But this month he got to report a drop in mortgage delinquencies, down more than 11 percent month-over month, to the lowest level since 2008.

"We're starting to see that there are a lot of folks who are still hanging in there," says Lundstedt. "The population is a better credit quality population."

The subprimes, Alt-A's, the bad lending of the housing boom, have largely moved through the system already, not to mention that big banks and servicers are getting far more aggressive with loan modifications. One quarter of the loans that were more than 90 days delinquent last year are now current. That's not to say they will all stay current, but that's a good sign.

Unfortunately, that's all Dr. Doom could muster on the bright side: "It's progress; it's not game-changing."

That's because the foreclosure pipeline, that is loans 90+ days delinquent or in the foreclosure process, is enormous. Foreclosure inventory is at a new all-time high. There are so many loans still waiting to go into foreclosure...in fact the total number of loans 90+ delinquent is 45 times the size of the current monthly foreclosure sale number. 45 times!

It would take 4 years, at the current foreclosure sales pace, to process all those troubled loans, and that's just selling the loans back to the bank, not selling the foreclosed properties onto the housing market; you can add another year for that. And that's why I'm not exactly ready to call a bottom to home prices. All that foreclosure inventory, for that long period of time, will weigh on prices no question.

But isn't it just in those few bad states, like Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California?

No.

Those were the states with the biggest subprime lending problems, which means they have seen the bulk of the foreclosures completed already. Yes, their volumes, their absolute levels, will be the highest, but the greatest increase in REO (bank-owned) activity is yet to come in places like the East Coast, the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest. That's where the borrowers fell behind because of unemployment and the recession, not because of the quality of their loans.

So is the foreclosure crisis over? I think that all depends on the ultimate cost of the clean up.

RELATED LINKSCurrent DateTime: 09:18:35 03 May 2011LinksList Documentid: 42880534Deutsche Bank Faces US Mortgage Fraud Lawsuit10 Tips for Surviving the Housing Market20 Hidden Costs of Home Ownership

Questions?  Comments?  document.write("");document.write("RealtyCheck"+"@"+"cnbc.com");document.write(''); And follow me on Twitter @Diana_Olick

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