How to Choose a Great Stock

Henry M. Paulson: On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial SystemA good study in ideology versus the reality of the financial crisis. This is a story that you will not get anywhere else, and it is worth reading.

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson: The Little Book of Sideways Markets: How to Make Money in Markets that Go Nowhere (Little Books. Big Profits)An engaging and entertaining resource for understanding markets and picking stocks.

Mark D. Wolfinger: The Rookie's Guide to Options: The Beginner's Handbook of Trading Equity Options

Michael Lewis: The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday MachineA captivating story of the crisis, told from the perspective of the winners, but with lessons for all.

Barry Ritholtz: Bailout Nation, with New Post-Crisis Update: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World EconomyAn informative and entertaining account of the financial crisis. Almost anyone will find this stimulating and useful.

Leonard Mlodinow: The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives (Vintage)Great insight for investors seeking to distinguish real indicators from random noise.

Kate Kelly: Street Fighters: The Last 72 Hours of Bear Stearns, the Toughest Firm on Wall StreetGood read, good info -- a building block for anyone trying to figure it out. What the heck happened!??

Michael Shermer: Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstition, and Other Confusions of Our Time

Graham T. Allison: Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (2nd Edition)A seminal work on decision-making.

Mancur Olson: The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups, Second printing with new preface and appendix (Harvard Economic Studies)

Andy Kessler: Wall Street Meat: My Narrow Escape from the Stock Market Grinder

Roger Lowenstein: When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management

Robert A. Caro: Master of the Senate: The Years of Lyndon Johnson, (Vintage)

Ken Uston: Million Dollar Blackjack

Edwin Lefèvre: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (A Marketplace Book)

Neil Browne: Asking the Right Questions: A Guide to Critical Thinking (8th Edition)

Ralph Vince: Portfolio Management Formulas : Mathematical Trading Methods for the Futures, Options, and Stock Markets

Malcolm Gladwell: Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking

Brett N. Steenbarger: Enhancing Trader Performance: Proven Strategies From the Cutting Edge of Trading Psychology (Wiley Trading)

Robert J. Shiller: Irrational Exuberance

Gene Epstein: Econospinning: How to Read Between the Lines When the Media Manipulate the Numbers

Edward R. Tufte: The Visual Display of Quantitative InformationThe authoritative work on the subject.

Murray Edelman: The Symbolic Uses of Politics

Gary Belsky: Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes And How To Correct Them: Lessons From The New Science Of Behavioral Economics

Laurence H. Meyer: A Term at the Fed : An Insider's View

James Altucher: Trade Like a Hedge Fund : 20 Successful Uncorrelated Strategies & Techniques to Winning Profits

Janet Lowe: Warren Buffett Speaks : Wit and Wisdom from the World's Greatest Investor

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Fooled by Randomness : The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

William Poundstone: Fortune's Formula : The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street

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What if you could find a stock that was exciting for both value and growth investors?  Can there be such a company?

A value investor would want to find a sound balance sheet, a strong return on invested equity, and sound prospects for the future.

The growth investor would pay attention to earnings growth, the P/E multiple, and future growth prospects.

A Company to Consider

One of my five investment programs focuses specifically on Great Stocks --  great companies, great management, great prices.  It has been my most successful program, beating the S&P 500 nicely over more than ten years.  When it trails, it is usually because the market is "selling winners."

Occasionaly I write about one of our selections.

Using my criteria, please consider the following facts:

This is a stock that is exciting in terms of both value and growth.

Hiding in Plain Sight

Why does this value persist?

I think there are two reasons.

And the Mystery Stock is..... Apple

Astute readers may have noticed that the facts fit the Apple (AAPL) story.  All of the numbers have been divided by ten.

Last February I wrote a similar article, suggesting that most people incorrectly focused on the absolute stock price rather than the underlying fundamentals.  I suggested that readers should divide everything by ten, pretending that Apple did a 10-1 stock split.

I strongly recommend that readers go back to the old article and compare it to the current situation.  It is not that I am predicting a 10-1 split (but I would not be surprised).  Instead, I suggest that people think about individual stocks and the market as a whole in terms of earnings and growth, not using absolute price.  The price makes you think you have missed out.

Every day is a new one for investors.  Look ahead!

The Current Apple Debate

There are some current articles about Apple and the huge cash accumulation.  What a great problem to have.

Investment Conclusion

Apple continues to be an attractive stock.  Many have missed out by making common mistakes instead of looking at earnings and earnings growth.

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