How the Fed's QE Made the Rich Richer

5/4/2011 11:24 AM ET

By Anthony Mirhaydari, MSN Money

The 'QE2' project was supposed to ease borrowing and get consumers to spend again. Instead, it has benefited only a few while raising most people's cost of living.

Related topics: stocks, Federal Reserve, economy, shorting, Anthony Mirhaydari

Aside from the dramatic killing of Osama Bin Laden, Americans haven't had a lot to be excited about lately.

Just 22% believe the country is on the right track, Rasmussen tells us. According to a new Gallup poll, more than half of us say the economy is in recession or depression, despite the fact that output has been expanding since the summer of 2009. In fact, more of us (29%) say the country is in a depression than say the economy is growing (27%).

What is 'quantitative easing' all about?

There's a good reason for this: As inflation surges at the store and the gas pump, the economy is stalling. And the heart of the problem could very well be the Federal Reserve's $600 billion "QE2" money-printing initiative, which was implemented last November to great fanfare on Wall Street and is set to end in June.

While the program has helped push up the cost of living for all of us -- sending inflation into the red zone and damaging consumer confidence -- evidence suggests its benefits have accrued only to the top tier of the net-worth ladder.

Anthony Mirhaydari

Here's a look at how the Fed went off course -- followed by a few investing ideas to protect yourself from the results.

Yes, the stock market has posted impressive gains since the idea of QE2 surfaced, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) up nearly 31% from its low last August. And that has pushed up household net worth by $2 trillion. The hope has been that this will translate into new spending and drive the economy forward.

But stock ownership is concentrated among the wealthy: On average, just 12% of households worth $100,000 or less own stocks and mutual fund shares outside their retirement plans -- a group that comprises 74% of the total population. While many more own shares through 401ks and IRAs, they're not in a position to easily tap that wealth for current spending.

At the same time, QE2 has pushed up borrowing costs, pressing down the prices of homes -- a much more widely held asset. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index started falling last summer as the idea of QE2 was floated, and it hasn't stopped since. The broad 20-city index now sits below 2009 levels.

This is a continuation of trends that have been in place since the recession ended in 2009. According to Credit Suisse equity strategist Douglas Cliggott, it suggests the improvement in net worth during the past two and half years "has been heavily skewed towards that relatively small part of the U.S. population that has significant equity holdings."

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In other words, the Fed's "stimulus" has made the rich richer, with limited impact in terms of new spending. It's made the vast majority of people poorer, and less able to spend. It's this tradeoff that threatens to snuff out the feeble, three-year-old economic recovery.

Disappointing GDP

Just look at the first-quarter GDP growth numbers released last week. Most people just aren't spending.

The government reported that GDP growth slowed to 1.8% annualized from 3.1% in the fourth quarter -- a dramatic slowdown at a time when both QE2 and the government's payroll tax cut were in full effect. Indeed, Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics was disappointed enough to tell his clients that given all the tailwinds, he had "originally hoped for a lot more."

The drop was due mainly to bad weather, higher energy prices and a decline in consumer spending. The last two of these factors, at least, are set to continue with the budget fight under way and commodity prices still high. Consumption growth slowed to 2.7% from 4% previously -- mainly due to a drop of nearly 50% in spending on goods such as motor vehicles and groceries. Government consumption dropped 5.2%, which whacked 1.1% from overall GDP growth.

Unfortunately, while Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke insisted last week that any negative factors are "transitory," the data suggest otherwise. The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Composite Index was just the latest regional factory survey to suggest production is slowing. And as I mentioned in my last column, the Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index continues to decline to reflect this slowdown in manufacturing.

All of this hurts the job picture. Weekly jobless claims spiked to 429,000 last week, well above the previous week's 404,000 and the 390,000 that analysts were expecting. Current levels were last seen in January. Not only does this point to trouble in the April job report due out Friday, but it breaks a long downtrend from last summer that suggested economic healing.

A flawed idea from the start

I can't say I'm surprised. Last November, I wrote that QE2 threatened a repeat of the "Great Inflation era" that started in 1964, lasted 20 years and didn't end until inflation was at 15% and interest rates at 22%. In "Hiking inflation won't help, Ben," I wrote:

"It seems strange to have this discussion more than a year after the recession officially ended, after corporate profits have returned to pre-recession peaks, after the economy has created 1.6 million new jobs and after personal income has moved to new highs."

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Mail"},"omniAccount":"MSNPORTALSCP","ratingsControlId":"ratCntrlBinary","ratingsItemId":"scp:bbcdiscussion:f1995e62-d906-4c52-b3ce-9b2e0279c8f3","appUri":"http://social.msn.com/boards","pageUrl":"http://money.msn.com/investment-advice/how-the-fed-made-the-rich-richer-mirhaydari.aspx","ratingTags":["00120065-0000-0000-0000-000000000000","00000065-02a6-0000-0000-000000000000","ART"],"fblkShow":true,"fblkAppId":"","fblkRef":"","fblkTrkName":"","fblkTrkVal":"","twtShow":false,"twtTrkName":"","twtTrkVal":""}); }); /**/ 13CommentsNewestOldestBestWorstControversialRobert Arce  (RARELYCOMMENT) 2 hours ago

The article is promoting the idea that the historically low interest rates we have right now are good

and should remain low so that more people can afford homes.  The article also complains about the falling price of home values.   What is wrong with the housing market is exactly the opposite of what the article states.  The problem is not so much affordability but an imbalance between the value of the homes and the interest rates.  The banks are not lending because the price of homes is still too high and they don't want to get stuck with more underwater homes along the way.  Potential buyers are also not buying because they feel that homes are still overpriced and they are right.  Banks are also not lending because the rates on fixed mortgages is too low and in the event of substantial inflation they will not be able to sell the fixed mortgages as in the past because potential buyers of those fixed loans do not want a 30 fixed loan at 5% in their portfolio that is being paid off with devalued dollars.  The mortgage holding will essentially lose most of its real value over time because it is being paid off with devalued dollars.  The housing market will not turn around meaningfully until home prices come way down and interest rates are allowed to rise to more historical norms.  The interest rates are being kept artificially low.  This is the same problem of easy money that got us into this mess.  You cannot get yourself out of a bad situation with the same type of thinking and actions that got you into that situation in the first place.   

 

    0    0ReportSpamTrue Patriot6 hours ago

Of course the super rich got richer.  Our national wealth has become more and more concentrated over the past 30 years.  Today, the 400 wealthest Americans control the same amount of wealth as our poorest 150 million citizens.  The aristocracy buys the politicians who provide the ongoing tax breaks for the wealthy.  The shrinking middle class is forced to pay higher property taxes and sales taxes in order to keep taxes low for our wealthest citizens and corporations.  That is why most of us work hard our whole lives and have little to show for it. 

    6    0ReportSpamP.O. Carl6 hours agoHere is my tax formula.  A = total increase for individuals and corporations, no right offs or deductions.  B = total income for the government.  A multiplied by .07 = B  That is the governments budget that they have to live on just like everyone else.        1    0ReportSpamP.O. Carl6 hours agoWhat does it take to become a bank, so that I can borrow money from the FED for almost 0% interest?     0    0ReportSpamP.O. Carl6 hours ago

pocketprotector:  If the $100k a year or more income crowd pays 90% of the total income tax, that means that most taxpayers make over $100k.  Once again, I have to explain that it all depends on percent of an individuals income.  After itemizing my taxes, I paid 7% tax for 2010.  I do not make $100k or more a year.  Now if I had been GE, I would have paid ZERO tax, and would have received a 3.2 billion dollar refund.  We have the largest welfare for corporations in the world, and socialism for the very wealthy.  The numbers don't lie. 

 

     

    4    0ReportSpamActive RIA6 hours ago

  they will not let me tell you what i really think due to the spam blocker - in a nutshell, more useless, blathering conservative drivel clouds the real message.

 

yes, the elitists need to be controlled and stopped.

 

yes, the career politicians need to ne removed from office.

 

all of that one-sided nonsensical Democrat-bashing makes your post seem like some hitlerized propaganda message.  try a few shots of bourbon, watch about ten hours of msnbc and some comedy central political shows, knock your head on the wall a few times to re-start and then try again with something more coherent.

    2    2ReportSpamdendl6 hours ago

Okay Anthony,

Why are you telling us what we've been telling you for the past two years?

Chad in CO

    2    0ReportSpampocketprotector7 hours agoOk, so the QE's helped the stock market increase which benefited the over $100k crowd the most.  Let's not forget they also pay 90% of the income taxes and also do the vast majority of all spending.  So, what was so wrong with that?  Should they instead have GIVEN the money away to the 47% who don't pay any taxes much like has been happening for years via the welfare slanted income tax code?  Is that what you wanted them to do----the result which has been a $14 trillion deficit doing things that way?     2    8ReportSpamtell what you think8 hours agoQE1 and QE2 was one of the Liberal agenda tricks to drive up the price of oil.  It devalues the dollar and drives up oil.  They will stop at nothing to get their green renewable energy agenda accompliced.  High oil makes green energy more feasible and competitive.  They do not care about the masses and how it affects them.  O'bama puts a moratorium on deep water drilling, than ties up the permits for shallow water, and land drilling as well.  The Democrats have prevented drilling in Anwar on the N.Coast of Alaska.  Are you ever going to take your family and visit Anwar?  O'bama rescinds his agreement to allow drilling off the E.Coast.  He refuses to get behind Nat. Gas in a big way.  Still a Hydro carbon. He wants carbon credit tax, which is a pass through tax to the people.  The rich than have a new trading venue established with tax payer money.  Hillary heads a commission to educate the masses in the middle east, via the internet, on how to organize and stage a revolt against oppressive regimes.  She educates them on how to communicate after the regime shuts off the internet and the cell phones.  No thought given as to whether or not the next regime will be friendly to the U.S.  This too drives up the price of oil.  Tax incentives for green tech and the products they will sell to the masses.  This means less revenue to pay down the national debt.  The elititists gain from the high price of oil, from new industries for green renewable energy, and from trading in carbon credits.  They report inventory levels on oil and distillates, which are easily manipulated.  This is designed to convince the masses of the world, and the speculators, that there is a shortage, thus driving up price.  Why don't they report gallons sold at the pump?  They are collecting federal tax revenue based on gallons sold.  Little harder to manipulate these figures.  The elititists are behind all of this.  They have created the great lie of global warming due to the burning of hydro carbons.  If they can convince the masses of this, they profit from all of the above.  O'bama forms a commission to look into the manipulation of speculation in oil.  He wants us to think he is going to do something about it.  He is the problem.  These elititists prop up people on a ballot, get them elected, and they become puppets on a string to accomplice all of this.  They also own or control analytical companies, rating agencies(which caused the financial crisis), investment houses turned advisors, news organization, media outlets, and popular internet search engine sites.  This is control of information, which is a very powerful thing.  Vote these bums out.  Watch how your elected one votes and if he does not deserve your vote, never vote for that person again.  New faces take longer to corrupt.  It is mainly the incumbent/career politicians, and the tree hugging Liberals who have taken over and destroyed the Democratic party, that are in on this.  Most of all, VOTE !!!     4    9ReportSpamFrank Morton  (Starlight19) 8 hours ago

Imagine how it would stimulate the economy if all government guaranteed loans student, home and others were made directly for a small interest rate. That would leave trillions with the people instead of giving it to thieving bankers.

We need to eliminate the federal reserve bank and write off anything they claim we owe. They are nothing but giant leeches that do more damage than all terrorist combined.

    12    2ReportSpamFrank Morton  (Starlight19) 8 hours ago

Our 4 biggest banks have 8 trillion in assets and still get billions in 0% loans to play the market and make foreign investments. The federal reserve bank are nothing but an atm of the big rich too rape the people. Bernanke and his gag of thieves need to go.

  When you pay 600k for a 200k home and that loan is guaranteed by the government you are robbed. We can no longer afford this socialism for the rich. When both parties rushed to bail out the giant gang of pigs they immediately got 18 billion in bonuses instead of prison terms; At that time Bernanke told a Senate committee to go to hell and he would do what he pleased with the tax payers money. He also, told them that was what they intended.

  The people are in bad need of a government. These two parties are owed by banks, wall street, big corporations and blood sucking insurance. If we don't demand real change, we will shortly be in depression and chaos.

    12    1ReportSpamBull Rider9 hours agoSurprise! Surprise! Surprise. And here's another! The banks are not lending, they are hording the money. Ease borrowing? How about easing lending, that may help.How about a BANK of UNCLE SAM? Instead of the pig banksters getting free money and hording it, Uncle Sam can pay out at 4 and 5%; lend at 8 and 9% and screw the bankster pigs.And how would Uncle Sam like to hold my mortgage? I'd love to pay the tax payers my interest than hand it over to the pig banksters on a silver platter.     8    1ReportSpamMMCI112 hours agoI am an employer and an investor. I will sign pay checks tomorrow morning for less people than in the past. But our sales are increasing! It is harder in a free economy to make something useful that people will pay money to buy.Under a Liberal regulated economy it is easier to make money conforming to regulations that raise prices for those "who know the game", selling useless things people are forced to buy due to government regulations.You working people do not know the damage you did to yourselves putting Obama in office. We are doing well, charging high prices for regulations, buying useless real estate, de-capitalizing my company to buy gold, laying off people, and fiddling with higher taxes.Anyone get one of those resume killing Green jobs yet? Tell me about it.     10    12ReportSpamAdd a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. 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