Doug Kass is a leading markets commentator, and writes daily for RealMoney Silver. This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on May 9 at 7:35 a.m. EDT.
I am less preoccupied than most with the chaotic downside to precious metals prices last week. To me, it's little more than a speculative sideshow. Es update The Market Needs an Energy Fix Aggressive Trades for Cautious Times
And it's a circus I prefer not to be entertained by or purchase tickets to.
Rather, other key factors are guiding me toward expecting a near-term slowdown in the rate of domestic economic growth and for a limited upside to the U.S. stock market.
From my perch, the body of the evidence is that the rally off of the generational low of March 2009 is now growing long in the tooth.
It is not likely the end of our investment world as we know it but, on market rallies (which we might have after last week's market weakness), I would continue to yell and roar but sell some more.
At best, the upside to equities seems restricted, and at worst, we could see apocalypse soon as the outlooks for both the economy and for corporate profits grow more ambiguous.
For nearly a year now, I have cautioned that a period of lumpy, uneven, and inconsistent economic growth is the most likely outcome, and all the data points I see encourage me to maintain that forecast.
This is a setting in which corporate managers and investment managers will find hard to navigate.
Err on the side of conservatism as the market's waters look increasingly choppy.
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