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Jeff Reeves
May 12, 2011, 12:01 a.m. EDT
By Jeff Reeves
ROCKVILLE, Md. (MarketWatch) "” A lot of folks don't put a lot of credence in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It's an antiquated group of 30 blue chips that reads less like a list of stocks to watch and more like a list of stocks past their prime.
There's General Electric /quotes/comstock/13*!ge/quotes/nls/ge GE -1.03% , which first joined the index in 1896, and adjusted for splits is barely above where it traded back in 1996. Then there's tech's fading star Cisco /quotes/comstock/15*!csco/quotes/nls/csco CSCO -0.06% and big pharma's big flop Pfizer /quotes/comstock/13*!pfe/quotes/nls/pfe PFE -0.24% . Both represent stocks that were good investments in the 1990s that should have been sold before the dot-com bubble burst "” but hardly represent Wall Street's best and brightest in 2011.
Nick Timiraos reports banks are negotiating a settlement with state and federal officials over improper mortgage and foreclosure practices. Banks suggest a $5 billion settlement, but officials seek $20 billion.
It's no surprise that most investors malign this list of sleepy old megacaps. An analysis of the 30 components for the year to date reveals that most aren't putting up a lot of fireworks.
But don't let the components that are plodding stolidly along fool you. There are a handful of big winners and big losers that stick out.
And here they are (based on market close Tuesday):
With a 22.5% gain so far in 2011, Boeing /quotes/comstock/13*!ba/quotes/nls/ba BA -0.57% is cruising at yet another 52-week high and its highest valuation in about three years. Its recent earnings report at the end of April showed the company is healthier than some, with a 13% jump in profit and a big backlog of orders that now totals almost $330 billion. The stock was beaten down on bad press, from competition overseas to yet another round of delays for its 787 Dreamliner. But if earnings are any indication, these worries appear to have been overstated "” and shares have come zooming back in 2011. Read about four soaring aerospace and defense stocks that defy budget cuts on InvestorPlace.com.
Caterpillar /quotes/comstock/13*!cat/quotes/nls/cat CAT -2.56% was the toast of the Dow in 2010, with a stunning 64% gain in the calendar year as machinery orders and industrial activity picked up again in the wake of the Great Recession. But if you think CAT has plateaued, think again "” it has tacked on 20.5% gains since Jan. 1. After revenue jumped 30% from 2009 to 2010, experts are estimating year-over-year growth of 25% to 30% again in fiscal 2011. The company has walloped earnings estimates for four straight quarters. That kind of performance isn't uncommon for small caps, but for a blue chip like this to pleasantly surprise analysts regularly means that even the "smart money" isn't giving CAT enough credit right now.
I know, I was just dogging Pfizer a moment ago for its lost decade. But in the short term, with a 19.5% gain so far in 2011, the company has proven itself. Some of the uptick makes sense, since generic-drug competition and blockbuster drug expirations are hardly new developments in the pharmaceutical industry. Also the 2009 buyout of Wyeth provided a much-needed shot in the arm "” and drove a 34% increase in 2010 revenue over the previous fiscal year. The plump 3.8% dividend is also a selling point in these uncertain times. Will Pfizer keep it up? Personally I doubt it. But I wouldn't have banked on a Dow-doubling run so far in 2011, so maybe the drugmaker has some more tricks up its sleeve in the short term.
Poor Microsoft. /quotes/comstock/15*!msft/quotes/nls/msft MSFT -1.21% Even the Skype buyout news didn't move the needle on Tuesday. To think that a decade years ago the rage was anti-trust talk about Bill Gates and his Windows empire and now little old Apple /quotes/comstock/15*!aapl/quotes/nls/aapl AAPL -0.64% is racking up more in annual revenue. While Windows is still dominant and Microsoft certainly isn't going anywhere, the juxtaposition with Apple is telling.
While MSFT repeatedly stumbled with its Windows Phone software, the iPhone became dominant. While Apple has been jumping into the corporate space, sluggish enterprise IT spending has held back legacy software like Windows and Office from gaining much ground. While Apple redefined the computer with its iPad, most people haven't really noticed any Microsoft operating system since Windows XP.
Aside from a brief pop in late 2007 as the market peaked, MSFT stock hasn't touched $35 since the dot-com boom and with an 8% slide in 2011 is now right back where it was in the summer of 2009. Meanwhile the Dow has added almost 50% in the last two years and is up 10% year-to-date. So much for the evil empire of Microsoft. Read why Microsoft's Skype deal could pay off in the long run on InvestorPlace.com.
I am one of those "suckers" who bought Bank of America /quotes/comstock/13*!bac/quotes/nls/bac BAC -0.24% in December anticipating bluer skies for the financial sector and the American economy as a whole (and full disclosure, I still am long in the stock). Unfortunately, Wall Street doesn't much care about any analysis from me or anyone else, because the common perception is that the books are so cooked that there's no real way of knowing how bad BAC stock is.
Wall Street hates uncertainty. And what's worse, what little we know is that there are still billions of dollars worth of non-performing toxic mortgages on the books. The prevailing notion is that Bank of America is a zombie bank posing as a recovered company, and the Fed's refusal of its recent dividend request only reinforces that notion.
It's a dead heat between B. of A. and Microsoft, with both down 8% year to date. Read why Bank of America is one of the 10 Best Stocks for 2011 on InvestorPlace.com.
Cisco is behind some of the server and communications technology at the very heart of the Internet, but is one of those tech success stories that is now starting to gather dust. While it's daunting to change vendors and Cisco is king with a 70% of the enterprise router business, the company also has gotten lazy and bloated. Cisco's labyrinthine corporate structure reportedly boasted 59 "internal committees" before CEO John Chambers announced yet another restructuring in April.
Smaller, hungrier companies like Juniper Networks /quotes/comstock/13*!jnpr/quotes/nls/jnpr JNPR +1.75% and Acme Packet /quotes/comstock/15*!apkt/quotes/nls/apkt APKT -2.81% have successfully challenged Cisco on its own turf, and the lumbering tech giant has been slow to react. It's no wonder shares are 12.1% in the hole this year despite significant gains for the broader Dow.
For the curious, here's a complete list of the 30 Dow components /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed DJIA -1.02% since Jan. 1 from worst to best returns.
"June contract for oil falls more than 1% to trade around the $97-a-barrel level http://on.mktw.net/jMHk58" 3:24 a.m. EDT, May 12, 2011 from MarketWatch
"Majority of European bourses trade down around 1% http://on.mktw.net/kT0O9O" 2:08 a.m. EDT, May 12, 2011 from MarketWatch
"Hong Kong stocks open lower, with resources, banks weak; Hang Seng Index down 0.9% http://on.mktw.net/mee7nT" 8:36 p.m. EDT, May 11, 2011 from MarketWatch
"Japan stocks open sharply lower after U.S. losses, but Toyota gains; Nikkei Average off 1% http://on.mktw.net/isnjj6" 7:06 p.m. EDT, May 11, 2011 from MarketWatch
"Several U.S. senators cast doubt on AT&T's reasons to acquire T-Mobile USA http://bit.ly/kURSF5" 5:11 p.m. EDT, May 11, 2011 from MarketWatch
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