Somebody Is Long A Lot of Gold Calls

This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on May 1 at 7:24 a.m. EDT.

Over the course of the past few months, one large buyer has accumulated approximately 50,000 gold call option contracts -- most of the calls are strikes between $1,600 and $1,800 an ounce and for expirations between August and December. In total, as much as $50 million in call premium has been paid out by the purchaser. As the gold futures market is roughly 10x to 15x the size of the gold options market, this is a huge bet in absolute dollars relative to the liquidity of the market. Considering that the calls are well out-of-the-money (gold, on a futures basis, today trades at $1,512), the call option is all premium and, as such, is a decaying asset. So, given the size of the purchase, the buyer is not likely an individual hedge fund -- more likely, it is a central bank or a sovereign fund. It is interesting to note that all of the buyer's options mature after QE2, so the buyer might believe, for example, that the institution of QE3 holds a greater probability to be implemented than the consensus is currently forecasting. The buyer is clearly betting on a large run-up in the price of gold during the summer and fall months. With all this leverage in the hands of one owner, a sharp price appreciation in the price of gold could cause the shorts (on the other side of the call option trade) to continuously buy futures and further contribute to a rising gold price in order to maintain a flat delta. Doug Kass writes daily for RealMoney Silver, a premium bundle service from TheStreet.com. For a free trial to RealMoney Silver and exclusive access to Mr. Kass's daily trading diary, please click here. Add Comment Tweet Doug Kass is the president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. adsonar_placementId=1341527;adsonar_pid=879768;adsonar_ps=-1;adsonar_zw=600;adsonar_zh=280;adsonar_jv='ads.adsonar.com'; try { function DM_onSegsAvailable(segs, cust_id) { for (var i=0;i //* Global Functions *// function metadataRegisterNS(ns){ var nsParts = ns.split("."); var root = window; for(var i=0; i Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note 12,356.21 1,316.28 2,746.16 31.23 Oil * 112.16 DOWN 25.05 DOWN 1.09 DOWN 12.74 DOWN 0.11 10 Yr 3.12% SPDR Gold 148.59 -0.20% -0.08% -0.46% -0.35% Data delayed 20 minutes Most Popular Stories and Tools var randnum = Math.floor(Math.random() * 100) if (randnum < 45) { document.write("Ex-Dividend Date Calendar"); document.write("Cramer's Latest Picks from Mad Money"); document.write("Bank Safety Ratings and Screener"); document.write("Top-Rated Stocks"); document.write("Highest-Yielding Dividend Stocks"); document.write("Warren Buffett's Portfolio"); } else { document.write("10 Best Dow Dividend Stocks"); document.write("Top 10 'Buy'-Rated Stocks Under $5"); document.write("10 Cities Unaffected by a Bad Economy"); document.write("13 Ugliest Phones of the Mobile Era"); document.write("10 Celebrities Who Lost Big Financially"); document.write("Paulson's 10 Best New Investment Ideas"); } Twitter Facebook RSS Mobile App adsonar_placementId=1341369;adsonar_pid=879768;adsonar_ps=-1;adsonar_zw=320;adsonar_zh=280;adsonar_jv='ads.adsonar.com'; Brokerage Partners Free Newsletters from TheStreet

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