A Golden Age For Natural Gas? Two Caveats

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Are we entering a golden age of gas?

The answer is yes, according to a report with just that title released on Monday by the International Energy Agency â?? as long as the price for natural gas remains low and governments adopt strong regulations to overcome environmental concerns about hydraulic fracturing.

The report projects that natural gas could make up 25 percent of the global energy mix in 2035, up from 21 percent now, replacing coal, nuclear and some power from renewable sources like wind and solar. The drivers of the fuelâ??s growing popularity are uncertainty about nuclear power after the recent Japanese disaster, an anticipated boom in demand from China and, most important, the widespread development of gas fields from unconventional sources like shale rock.

The I.E.A. study made the point that natural gas deposits are spread around the world and offer many countries more energy security. But it cautioned that â??an increased share of natural gas in the global energy mix is far from enough on its own to put us on a carbon emissions path consistent with an average global temperature rise of no more than 2 degrees Celsius,â? or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. The new wave of drilling has produced a sudden glut of gas in the United States, but it has also set off controversy over the drilling method known as hydraulic fracturing, the high-pressure use of water, sand and chemicals to blast fractures into hard shale to unlock natural gas.

Hydraulic fracturing has been used for decades, but it is now combined with horizontal drilling, raising the the possibility that chemicals from fracking fluids could contaminate local water supplies. Some experts have also cautioned that drilling in shale can vent methane â?? a powerful greenhouse gas â?? into the atmosphere, undermining the argument that natural gas is environmentally more friendly than other fossil fuels.

I caught up with Fatih Birol, the I.E.A.â??s chief economist, the other day and asked him if environmental concerns were a major impediment to greatly expanded production of natural gas. He acknowledged that they were a hurdle but added, â??The good news is most of the issues related to water and chemical use and the greenhouse gas issue can be addressed by better regulations, stiff regulations and companies using the best practices.â?

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