It Might Be Time to Talk Double-Dip Recession

FORTUNE -- Last year I dropped by a birthday party for Nouriel Roubini (a.k.a. "Dr. Doom"), the New York University economist who shot to fame after predicting, in 2006, a housing and credit bust. Somebody brought out a cake. On top of it was a big frosted "W," representing the double-dip recession that Roubini had been trumpeting since the summer of 2009, when the recovery had hardly begun. Beaming, he blew out the candles and poured champagne. But as the global rebound proved more durable than he (and others) expected, Roubini backtracked. Last August he put the probability of a double dip at 40%, which meant it no longer qualified as a genuine prediction. Going into this year, he said the U.S. economy would expand by close to 3%. And Roubini wasn't alone. The economics group at Goldman Sachs, which had been notably bearish, reversed course and said GDP would rise by 4% in 2011.