Greece Brings Us Back To the Brink of Disaster

6/16/2011 8:35 PM ET

By Jim Jubak

The fallout from derivatives -- this time tied to Greek debt -- could trigger global financial contagion. How could we be dumb enough to let it happen again?

Related topics: AIG, insurance, economy, financial crisis, Jim Jubak

I understand why the Greek debt crisis is a big issue in Europe. The European Central Bank holds about $200 billion in Greek debt. Regional banks in Germany have enough of the bonds stashed in their portfolios that some technically bankrupt banks could be forced to declare actual bankruptcy. The wage cuts and tax increases that have sent tens of thousands of Greeks into the streets to confront helmeted, baton-wielding riot police hang over workers in Portugal, Ireland, Belgium . . . .

But why should the rest of the world care? Greece is the 39th-largest economy in the world, according to the CIA World Factbook, once you correct its gross domestic product for differences in purchasing power. That puts it below Nigeria, Venezuela and the Philippines -- and just above the Ukraine. If any of those countries were teetering on the edge of default, would world financial markets blink?

What are financial derivatives?

Here's why we should care: derivatives. The same toxic stuff that brought down Lehman Brothers and that was just a bailout away from taking down American International Group (AIG, news) and, perhaps, the global financial system, is at it again.

Mario Draghi, who will replace Jean-Claude Trichet as head of the European Central Bank, said as much at his confirmation hearing on June 14. Who knows what the effect of a Greek default would be, he said to the European Parliament. Sure, everybody who owns Greek bonds is insured in the derivatives market using credit-default swaps against the risk of default. But "who are the owners of credit-default swaps? Who has insured others against a default of the country? We could have a chain of contagion."

Jim Jubak

In other words, according to this delightfully blunt Italian banker, three years after derivatives almost destroyed the global financial system, they again pose an unknown risk to global finances.

This, to me, is the most troubling aspect of the Greek debt crisis. We've wasted a crisis that took the financial system to the brink of disaster. We don't have any better idea today of where the risk is, because derivatives still represent a dark place on the map. We might as well label it "Here, there be dragons."

The investor who buys a credit-default swap is looking for insurance against a default of the underlying debt instrument. The seller of the swap offers a guarantee of some payment against that default.

/*

In the run-up to the collapse of the mortgage-backed debt market, everybody was looking for this kind of insurance. Everybody wanted the extra yield that came with these bundles of mortgages. Even though they may have had doubts about the claim that bundling together some risky subprime mortgages produced a low-risk AAA-rated security, buyers were willing to swallow their worries because they could buy a credit-default swap contract that transferred the risk to some other party. Even after paying the premium for the credit-default-swap insurance, these subprime-mortgage-backed securities paid more than similarly rated government bonds.

At their peak, credit-default swaps had a notional value of $62 trillion, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.

Why "notional" value? Well, there was no way to know what these derivatives were actually worth because there was no market for most of them. No one knew how good such swaps were as insurance, either, because no one knew who the counterparties were to many of them, how much of the risk those counterparties had sold off to others or how much collateral stood behind any given swap.

Outsiders didn't stand a chance at valuing these derivatives or calculating their risk, but, it turned out, neither did the players themselves. American International Group, for example, held a derivatives portfolio with a notional value of $400 billion before the crisis. In a December 2007 conference call, the company said that a write-off of all its credit-default swaps rated A or below would produce a loss of just $421 million.

Nine months later the company was desperately looking to raise $80 billion to prevent a default on its credit-default swaps. The derivatives had tumbled so far in value that AIG needed to raise massive amounts of cash to pay off buyers of the derivative insurance it had sold and to put up more collateral to back its swaps. The U.S. government finally decided to provide the cash out of fear that an AIG default would send the value of other swaps plunging, wiping out some large portfolios and rendering worthless the derivative insurance other investors were counting on.

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Mail"},"omniAccount":"MSNPORTALSCP","ratingsControlId":"ratCntrlBinary","ratingsItemId":"scp:bbcdiscussion:460d215e-0d10-444e-9cac-401cda145b79","appUri":"http://social.msn.com/boards","pageUrl":"http://money.msn.com/investing/back-to-the-brink-of-disaster-jubak.aspx","ratingTags":["00120065-0000-0000-0000-000000000000","00000065-02a6-0000-0000-000000000000","ART"],"fblkShow":true,"fblkAppId":"","fblkRef":"","fblkTrkName":"","fblkTrkVal":"","twtShow":false,"twtTrkName":"","twtTrkVal":""}); }); /**/ 13CommentsNewestOldestBestWorstControversialSom3on3ls326 minutes agoThis is why I like Jubak.  While everyone wonders why we care about Greece, he explains it.  He may sound doom and gloom but at least he tells it how it is.     3    0ReportSpamKOO1 hour ago

Mr. Jubak, how are you any different than the short sellers who put out negative press just to make another dollar off those of us who believe things will get better and choose to hold stocks?

 You are depressing. You are killing the stock market. Who cares about a bunch of Greeks who don't pay their fair share of taxes. Their government needs to ramp up efforts to cut out tax cheating and modernize their tax collection system. End of discussion. No more Greece stories. Why don't you focus on the positive things coming out of Europe like off-the-grid homes, electric and hydrogen cars, fashion, medical advances, gene-based therapies, you know...all of the things that the American military-industrial complex is trying to keep us from getting?

    0    4ReportSpamX Marcus2 hours agoFor God's sake, Mr. Jubak, take off the Eor mask and give it a rest, the sky is not ALWAYS falling.  Perhaps you could shut the blazing hell up for a while and not fan the flames of a financial apocalypse.  Whaddya say?     2    6ReportSpamhavasu462 hours agoThe repeal of provisions of the Glass–Steagall Act of 1933 by the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act effectively removed the separation that previously existed between Wall Street investment banks and depository banks. This repeal directly contributed to the severity of the Financial crisis of 2007–2010 by allowing banks to gamble with their depositor's money               Just in case you are completely uninformed?     5    1ReportSpamhavasu462 hours ago

 The drinks are on me if Greece goes and takes down 2 big French banks and hopefully Goldman Sucks with it.  That would be a perfect epitaph for EU socialism. 

    4    2ReportSpamkc brewer2 hours agojubak is clueless.  he's blaming cds' as the problem.  the problem is simple, greece has too much debt, and they can't service the debt.  the cds' moved the risk from the debt buyer to the cds buyer.  total default risk is the same.         2    4ReportSpamhavasu463 hours ago Banks should not be allowed to create or trade in derivatives, period, end of discussion. Any enterprise that creates or trades in derivatives should not be allowed to own a bank.  BAC, C, GS, JPM and WFC should have to separate their banks and investment activities in independent enterprises. Same goes for all foreign enterprises. Same goes for insuance companies, no banking, no security creation activities, And that smart **** Jamie Dimon says we got too much regulation while he racks in $20 million a year and the taxpayer bails out the banks. Bring back Glass-Steagall now!     4    2ReportSpamSomeone  (russaroni515) 3 hours agoAll this talk o bailouts, etc. Let the monetary system crash and burn. You cant hurt free people as they have nothing to lose. No more mortgages, rebidding for prime real estate as the banks no longer hold the note, and alas, people paid rediculous wages to police and pick up garbage will no longer be possible. Back to basics, 2012 style. i am ready. Are you? Buy acreage and guns. Have plenty of ammo cause youre gonna need it.     4    5ReportSpamdendl4 hours ago

Mr. Jubak,

If by "WE" you mean us middle class common sense folk. Then "we" is powerless. We are being black mailed by a powerful world wide elite who are robbing the rest of the world. And in the U.S. a whole lot of people "drank the kool aid." believing that they were electing a solution, when in fact, they discovered later that their white knight was beholdened to the elite they were trying to over throw.

So, there goes the democratic method. Hey Jubak!! Guess what will be the next method?

Chad in CO

    9    5ReportSpamChuck Roast4 hours agoI like reading Jim Jubak's articles every now and then to be reminded of what less mainstream, more original, and more prescient analysts -- like Bill Fleckenstein -- were talking about years before we get there.     7    1ReportSpamme21594 hours ago

This might be a once in a lifetime opportunity to allow Greece to default and see what happens. Oh,..of course there are predictions of end-of-the-world as we know it, but I think it's time to allow companies like AIG to fail, and fail spectacularly, simply to get the attention of brokers and bankers that they do not, in fact, rule the world. The 2008 crisis didn't seem to snap them out of their stupor, so maybe a 2X4 in the form of a massive default might get their attention,...finally​. 

 

On the other hand, it might take more than a mere collapse to clue in  these best-and-brightest wizards simply because they already have years of parents treating them as if the world operates to their music, and schools and companies following suit, all to make them happy and the company's profits zoom upward and onward in the damn the torpedo's, full steam ahead mantra. 

    7    1ReportSpamTravler3444 hours ago

Greed is letting it happen again. Lack of controls is helping also.

 

    3    2ReportSpamBull Rider5 hours ago How could we be dumb enough to let it happen again?Who is this "WE" you're talking about?     30    1ReportSpamAdd a commentReportPlease help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. 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Men's biggest fashion mistakes

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In the run-up to the collapse of the mortgage-backed debt market, everybody was looking for this kind of insurance. Everybody wanted the extra yield that came with these bundles of mortgages. Even though they may have had doubts about the claim that bundling together some risky subprime mortgages produced a low-risk AAA-rated security, buyers were willing to swallow their worries because they could buy a credit-default swap contract that transferred the risk to some other party. Even after paying the premium for the credit-default-swap insurance, these subprime-mortgage-backed securities paid more than similarly rated government bonds.

At their peak, credit-default swaps had a notional value of $62 trillion, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.

Why "notional" value? Well, there was no way to know what these derivatives were actually worth because there was no market for most of them. No one knew how good such swaps were as insurance, either, because no one knew who the counterparties were to many of them, how much of the risk those counterparties had sold off to others or how much collateral stood behind any given swap.

Outsiders didn't stand a chance at valuing these derivatives or calculating their risk, but, it turned out, neither did the players themselves. American International Group, for example, held a derivatives portfolio with a notional value of $400 billion before the crisis. In a December 2007 conference call, the company said that a write-off of all its credit-default swaps rated A or below would produce a loss of just $421 million.

Nine months later the company was desperately looking to raise $80 billion to prevent a default on its credit-default swaps. The derivatives had tumbled so far in value that AIG needed to raise massive amounts of cash to pay off buyers of the derivative insurance it had sold and to put up more collateral to back its swaps. The U.S. government finally decided to provide the cash out of fear that an AIG default would send the value of other swaps plunging, wiping out some large portfolios and rendering worthless the derivative insurance other investors were counting on.

Mr. Jubak, how are you any different than the short sellers who put out negative press just to make another dollar off those of us who believe things will get better and choose to hold stocks?

 You are depressing. You are killing the stock market. Who cares about a bunch of Greeks who don't pay their fair share of taxes. Their government needs to ramp up efforts to cut out tax cheating and modernize their tax collection system. End of discussion. No more Greece stories. Why don't you focus on the positive things coming out of Europe like off-the-grid homes, electric and hydrogen cars, fashion, medical advances, gene-based therapies, you know...all of the things that the American military-industrial complex is trying to keep us from getting?

 The drinks are on me if Greece goes and takes down 2 big French banks and hopefully Goldman Sucks with it.  That would be a perfect epitaph for EU socialism. 

Mr. Jubak,

If by "WE" you mean us middle class common sense folk. Then "we" is powerless. We are being black mailed by a powerful world wide elite who are robbing the rest of the world. And in the U.S. a whole lot of people "drank the kool aid." believing that they were electing a solution, when in fact, they discovered later that their white knight was beholdened to the elite they were trying to over throw.

So, there goes the democratic method. Hey Jubak!! Guess what will be the next method?

Chad in CO

This might be a once in a lifetime opportunity to allow Greece to default and see what happens. Oh,..of course there are predictions of end-of-the-world as we know it, but I think it's time to allow companies like AIG to fail, and fail spectacularly, simply to get the attention of brokers and bankers that they do not, in fact, rule the world. The 2008 crisis didn't seem to snap them out of their stupor, so maybe a 2X4 in the form of a massive default might get their attention,...finally​. 

 

On the other hand, it might take more than a mere collapse to clue in  these best-and-brightest wizards simply because they already have years of parents treating them as if the world operates to their music, and schools and companies following suit, all to make them happy and the company's profits zoom upward and onward in the damn the torpedo's, full steam ahead mantra. 

Greed is letting it happen again. Lack of controls is helping also.

 

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[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks faltered after fighting through premarket selling pressure before a late rebound effort made for a mixed finish. ... More

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