Today is largely about option expiries, so we thought we'd take the opportunity to sit on our hands and, instead, have a look at the "Big Picture".
TMM reckon that the current state of the World can be described as follows:
- The US: The slowdown is dramatic (more on this below) but positive actual GDP prints, a Pavlovian dog-like response in the form of dip-buying on weakness (learned over the past two years), and a belief in the Fed coming to the rescue have prevented both the PhD and punting community from embracing a negative view.
- Europe: Smoke is coming out of the tail pipe, kangaroo-ing down the the road. Going to break down soon.
- China: "DON'T TALK ABOUT ANYTHING NEGATIVE!" as China is the only hope the West has. It seems to TMM as though punters are looking through to the peak in inflation and holding onto the soft-landing view - something they sense from the fact that most commentaries on China they receive seem to talk about how too many people are fearful of a hard landing/inflation etc... where is the *real* consensus?
